Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $86,000 December 8-14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda9dae72b587f7414f3f45b5d4e8a595cfa92ee84376d4d97dc7cac1c4cfdc8d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $299,861
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $285,364
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $299,861 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56db…750bbacked Yes | 4c | 16,466$636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$635.73 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0995…620dbacked Yes | 16c | 15,496$2,537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,536.84 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Yes | 12c | 15,408$1,868 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,867.66 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed Yes | 3c | 10,557$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.39 | 280 | 21.1%59 W · 221 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4124…8af2backed Yes | 14c | 7,408$1,037 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,037.12 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeecd…4fefbacked Yes | 6c | 6,121$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.67 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe9…bb0abacked Yes | 3c | 5,417$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.57 | 167 | 29.3%49 W · 118 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97bc…30cdbacked Yes | 11c | 4,366$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 67 | 23.9%16 W · 51 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +111.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62f5…eaaebacked Yes | 18c | 3,195$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.9 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc122…731fbacked Yes | 17c | 3,022$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.47 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb63a…4064backed Yes | 9c | 2,889$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.04 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 5c | 2,538$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.4 | 299 | 9.4%28 W · 271 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3080…fa4abacked Yes | 12c | 2,500$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 22c | 1,605$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.28 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6001…f848backed Yes | 8c | 1,306$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.86 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5576…622fbacked Yes | 7c | 1,262$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.18 | 35 | 2.9%1 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd980…5be0backed Yes | 21c | 1,230$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.23 | 112 | 10.7%12 W · 100 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +120.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 5c | 1,106$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.24 | 143 | 1.4%2 W · 141 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 7c | 1,021$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.83 | 107 | 3.7%4 W · 103 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcef…7388backed Yes | 7c | 1,011$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.6 | 78 | 1.3%1 W · 77 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 6cpaid | -86.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 10c | 1,008$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.19 | 44 | 11.4%5 W · 39 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f31…4dccbacked Yes | 17c | 1,000$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6172…bb67backed Yes | 38c | 1,000$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 954.61$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.49 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 6c | 923.76$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.51 | 120 | 3.3%4 W · 116 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes | 15c | 914.24$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.49 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x933e…901fbacked Yes | 2c | 822.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 7c | 819.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.5 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 7c | 799.96$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 212 | 5.7%12 W · 200 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 5c | 677.63$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.74 | 146 | 3.4%5 W · 141 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7bf…7758backed Yes | 15c | 669.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84c4…f897backed Yes | 11c | 572.71$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa29b…a0b8backed Yes | 47c | 529.98$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.09 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x531e…d23bbacked Yes | 2c | 524.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe653…4594backed Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.47 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -3.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4739…33c9backed Yes | 10c | 499.79$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.99 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae05…f5d1backed Yes | 15c | 485.57$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.24 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…e4dabacked Yes | 42c | 472.09$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf61f…3ce1backed Yes | 11c | 438.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 137 | 9.5%13 W · 124 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…604ebacked No | 76c | 382.91$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.9 | 172 | 29.7%51 W · 121 L | -13.0wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7532…c6fcbacked Yes | 28c | 300$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 112 | 65.2%73 W · 39 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab26…9656backed Yes | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa10e…0ddfbacked Yes | 4c | 262.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51e3…1b6dbacked Yes | 7c | 251.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a74…9043backed Yes | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f1…5743backed Yes | 42c | 233.33$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58ff…7e02backed Yes | 18c | 230$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5379…a031backed Yes | 30c | 228.78$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.35 | 105 | 55.2%58 W · 47 L | +11.7wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes | 5c | 226.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x269c…58c2backed Yes | 22c | 209.33$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 50 | 6%3 W · 47 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -84.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6d…8652backed Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +3.5wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +124.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x72c4…ee6cbacked Yes | 7c | 199.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 10c | 198.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 315 | 23.8%75 W · 240 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb9…44f5backed Yes | 8c | 187$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e0…4e5abacked Yes | 12c | 185$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4043…19cfbacked Yes | 17c | 170$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8245…e060backed Yes | 13c | 160$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe3af…1aa6backed Yes | 12c | 150$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 36 | 11.1%4 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed No | 72c | 128$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.94 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeadd…0215backed Yes | 14c | 126.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -47%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd143…83ecbacked Yes | 21c | 125.52$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.36 | 102 | 21.6%22 W · 80 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x740b…1d47backed No | 76c | 122.37$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x270b…1021backed Yes | 14c | 121.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb845…d46bbacked Yes | 10c | 119.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 15c | 111.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5f9f…c934backed Yes | 11c | 106.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4129…94e9backed Yes | 16c | 103$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e6…f87cbacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdcde…83c7backed Yes | 37c | 99.88$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.02 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff72…7db1backed Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd45…59b2backed No | 59c | 79.03$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.17 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6434…72b6backed Yes | 17c | 76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5c2…1750backed Yes | 44c | 66.32$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.18 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef0f…1dc9backed Yes | 24c | 51.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x835e…3f52backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07c2…d895backed No | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4271…4084backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37a3…d264backed No | 74c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 72cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca1…8becbacked No | 63c | 25.38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.39 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $86,000 December 8-14?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 December 8-14?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 December 8-14?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 December 8-14?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 December 8-14?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $84,000 December 8-14?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $88,000 December 8-14?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 December 8-14?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $102,000 December 8-14?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $104,000 December 8-14?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 December 8-14?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $96,000 December 8-14?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 December 8-14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.