Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $84,000 December 8-14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5765be8610088ed568104d4d06db515ce329f97b83a987e35e5e1d2d18afa220
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $125,423
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $122,799
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $125,423 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Yes | 13c | 12,446$1,612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,611.85 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56db…750bbacked Yes | 2c | 9,856$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.12 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed Yes | 2c | 5,250$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.75 | 280 | 21.1%59 W · 221 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfae6…c165backed Yes | 13c | 3,969$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.35 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf61f…3ce1backed Yes | 4c | 2,496$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.22 | 137 | 9.5%13 W · 124 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb63a…4064backed Yes | 5c | 2,363$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.83 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57df…4b6fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe9…bb0abacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 167 | 29.3%49 W · 118 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x707e…1960backed No | 79c | 1,639$1,294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.65 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd980…5be0backed Yes | 7c | 1,500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 112 | 10.7%12 W · 100 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +120.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 1,481$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.45 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes | 8c | 1,453$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.67 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6172…bb67backed Yes | 21c | 1,400$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.55 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 7c | 1,308$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.58 | 143 | 1.4%2 W · 141 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 12c | 1,205$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.63 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes | 2c | 1,097$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,074$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.37 | 299 | 9.4%28 W · 271 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c98…ef88backed Yes | 4c | 852.52$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 49 | 4.1%2 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e1…d761backed Yes | 2c | 543.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa737…68f8backed Yes | 3c | 466.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.19per pick | 36cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f1…5743backed Yes | 28c | 354.8$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 7c | 351.09$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.01 | 107 | 3.7%4 W · 103 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcef…7388backed Yes | 8c | 320$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 78 | 1.3%1 W · 77 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 6cpaid | -86.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a21…7915backed Yes | 5c | 254.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x500e…7c9abacked Yes | 5c | 216$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9a6…409cbacked No | 72c | 199.98$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…c01abacked Yes | 13c | 178.54$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.24 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeadd…0215backed Yes | 11c | 176.46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -47%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3af…1aa6backed Yes | 7c | 170$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 36 | 11.1%4 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f9f…c934backed Yes | 10c | 153.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef7f…2e4fbacked No | 80c | 150$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x269c…58c2backed Yes | 9c | 116.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 50 | 6%3 W · 47 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -84.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76e4…bac0backed Yes | 23c | 86.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x444e…aec4backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5379…a031backed Yes | 16c | 65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 105 | 55.2%58 W · 47 L | +11.7wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdd45…59b2backed No | 74c | 59.61$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca1…8becbacked No | 77c | 20.76$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.77 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46fc…7766backed No | 78c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.86 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $84,000 December 8-14?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 December 8-14?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 December 8-14?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 December 8-14?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 December 8-14?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $86,000 December 8-14?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $88,000 December 8-14?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 December 8-14?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $102,000 December 8-14?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $104,000 December 8-14?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 December 8-14?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $96,000 December 8-14?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 December 8-14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.