TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin reach $96,000 December 8-14?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$293,283
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$285,175

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $293,283 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 158 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd769…f90cbacked No64c33,111$21,216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,895.3719535.4%69 W · 126 L-13.0wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-38.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x50a5…bafebacked Yes2c23,135$491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491.1523411.1%26 W · 208 L+9.2wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+16.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f26…d136backed No79c10,137$7,992 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,145.551968.4%13 W · 6 L+3.4wins+0.18per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc289…f898backed Yes46c10,010$4,605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,604.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc50…4c82backed No66c6,967$4,625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,341.4658126.9%156 W · 425 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x20c7…5785backed Yes5c6,041$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30120%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6cd…77c1backed No68c5,968$4,055 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,912.51650%3 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-31.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0970…5ae4backed Yes10c5,500$533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$532.528021.1%59 W · 221 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes36c5,368$1,956 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,956.0587828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ff3…b0febacked Yes38c4,000$1,523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,522.857123.9%17 W · 54 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-23.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf371…9812backed Yes13c4,000$524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524.252832.1%9 W · 19 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-27.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb63a…4064backed Yes23c3,804$863 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$863.2617231.4%54 W · 118 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-15.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c3,284$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.961,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4bf…95d3backed No27c2,590$699 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,890.71323.1%3 W · 10 L-3.0wins-0.23per pick47cpaid-46.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0dcf…d95bbacked Yes49c2,245$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,100333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-57.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x95b9…4ed0backed Yes3c2,222$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.721428.6%4 W · 10 L+1.9wins+0.14per pick15cpaid+105.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc89b…f512backed Yes24c2,083$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001612.5%2 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick18cpaid-73%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x707e…1960backed No65c2,024$1,319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$705.3922550.2%113 W · 112 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf6dc…246ebacked No68c2,000$1,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$639.9913770.1%96 W · 41 L+9.4wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4671…ab35backed Yes2c1,794$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.2910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc44…1a25backed Yes13c1,615$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21090%0 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x80a0…5708backed Yes1c1,600$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.8147.1%1 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick15cpaid-40.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c03…604ebacked No65c1,314$851 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$463.1517229.7%51 W · 121 L-13.0wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-47.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes4c1,223$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$531431.4%2 W · 141 L-5.3wins-0.04per pick5cpaid-85.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfede…70c1backed Yes43c1,200$516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5161118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-35.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x62f5…eaaebacked Yes41c1,176$483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483.232330.4%7 W · 16 L-2.6wins-0.11per pick42cpaid-35.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3d0e…96ddbacked Yes2c1,175$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.69432.3%1 W · 42 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-92.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb32e…a46abacked Yes11c1,092$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.8520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd33…cf51backed No58c1,072$621 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451.074165.9%27 W · 14 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick63cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes2c1,030$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.952999.4%28 W · 271 L+12.5wins+0.04per pick5cpaid+22.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes6c1,011$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602125.7%12 W · 200 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a40…6d1bbacked Yes49c1,001$489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$488.53933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-34.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes5c853.17$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.421203.3%4 W · 116 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-61.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x988e…5558backed Yes49c816.33$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-23.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcef…7388backed Yes5c766.33$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.49781.3%1 W · 77 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick6cpaid-86.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ee2…46e1backed No69c749.97$515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.4440643.3%176 W · 230 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-12.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes5c745.19$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.731463.4%5 W · 141 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-57.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x71c7…36afbacked Yes26c742.5$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e52…9434backed Yes27c740.93$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2004920.4%10 W · 39 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick28cpaid-36.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xeaeb…996dbacked Yes2c706.31$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1340%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes6c700$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.31073.7%4 W · 103 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-53.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c88…2367backed Yes2c699.07$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc122…731fbacked Yes12c650$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7890%0 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1f4c…de22backed Yes6c632.23$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.0820%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc749…e803backed Yes17c585.24$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.491921.1%4 W · 15 L0.0wins0.00per pick21cpaid-44.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc95d…7984backed Yes3c566.46$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b9b…afddbacked Yes22c536.06$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120385.3%2 W · 36 L-3.3wins-0.09per pick14cpaid-74.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1120…929abacked Yes3c526.18$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes26c519.37$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.0355032.5%179 W · 371 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Yes29c505.56$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.854411.4%5 W · 39 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-39.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1e2…c86fbacked Yes20c500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.15per pick26cpaid-82.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6138…97a0backed Yes37c500$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1851747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+43.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a2b…b404backed Yes12c484.62$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60427.1%3 W · 39 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-58.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d1f…6f8dbacked Yes3c428.14$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1460%0 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x88df…a457backed Yes71c426$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.343330.3%10 W · 23 L-5.3wins-0.16per pick46cpaid-48.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0a59…3a52backed Yes24c416.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+179.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d68…db93backed Yes4c409.66$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.64120%0 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1dd…a272backed Yes26c380$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.711726.5%31 W · 86 L-10.1wins-0.09per pick35cpaid-24.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb165…c97ebacked No60c343$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.631866.7%12 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+15.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No60c336.12$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.816537.6%62 W · 103 L-21.0wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-38.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x93d7…7423backed Yes50c326.23$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.434848.6%169 W · 179 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0171…7f5ebacked Yes12c316.5$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.9880%0 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f40…3592backed Yes35c285$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe585…91b5backed No65c279$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.652857.1%16 W · 12 L-3.0wins-0.11per pick68cpaid-16.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x83ce…835cbacked No73c272.75$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.9626274.4%195 W · 67 L+45.7wins+0.17per pick57cpaid+31.7%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0xb646…0cf9backed No43c263.77$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.351833.3%6 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9a6…409cbacked No71c250$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.53773%27 W · 10 L+4.0wins+0.11per pick62cpaid+4.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa5f1…5743backed Yes22c250$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551747.1%8 W · 9 L+2.6wins+0.15per pick32cpaid+15.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xde41…dd3ebacked Yes13c250$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes4c248.13$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.83260%0 W · 26 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes30c239$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.0964812%78 W · 570 L-61.6wins-0.10per pick22cpaid-53.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x618f…7aedbacked Yes59c228.36$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.8420%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd7bf…7758backed No80c225$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+87.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f2a…de7dbacked Yes34c221$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.1412012.5%15 W · 105 L-8.9wins-0.07per pick20cpaid-55.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6cb9…44f5backed Yes16c202$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.627121.1%15 W · 56 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-42.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x83cc…bd5cbacked No55c200.55$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.3250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37a9…73e8backed No80c200$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401266.7%8 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7205…3377backed Yes49c200$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9820%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0d9…94c6backed Yes14c200$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287020%14 W · 56 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-10%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e68…357ebacked Yes21c190.48$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4060%0 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc924…afe2backed Yes21c190.48$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4040%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5701…463abacked Yes11c188.03$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20540%2 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.21per pick19cpaid+37.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xff72…7db1backed Yes11c181.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-34.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd45…59b2backed No70c180.46$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.015048%24 W · 26 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-14.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xadd6…b882backed No57c175$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.252100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+62.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6c27…494bbacked Yes12c166.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20283.6%1 W · 27 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick8cpaid-81.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x749c…65b8backed Yes33c156.32$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.811526.7%4 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-30.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e2f…b5d8backed Yes16c156.25$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2530%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdebb…25e8backed No63c155.57$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.21650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b2e…2adebacked Yes10c150$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1560%0 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d97…8eccbacked Yes45c149.67$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.35425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-57.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x80bd…7443backed Yes65c144.98$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.65475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick67cpaid+11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x71b1…ac2cbacked Yes17c130$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.957424.3%18 W · 56 L+4.5wins+0.06per pick18cpaid+5.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x99b8…1cd2backed Yes33c121.03$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.9430%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc49b…70c0backed Yes17c119.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6cd…a591backed Yes14c113$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3f6…4152backed Yes23c110.5$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.4425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick19cpaid+34.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6c4…6a2cbacked Yes28c108.81$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8217…4936backed Yes36c106.92$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.843053.3%16 W · 14 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-16.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22f9…7f37backed Yes19c105.89$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.