Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 December 8-14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf48343bca9d8e3b33ef010541ea28cf00d3b7888f7c1b0637d18c82189e5c029
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $128,065
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $120,587
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $128,065 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd769…f90cbacked No | 79c | 26,733$21,171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,562.62 | 195 | 35.4%69 W · 126 L | -13.0wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff3…b0febacked Yes | 24c | 9,000$2,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,160 | 71 | 23.9%17 W · 54 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Yes | 20c | 8,550$1,715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,714.81 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc749…e803backed Yes | 14c | 7,097$991 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$991.17 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…783bbacked No | 56c | 5,000$2,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,200 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c98…ef88backed Yes | 3c | 3,905$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 49 | 4.1%2 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd33…cf51backed No | 75c | 3,157$2,366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$791.36 | 41 | 65.9%27 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0921…263ebacked Yes | 3c | 3,145$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.95 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 23c | 2,133$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.92 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x707e…1960backed Yes | 20c | 2,062$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.52 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf61f…3ce1backed Yes | 5c | 2,041$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 137 | 9.5%13 W · 124 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e52…9434backed Yes | 9c | 1,685$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 49 | 20.4%10 W · 39 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a06…201bbacked Yes | 19c | 1,650$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7621…ef40backed Yes | 13c | 1,550$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 13cpaid | +76%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6207…5259backed Yes | 15c | 1,333$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa7…6019backed Yes | 3c | 1,329$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,145$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.76 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3822…b720backed No | 76c | 1,100$836 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264 | 86 | 34.9%30 W · 56 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9b…afddbacked Yes | 7c | 1,023$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.22 | 38 | 5.3%2 W · 36 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 14cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f31…4dccbacked Yes | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50a5…bafebacked Yes | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 234 | 11.1%26 W · 208 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0171…7f5ebacked Yes | 11c | 909.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed No | 79c | 888.26$703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.45 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcef…7388backed Yes | 4c | 794.92$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 78 | 1.3%1 W · 77 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 6cpaid | -86.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 3c | 700.1$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.71 | 143 | 1.4%2 W · 141 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 4c | 500$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 107 | 3.7%4 W · 103 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 3c | 500$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 212 | 5.7%12 W · 200 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6dc…246ebacked No | 78c | 500$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 137 | 70.1%96 W · 41 L | +9.4wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93d7…7423backed Yes | 28c | 499.06$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.74 | 348 | 48.6%169 W · 179 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 2c | 498.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 299 | 9.4%28 W · 271 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 3c | 485.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 146 | 3.4%5 W · 141 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc924…afe2backed Yes | 10c | 483.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb9…44f5backed Yes | 6c | 474$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.81 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x988e…5558backed Yes | 26c | 454.27$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e2…c86fbacked Yes | 5c | 437.42$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.27 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 26cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe580…a13fbacked Yes | 23c | 417.95$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.91 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -35%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 3c | 400.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 120 | 3.3%4 W · 116 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a2b…b404backed Yes | 21c | 285.71$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 42 | 7.1%3 W · 39 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd564…7dc0backed Yes | 15c | 268.59$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65e7…89ffbacked Yes | 8c | 267.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 59 | 8.5%5 W · 54 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ff6…9386backed Yes | 34c | 200.85$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.29 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x749c…65b8backed Yes | 16c | 200.75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.83 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 77c | 149.99$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 165 | 37.6%62 W · 103 L | -21.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 12c | 145$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0258…13bfbacked No | 79c | 135$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 181 | 62.4%113 W · 68 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5017…4daebacked Yes | 10c | 122.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e0…4e5abacked No | 63c | 120$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.4 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f6…4152backed Yes | 22c | 99.85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4739…33c9backed Yes | 18c | 99.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Yes | 17c | 83.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ba…b18bbacked Yes | 26c | 77.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37a3…d264backed No | 77c | 76.88$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 72cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe131…1bf8backed No | 60c | 67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 77c | 63.81$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 44 | 11.4%5 W · 39 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76e4…bac0backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4129…94e9backed Yes | 24c | 57.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f34…2f4fbacked Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70b5…3b75backed Yes | 29c | 52.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6434…72b6backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeadd…0215backed Yes | 29c | 43.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -47%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb334…4c11backed No | 73c | 41.05$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 71c | 35.16$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 315 | 23.8%75 W · 240 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfca…45ebbacked No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 37cpaid | +107.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 December 8-14?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 December 8-14?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 December 8-14?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 December 8-14?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 December 8-14?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $84,000 December 8-14?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $86,000 December 8-14?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $88,000 December 8-14?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 December 8-14?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $102,000 December 8-14?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $104,000 December 8-14?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 December 8-14?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $96,000 December 8-14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.