TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

China Taiwan · resolved market

Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,234,614
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,330,896

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,234,614 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 732 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes79c56,125$44,221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,904.033225%8 W · 24 L-7.5wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-65.9%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed No47c54,455$25,849 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,848.69250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-18%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1370…2cfdbacked Yes30c40,153$11,848 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,304.782100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+131.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0ed…47d8backed No41c37,768$15,376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,376.291154.5%6 W · 5 L+3.1wins+0.28per pick26cpaid+80.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd2d3…f535backed Yes52c21,963$11,391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,572.25333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick60cpaid-35.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xddb1…ea72backed Yes43c21,871$9,510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,361.371233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-35.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e3d…6143backed Yes71c21,651$15,297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,354.461233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-42.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5157…aa2cbacked No64c19,411$12,348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,348.41333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.39per pick72cpaid-55%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x51ba…3ca5backed Yes41c17,820$7,370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,449.831020%2 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-54.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf599…31a9backed No1c14,634$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4344…f90dbacked Yes34c14,349$4,882 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,466.29666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.30per pick36cpaid+54.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc2f7…aef9backed Yes57c11,545$6,543 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,002.49366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+30.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf4c7…def7backed No3c11,470$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08c5…8608backed Yes32c10,396$3,287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,109.09250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+58.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3999…a2d9backed Yes36c10,094$3,654 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,439.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+176.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a41…242abacked Yes36c9,575$3,407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,168.24922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick16cpaid-25.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ca1…13b5backed Yes38c9,408$3,594 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,813.77250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+30.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe69…e8efbacked No0c8,690$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34ab…3eb5backed No4c8,340$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.31526.7%4 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick26cpaid-52.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1100…7775backed Yes59c8,159$4,808 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,350.391100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a75…5271backed No66c6,287$4,118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,118.14450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-9.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc04…f132backed Yes40c6,065$2,441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,624.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+148.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes36c5,582$2,012 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,570.131414.3%2 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick8cpaid-53.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51e9…64bfbacked No6c5,566$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5de8…2cfdbacked No0c5,514$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4004…c40bbacked No2c5,405$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.7120%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb2d…e9bdbacked No1c5,313$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.4310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed No2c4,805$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.26345.9%2 W · 32 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+100.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7ca…9f01backed No63c4,794$2,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,998.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7528…4e36backed Yes40c4,632$1,837 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,795.622100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+101.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No2c4,605$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.19180%0 W · 18 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd8c5…6eecbacked Yes34c4,446$1,522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,923.22100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+125.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4383…4c4cbacked No35c4,306$1,496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,496.0220%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf31b…241bbacked No57c4,084$2,338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,337.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed No64c4,014$2,584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,584425%1 W · 3 L-1.7wins-0.42per pick67cpaid-66.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xeb73…53b0backed Yes38c3,960$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,460.491100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+164%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e66…41e7backed No0c3,906$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8450%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed No4c3,858$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.36310%0 W · 31 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb61f…976abacked No40c3,857$1,558 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,557.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c9b…3c25backed No13c3,692$492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe85a…60e6backed No4c3,642$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb009…1f1cbacked No70c3,436$2,388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,388.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf92…7e3fbacked No2c3,431$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8d6…d5dbbacked No3c3,387$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x420e…e3c9backed No47c3,387$1,601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,601.19742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-36.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa7b4…b7b9backed No60c3,353$1,996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,99610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3842…4500backed No3c3,138$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.9210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c8d…1ce8backed No1c3,110$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No3c3,091$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.21277.9%10 W · 117 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-38%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b4b…b8c5backed No61c3,074$1,872 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,871.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d2d…cac3backed No67c3,005$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d74…2759backed No2c2,982$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x135f…528cbacked No3c2,849$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd86e…ee3ebacked No63c2,787$1,744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,744.22250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb146…c098backed No2c2,725$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.1420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fbf…4953backed No7c2,644$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.93520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick27cpaid+74.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5e4…4a73backed No3c2,611$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c3c…5eeabacked Yes58c2,579$1,496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,082.7540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-35.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a4c…ebdabacked No4c2,577$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.8110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74b4…6beabacked Yes71c2,504$1,783 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$721.69333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.40per pick73cpaid-53.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe97c…2a99backed No66c2,502$1,651 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,650.98333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick54cpaid-26.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd529…f0d4backed No63c2,500$1,580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,58010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed No2c2,493$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.73464.3%2 W · 44 L+0.1wins0.00per pick4cpaid+42.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9950…c0b1backed No71c2,483$1,755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,754.7340%0 W · 4 L-2.4wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1925…f762backed No3c2,454$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.6210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb276…b331backed Yes41c2,418$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,417.971100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+141.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5137…4648backed No8c2,403$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58cb…6397backed Yes53c2,325$1,226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,098.89366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.35per pick32cpaid+102.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7f29…0760backed No27c2,266$609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$609.320%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x03b7…6a9cbacked No60c2,240$1,334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,333.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6df6…8458backed No60c2,222$1,333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,333.2757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.25per pick32cpaid+79.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8020…1930backed No3c2,197$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe85c…ed6bbacked No1c2,176$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.340%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9711…2de8backed No3c2,155$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fd6…6de6backed No65c2,118$1,378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,37810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…4ea1backed No3c2,113$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x001a…353bbacked No3c2,104$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.4310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1db9…65b0backed No3c2,104$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.4310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde7d…499ebacked Yes22c2,097$466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,630.731315.4%2 W · 11 L-2.5wins-0.19per pick35cpaid-46%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x04a0…818bbacked No3c2,084$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58b0…e51fbacked No3c2,084$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.7710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6535…32f5backed No3c2,043$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46e9…8347backed No3c2,043$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed No9c2,039$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.5728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick19cpaid+94.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a42…f1d7backed No3c2,018$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee4d…11c5backed No3c1,988$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.6420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e69…6be4backed No3c1,986$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.5710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdcf1…6dfdbacked No3c1,986$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.5710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed47…5d79backed Yes36c1,969$709 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,259.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+177.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ce3…9b49backed No3c1,965$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.9210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No9c1,942$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.51568.9%5 W · 51 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick7cpaid+92.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77aa…e6ecbacked No3c1,853$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5cbb…3ab7backed No3c1,850$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.0520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No3c1,850$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60147.1%1 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-80.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6312…f94ebacked No49c1,811$884 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$883.981225%3 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-16.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes41c1,789$739 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,050.73633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick21cpaid-19.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdce0…da3cbacked No61c1,774$1,079 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,079.2520%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked No3c1,700$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.8563.6%2 W · 54 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-29.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed No29c1,684$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$484.511631.3%5 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick23cpaid+44.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed No2c1,663$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.39370%0 W · 37 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.