TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Thunder (-6.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Thunderof Thunder, Spurs
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,153,476
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,212,473

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,153,476 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 601 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf031…c80cbacked Spurs50c285,000$142,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142,5006841.2%28 W · 40 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Thunder50c186,928$92,934 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93,994.1369848.6%339 W · 359 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1136…0c2ebacked Spurs49c100,000$48,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48,599.933844.7%17 W · 21 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+3.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa2cc…0cbcbacked Thunder52c91,218$47,433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43,784.6215545.8%71 W · 84 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-9.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3dfb…abafbacked Thunder53c82,220$43,632 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38,587.8514538.6%56 W · 89 L-12.9wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-22.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Spurs49c73,725$35,958 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35,957.9385742.6%365 W · 492 L-15.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe72b…b0a0backed Spurs48c70,100$33,648 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33,647.995534.5%19 W · 36 L-6.5wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-20%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa5ea…d96abacked Spurs45c60,179$27,101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,101.3616841.1%69 W · 99 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd14…d62abacked Thunder50c60,000$30,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,0005036%18 W · 32 L-5.2wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-23.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf284…b9f9backed Spurs47c60,000$28,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,199.9818651.1%95 W · 91 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Thunder50c56,242$28,121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,12163746.6%297 W · 340 L-16.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x16bb…8492backed Thunder55c45,000$24,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,249.992045%9 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb85…152fbacked Spurs47c42,553$20,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,0009945.5%45 W · 54 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbddf…c684backed Spurs47c38,227$17,795 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,794.672648.3%351 W · 375 L+30.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Thunder50c30,000$15,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,00090650.2%455 W · 451 L-0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2b5…4582backed Spurs53c25,800$13,674 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,673.913642.6%58 W · 78 L-5.5wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-19.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Thunder52c25,216$13,164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,052.664948.2%313 W · 336 L-3.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-4.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Thunder53c25,000$13,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,7501,02450.8%520 W · 504 L+18.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Thunder51c22,484$11,386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,097.882,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Spurs49c20,097$9,821 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,821.41,28243.4%557 W · 725 L-51.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9770…0ff5backed Thunder51c20,000$10,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,8003545.7%16 W · 19 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-13%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xacb2…b989backed Spurs48c20,000$9,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,599.9849244.3%218 W · 274 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ba1…1ce4backed Thunder52c19,300$10,036 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,2646045%27 W · 33 L-4.2wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-13%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Thunder54c17,357$9,319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,038.414,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca28…49debacked Thunder53c15,362$8,142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,220.142850%14 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3450…6793backed Spurs51c13,725$7,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,00017441.4%72 W · 102 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb693…cfc9backed Thunder51c13,448$6,798 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,649.710650%53 W · 53 L+4.9wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+16.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Thunder52c13,080$6,802 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,278.437355%205 W · 168 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Thunder54c10,832$5,849 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,982.5725753.7%138 W · 119 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3280…ea74backed Spurs47c10,638$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0009531.6%30 W · 65 L-11.6wins-0.12per pick44cpaid-26.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Thunder50c9,942$4,940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,002.478,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x33dd…ef8abacked Spurs47c8,000$3,760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,76013954.7%76 W · 63 L+7.8wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1af3…b3b4backed Spurs46c7,149$3,288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,288.483740.5%15 W · 22 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-13.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8cdc…b83fbacked Thunder50c7,000$3,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,50020948.8%102 W · 107 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Thunder49c6,874$3,368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,505.571,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x93ac…2761backed Thunder52c6,686$3,496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,190.4452861.9%327 W · 201 L+32.3wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+10.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x86e7…613ebacked Thunder49c6,000$2,940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,059.9810049%49 W · 51 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9a6…4fcfbacked Spurs49c5,964$2,902 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,901.91464.3%9 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+20.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c52…1a59backed Thunder54c5,462$2,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,512.581100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Spurs50c5,225$2,633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,633.051,31747.8%629 W · 688 L+15.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Thunder54c5,220$2,819 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,401.264651.7%334 W · 312 L-14.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x791e…9bdabacked Thunder53c5,000$2,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,35017247.7%82 W · 90 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-1.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Thunder52c4,930$2,576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,354.444,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe169…4653backed Thunder54c4,352$2,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,002.0812450.8%63 W · 61 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3af…3f9cbacked Spurs51c4,314$2,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,2002955.2%16 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x99aa…6c5abacked Thunder55c4,171$2,294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,876.9757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick41cpaid+53.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc6fd…f43ebacked Spurs46c4,130$1,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,90010746.7%50 W · 57 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Thunder54c4,098$2,202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,896.11,19448.8%583 W · 611 L-22.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ef5…8898backed Thunder52c4,000$2,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,9203852.6%20 W · 18 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7634…600dbacked Thunder54c3,996$2,158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,838.1928056.8%159 W · 121 L+22.2wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+50.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbd60…396cbacked Spurs48c3,860$1,853 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,852.835657.1%32 W · 24 L+4.8wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+22.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa538…12c3backed Thunder55c3,751$2,063 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,687.782975.9%22 W · 7 L+7.1wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+47.4%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Thunder54c3,562$1,907 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,654.622,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Spurs48c3,500$1,680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,679.9986641.5%359 W · 507 L-2.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1418…6fefbacked Spurs48c3,500$1,680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,679.9943438.5%167 W · 267 L-1.9wins0.00per pick39cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e77…8c33backed Thunder53c3,476$1,842 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,633.8315952.8%84 W · 75 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Spurs48c3,418$1,649 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,648.811,22637.4%458 W · 768 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa080…234fbacked Thunder49c3,400$1,669 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,731.2114842.6%63 W · 85 L-7.8wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-12.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc43c…e9e8backed Thunder54c3,187$1,713 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,474.793444.1%15 W · 19 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Thunder52c3,000$1,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,44069149.1%339 W · 352 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x76b4…ca9bbacked Spurs46c3,000$1,380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,38044252.3%231 W · 211 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd100…853dbacked Thunder49c2,919$1,441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,478.5932351.1%165 W · 158 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Spurs48c2,918$1,405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,405.231,90148.7%925 W · 976 L+6.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Spurs46c2,871$1,314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,313.846,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1eaf…9bf0backed Thunder47c2,806$1,319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,487.234148.8%20 W · 21 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd65…ee96backed Thunder55c2,727$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,227.339725.8%25 W · 72 L-9.5wins-0.10per pick36cpaid-34.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1d16…212ebacked Thunder55c2,718$1,495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,222.921764.7%11 W · 6 L+3.0wins+0.18per pick47cpaid+47.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2528…b77dbacked Thunder55c2,696$1,490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,205.561,04851.7%542 W · 506 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Spurs47c2,637$1,248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,248.2930448.4%147 W · 157 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f5b…e747backed Spurs48c2,511$1,203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,203.1665939.5%260 W · 399 L-13.1wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe504…600ebacked Thunder53c2,468$1,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,148.36043.3%26 W · 34 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Thunder52c2,464$1,282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,181.5584443%363 W · 481 L-40.5wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x33d0…f7ebbacked Spurs48c2,430$1,166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,166.395119.6%10 W · 41 L-10.1wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-56.1%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Spurs50c2,268$1,130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,130.3889444.4%397 W · 497 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Thunder54c2,008$1,084 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$923.7125352.6%133 W · 120 L+7.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6340…1bd0backed Spurs48c2,000$959 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95913128.2%37 W · 94 L-5.5wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-7.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9034…f7dfbacked Thunder66c2,000$1,319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$680.6536243.9%159 W · 203 L-9.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-28.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x41b4…de82backed Spurs47c2,000$940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94058740%235 W · 352 L+24.3wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1316…48a4backed Thunder53c2,000$1,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9407143.7%31 W · 40 L-8.0wins-0.11per pick55cpaid-19.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc7ee…fe5dbacked Spurs51c1,960$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00011759.8%70 W · 47 L+13.0wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+24.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6804…29e2backed Thunder51c1,955$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$955.3136051.7%186 W · 174 L-0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6815…9edbbacked Thunder47c1,859$882 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$976.820946.9%98 W · 111 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e64…89c3backed Thunder54c1,852$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$851.853259.4%19 W · 13 L+3.7wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+23.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xde1d…44a6backed Thunder54c1,851$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$851.613545.7%16 W · 19 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Spurs50c1,851$920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$919.7455251.3%283 W · 269 L+17.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb57a…fa68backed Spurs42c1,759$732 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$731.62333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-40.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8884…3457backed Thunder52c1,733$901 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$831.9912857.8%74 W · 54 L+7.0wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+12.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Spurs48c1,661$791 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$791.0466352.6%349 W · 314 L+30.1wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3673…2d13backed Thunder51c1,592$812 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$780.087143.7%31 W · 40 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Thunder54c1,588$858 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$730.471,56247.4%741 W · 821 L-6.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Thunder49c1,531$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$780.612,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Thunder51c1,506$763 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$742.822,16940.8%885 W · 1,284 L-8.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x196b…4151backed Spurs1c1,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15420%0 W · 42 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c16…66cebacked Thunder55c1,461$799 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$662.1721953.4%117 W · 102 L+0.8wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82f2…27d4backed Thunder59c1,383$820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$562.583080%24 W · 6 L+8.9wins+0.30per pick50cpaid+61.2%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Thunder49c1,362$667 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$694.351,28650.8%653 W · 633 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2003…af6fbacked Thunder61c1,344$817 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$527.55829.3%17 W · 41 L-3.9wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-18.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Thunder53c1,320$705 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$614.6262051.1%317 W · 303 L+14.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6bb3…758ebacked Spurs59c1,237$730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$729.8395651.5%492 W · 464 L+23.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Spurs28c1,185$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.6642842.5%182 W · 246 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-15.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 43 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.