NBA · resolved market
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Assists O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9cb0070fc15cf289452b898a5f5079dc39fff6827a64620d21992549de5ba47d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,662
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,575
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,662 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xacb2…b989backed Yes | 45c | 5,420$2,435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,985.23 | 492 | 44.3%218 W · 274 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73e8…cd6fbacked No | 55c | 3,291$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,800 | 392 | 65.1%255 W · 137 L | +31.0wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b66…336abacked No | 55c | 1,090$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 277 | 46.6%129 W · 148 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe962…663abacked Yes | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540 | 843 | 42.9%362 W · 481 L | -39.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed No | 55c | 989.09$544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544 | 1,212 | 48.3%586 W · 626 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x804f…13abbacked Yes | 46c | 700$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -5.3wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf137…50b2backed Yes | 49c | 410.4$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.4 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.18per pick | 56cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbd38…99d4backed Yes | 47c | 390.04$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.53 | 256 | 57%146 W · 110 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked No | 54c | 380$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.2 | 956 | 51.5%492 W · 464 L | +23.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked No | 55c | 330.6$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.83 | 920 | 58%534 W · 386 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed No | 47c | 308.2$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.65 | 428 | 42.5%182 W · 246 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 51c | 300$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 908 | 63.9%580 W · 328 L | +80.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d9…c125backed No | 56c | 267.86$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 202 | 47.5%96 W · 106 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9794…32c9backed Yes | 45c | 239.12$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.52 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12a2…c60dbacked Yes | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 48cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked No | 53c | 200$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 854 | 49.4%422 W · 432 L | +15.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13a9…e573backed No | 54c | 199.98$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.99 | 123 | 47.2%58 W · 65 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7987…884abacked Yes | 46c | 164.78$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.78 | 258 | 50%129 W · 129 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…e671backed No | 55c | 162.55$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.4 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6df…588cbacked No | 53c | 158$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.74 | 223 | 51.6%115 W · 108 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed No | 54c | 129$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.66 | 430 | 52.3%225 W · 205 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa415…6fb9backed No | 53c | 126.98$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.3 | 261 | 47.1%123 W · 138 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9caf…e8bdbacked No | 54c | 115.65$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.49 | 330 | 49.1%162 W · 168 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56c4…fce5backed No | 55c | 114$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.7 | 147 | 53.7%79 W · 68 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…763bbacked Yes | 45c | 113.02$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.16 | 337 | 48.1%162 W · 175 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x903e…2829backed Yes | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb502…9d8bbacked Yes | 74c | 101.76$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.76 | 300 | 55.7%167 W · 133 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 51c | 95$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.59 | 454 | 45.2%205 W · 249 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf836…f39cbacked No | 56c | 88$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.28 | 270 | 59.6%161 W · 109 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…9278backed No | 55c | 82.58$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.42 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d38…6f08backed No | 55c | 80$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 118 | 52.5%62 W · 56 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf93d…49e4backed No | 55c | 79.84$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.91 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3227…5df7backed No | 55c | 76.7$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.19 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55af…8407backed No | 55c | 65.45$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…0073backed No | 55c | 63.64$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb72d…f11ebacked Yes | 46c | 60.87$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.87 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 52c | 60.62$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.78 | 538 | 42%226 W · 312 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…7156backed No | 53c | 57.02$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.22 | 361 | 53.5%193 W · 168 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 42c | 54.9$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.97 | 308 | 42.9%132 W · 176 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0967…164cbacked No | 55c | 54.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa89b…3c2bbacked Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed No | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 660 | 46.8%309 W · 351 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e6…757abacked Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 81 | 48.1%39 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f39…28dabacked No | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 113 | 47.8%54 W · 59 L | -5.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 52c | 38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 1,200 | 51.6%619 W · 581 L | +66.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a94…b335backed Yes | 46c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae45…96b9backed No | 55c | 32.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 405 | 46.9%190 W · 215 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbfb…550cbacked Yes | 46c | 32.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.53 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7242…ac6fbacked Yes | 46c | 31.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 102 | 40.2%41 W · 61 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 54c | 30.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 333 | 56.2%187 W · 146 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed No | 54c | 19.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 304 | 48.4%147 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 43 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Assists O/U 7.5this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-3.5)Thunder won
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-4.5)Thunder won
- Chet Holmgren: Assists O/U 1.5Yes won
- Chet Holmgren: Points O/U 14.5No won
- Chet Holmgren: Rebounds O/U 8.5No won
- De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 14.5No won
- De'Aaron Fox: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Jalen Williams: Points O/U 16.5No won
- Jalen Williams: Points O/U 17.5No won
- Jalen Williams: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Julian Champagnie: Points O/U 2.5Yes won
- Luguentz Dort: Assists O/U 0.5Yes won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 28.5Yes won
- Spread: Spurs (-3.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-11.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Thunder (-14.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Thunder (-2.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-5.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-6.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-7.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-8.5)Thunder won
- Spurs vs. ThunderThunder won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 110.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 111.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 207.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 210.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 213.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 215.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 216.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 217.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 219.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 222.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 225.5Over won
- Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 6.5Yes won
- Stephon Castle: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
- Stephon Castle: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 24.5No won
- Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 25.5No won
- Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 13.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.