NBA · resolved market
Chet Holmgren: Points O/U 14.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb7e87310c57dd9ca143b5ade65f5baa2ddea3873776a68565f769bb41a082dd7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,510
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,173
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,510 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed No | 54c | 1,672$895 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$776.96 | 428 | 42.5%182 W · 246 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe962…663abacked Yes | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 843 | 42.9%362 W · 481 L | -39.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96a3…d944backed Yes | 47c | 800$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.64 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2e…8895backed Yes | 48c | 705.13$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed No | 53c | 675$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.45 | 430 | 52.3%225 W · 205 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86e9…4cdfbacked Yes | 43c | 628.83$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.28 | 201 | 55.7%112 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed No | 57c | 595.45$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.04 | 1,212 | 48.3%586 W · 626 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked No | 51c | 564.33$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.52 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked No | 53c | 401$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.47 | 956 | 51.5%492 W · 464 L | +23.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03c8…becfbacked Yes | 46c | 351.09$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd38…99d4backed No | 55c | 346.95$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.45 | 256 | 57%146 W · 110 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84fb…c8b8backed Yes | 43c | 322.22$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -3.1wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed No | 55c | 316.22$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.5 | 1,393 | 48.3%673 W · 720 L | +19.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d9…04eebacked Yes | 48c | 313.33$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x276b…add4backed Yes | 47c | 278.29$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Yes | 47c | 276.79$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9caf…e8bdbacked No | 54c | 251.55$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.93 | 330 | 49.1%162 W · 168 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4738…9cfbbacked Yes | 46c | 215.13$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13a9…e573backed No | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 123 | 47.2%58 W · 65 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked No | 54c | 120.83$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.58 | 854 | 49.4%422 W · 432 L | +15.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4490…fe8bbacked Yes | 48c | 103.82$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5345…666abacked Yes | 45c | 101.62$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.73 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab4…5c9cbacked Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 73 | 58.9%43 W · 30 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64f7…5bd7backed Yes | 14c | 97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x430b…4c99backed Yes | 47c | 96.02$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.52 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 53c | 88.4$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.55 | 908 | 63.9%580 W · 328 L | +80.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8956…755fbacked No | 60c | 83.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.44 | 209 | 51.7%108 W · 101 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5569…c927backed No | 58c | 76.69$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.11 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4bb…a993backed Yes | 46c | 71.16$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.05 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf908…0aafbacked No | 56c | 68.16$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.74 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +75.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0139…a7c3backed Yes | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -3.3wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa89b…3c2bbacked Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9382…4ee3backed No | 57c | 47.22$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.22 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9b…7272backed Yes | 46c | 47.02$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed No | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 660 | 46.8%309 W · 351 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc5…838abacked Yes | 55c | 44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd69e…3393backed Yes | 46c | 43.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 55c | 42.86$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 538 | 42%226 W · 312 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4449…5095backed No | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a8…e56bbacked Yes | 25c | 40.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed No | 55c | 32.79$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 304 | 48.4%147 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67f3…d3e7backed Yes | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76d4…c512backed No | 53c | 31.86$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.97 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.29per pick | 54cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed No | 54c | 31.17$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 969 | 56.3%546 W · 423 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 50c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 1,200 | 51.6%619 W · 581 L | +66.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 55c | 25.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 267 | 55.1%147 W · 120 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed No | 56c | 23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 1,150 | 49.5%569 W · 581 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 59c | 17.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 143 | 59.4%85 W · 58 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1e…7ee3backed No | 68c | 17.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.56 | 96 | 54.2%52 W · 44 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 43 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chet Holmgren: Points O/U 14.5this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-3.5)Thunder won
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-4.5)Thunder won
- Chet Holmgren: Assists O/U 1.5Yes won
- Chet Holmgren: Rebounds O/U 8.5No won
- De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 14.5No won
- De'Aaron Fox: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Jalen Williams: Points O/U 16.5No won
- Jalen Williams: Points O/U 17.5No won
- Jalen Williams: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Julian Champagnie: Points O/U 2.5Yes won
- Luguentz Dort: Assists O/U 0.5Yes won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Assists O/U 7.5Yes won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 28.5Yes won
- Spread: Spurs (-3.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-11.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Thunder (-14.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Thunder (-2.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-5.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-6.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-7.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-8.5)Thunder won
- Spurs vs. ThunderThunder won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 110.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 111.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 207.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 210.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 213.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 215.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 216.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 217.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 219.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 222.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 225.5Over won
- Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 6.5Yes won
- Stephon Castle: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
- Stephon Castle: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 24.5No won
- Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 25.5No won
- Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 13.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.