TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Stephon Castle: Points O/U 16.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,828
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,031

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,828 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6a5f…1070backed Yes53c1,391$734 inWon+$656.73944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.14per pick58cpaid-31.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed No47c1,348$635 inLost-$635.432,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9caf…e8bdbacked No48c251.81$121 inLost-$120.7433049.1%162 W · 168 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2374…a426backed Yes52c197.5$103 inWon+$94.914443.8%63 W · 81 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-11.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x276b…add4backed Yes51c194.87$100 inWon+$94.8712451.6%64 W · 60 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ff8…8a76backed No44c148.34$65 inLost-$65.2713751.1%70 W · 67 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9ef…20ebbacked No50c126.58$63 inLost-$62.7685449.4%422 W · 432 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd38…99d4backed Yes53c119$63 inWon+$56.1325657%146 W · 110 L+9.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2baf…8023backed No47c116.83$55 inLost-$55.4143752.6%230 W · 207 L+18.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc8d9…df36backed No48c110$53 inLost-$52.840053.5%214 W · 186 L+14.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xef5a…492abacked Yes55c88.3$48 inWon+$39.871369.2%9 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.14per pick55cpaid+29.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7d38…6f08backed No47c79.96$38 inLost-$37.5811852.5%62 W · 56 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1de9…9499backed Yes52c77.31$40 inWon+$37.3110636.8%39 W · 67 L-14.9wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-30.4%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0xa0c5…4291backed No48c55.07$26 inLost-$26.4396956.3%546 W · 423 L+26.0wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a80…b90abacked Yes56c53.57$30 inWon+$23.57728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.21per pick49cpaid-48.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xee5a…9f70backed No48c49.99$24 inLost-$23.91315.4%2 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.16per pick32cpaid-53.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6795…4a4cbacked Yes51c38.85$20 inWon+$18.853964.1%25 W · 14 L+4.3wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+20.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x03c8…becfbacked Yes52c38.67$20 inWon+$18.673458.8%20 W · 14 L+2.9wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+13.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x485c…c6b3backed Yes53c37.74$20 inWon+$17.744757.4%27 W · 20 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+10.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd69e…3393backed Yes56c35.71$20 inWon+$15.715048%24 W · 26 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid+9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed No49c33.51$16 inLost-$16.4233356.2%187 W · 146 L+9.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x373a…f4c1backed No48c31.81$15 inLost-$15.2790863.9%580 W · 328 L+80.6wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+20.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x43d7…1c75backed No48c29.99$14 inLost-$14.3941050.7%208 W · 202 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6a7…e5d4backed No53c26.77$14 inLost-$14.2418853.7%101 W · 87 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea10…a070backed No47c22.77$11 inLost-$10.737652.4%197 W · 179 L+12.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8884…f29bbacked Yes53c20.75$11 inWon+$9.751353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 43 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.