NBA · resolved market
Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H Moneyline
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c593493ef30e5208eaf576030eee664e0b037b457c7cd79d6f0b9d8a22a98f1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Thunderof Spurs, Thunder
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,744
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,273
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,744 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf284…b9f9backed Spurs | 33c | 16,179$5,389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,388.99 | 186 | 51.1%95 W · 91 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…0ff5backed Thunder | 67c | 10,400$6,968 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,432 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4517…f700backed Thunder | 66c | 3,030$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,030.3 | 171 | 47.4%81 W · 90 L | +13.7wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x86e9…4cdfbacked Thunder | 66c | 1,571$1,037 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$534.15 | 201 | 55.7%112 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1341…0853backed Thunder | 66c | 1,175$776 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.54 | 257 | 53.7%138 W · 119 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Thunder | 66c | 1,150$759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.88 | 503 | 46.5%234 W · 269 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Thunder | 67c | 757.58$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 131 | 61.8%81 W · 50 L | +13.4wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Thunder | 65c | 590.03$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.51 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcec1…9c0cbacked Thunder | 72c | 540.07$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.22 | 196 | 50.5%99 W · 97 L | +8.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Spurs | 57c | 522.26$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 241 | 59.8%144 W · 97 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b29…8373backed Spurs | 35c | 468$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.8 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Thunder | 66c | 419.97$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.79 | 620 | 51.1%317 W · 303 L | +14.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2df…ca29backed Thunder | 64c | 409.85$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.14 | 172 | 47.7%82 W · 90 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b37…17bdbacked Spurs | 35c | 399.99$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 124 | 34.7%43 W · 81 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Spurs | 33c | 399.98$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.99 | 1,752 | 40.6%712 W · 1,040 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa919…65fabacked Spurs | 34c | 294.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60ee…45cebacked Spurs | 34c | 294$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.31per pick | 47cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa2…4d22backed Thunder | 67c | 292.92$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.66 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | -14.7wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad1a…283ebacked Spurs | 34c | 287.91$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.89 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x456a…6a90backed Thunder | 67c | 249.4$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.3 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2030…e89cbacked Spurs | 36c | 242.17$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.18 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a7…65b6backed Spurs | 44c | 223.55$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Spurs | 26c | 201.32$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.79 | 766 | 53.5%410 W · 356 L | +65.5wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd08…0635backed Thunder | 67c | 200.17$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.06 | 473 | 59.2%280 W · 193 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee4d…5413backed Thunder | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd79c…9f33backed Spurs | 34c | 162.59$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.28 | 123 | 13%16 W · 107 L | -8.2wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked Thunder | 40c | 153$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.83 | 786 | 39.2%308 W · 478 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff4…8720backed Spurs | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4490…fe8bbacked Spurs | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4449…5095backed Spurs | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b3…1fcbbacked Spurs | 34c | 146.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.74 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd9…bfe8backed Thunder | 69c | 143.81$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.58 | 657 | 62.3%409 W · 248 L | +27.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b3…4756backed Thunder | 70c | 143.01$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.17 | 107 | 43.9%47 W · 60 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc74d…8acabacked Spurs | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 143 | 44.1%63 W · 80 L | +9.8wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed7…65afbacked Spurs | 34c | 142.29$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.38 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Thunder | 65c | 133.85$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.85 | 1,212 | 48.3%586 W · 626 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd4…7401backed Thunder | 42c | 119.26$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.65 | 249 | 36.9%92 W · 157 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x389d…995fbacked Thunder | 69c | 103.78$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.36 | 88 | 43.2%38 W · 50 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa11f…1252backed Thunder | 69c | 100.12$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.04 | 202 | 47.5%96 W · 106 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x316f…795abacked Thunder | 41c | 98$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.48 | 172 | 37.2%64 W · 108 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe30e…4eedbacked Spurs | 35c | 97.47$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.71 | 114 | 24.6%28 W · 86 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda78…f83abacked Spurs | 52c | 94.81$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.16 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd41…8761backed Spurs | 34c | 89.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.95 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -3.7wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Thunder | 66c | 77.4$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.32 | 1,322 | 49.9%660 W · 662 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e45…39dabacked Thunder | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Spurs | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,200 | 51.6%619 W · 581 L | +66.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Spurs | 34c | 71.43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.29 | 304 | 48.4%147 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed Thunder | 39c | 71$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.31 | 804 | 40.3%324 W · 480 L | +27.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…03e5backed Spurs | 34c | 59.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +3.6wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeecd…4fefbacked Spurs | 34c | 59.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 362 | 47.2%171 W · 191 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd2…6555backed Spurs | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.8wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0139…a7c3backed Spurs | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -3.3wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf870…ac67backed Spurs | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ad…6979backed Thunder | 67c | 50.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 576 | 50%288 W · 288 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6508…1077backed Spurs | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 118 | 37.3%44 W · 74 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Spurs | 34c | 48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 186 | 53.2%99 W · 87 L | +9.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x590a…c459backed Spurs | 33c | 44.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +4.9wins | +0.20per pick | 44cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Thunder | 63c | 42.12$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 616 | 38.5%237 W · 379 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Thunder | 73c | 40.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 143 | 59.4%85 W · 58 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5e…95e3backed Thunder | 69c | 38.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 210 | 46.2%97 W · 113 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae40…9edabacked Thunder | 65c | 35.38$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62d5…bc0cbacked Thunder | 58c | 34.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Thunder | 49c | 33.59$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.13 | 1,170 | 50.3%588 W · 582 L | +46.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37b5…b6c8backed Spurs | 34c | 32.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 116 | 53.4%62 W · 54 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +26%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73a8…5de1backed Thunder | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.29per pick | 54cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Thunder | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05b9…6b86backed Thunder | 67c | 17.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 43 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H Moneylinethis page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-3.5)Thunder won
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-4.5)Thunder won
- Chet Holmgren: Assists O/U 1.5Yes won
- Chet Holmgren: Points O/U 14.5No won
- Chet Holmgren: Rebounds O/U 8.5No won
- De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 14.5No won
- De'Aaron Fox: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Jalen Williams: Points O/U 16.5No won
- Jalen Williams: Points O/U 17.5No won
- Jalen Williams: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Julian Champagnie: Points O/U 2.5Yes won
- Luguentz Dort: Assists O/U 0.5Yes won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Assists O/U 7.5Yes won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 28.5Yes won
- Spread: Spurs (-3.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-11.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Thunder (-14.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Thunder (-2.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-5.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-6.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-7.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-8.5)Thunder won
- Spurs vs. ThunderThunder won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 110.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 111.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 207.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 210.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 213.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 215.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 216.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 217.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 219.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 222.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 225.5Over won
- Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 6.5Yes won
- Stephon Castle: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
- Stephon Castle: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 24.5No won
- Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 25.5No won
- Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 13.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.