TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

1H Spread: Thunder (-3.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Thunderof Thunder, Spurs
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$6,763
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$8,368

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,763 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf284…b9f9backed Spurs46c3,787$1,742 inLost-$1,741.8818651.1%95 W · 91 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd8e…f023backed Thunder54c1,557$841 inWon+$716.4112649.2%62 W · 64 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x476d…0c42backed Thunder54c1,009$545 inWon+$464.188848.9%43 W · 45 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x96a3…d944backed Thunder54c999.99$540 inWon+$4607950.6%40 W · 39 L+6.1wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+9.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Spurs46c600$276 inLost-$2761,90148.7%925 W · 976 L+6.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa272…797abacked Thunder54c455.78$246 inWon+$209.662100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+111.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe619…6342backed Thunder54c314.81$170 inWon+$144.8122844.7%102 W · 126 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe2df…ca29backed Spurs46c256$118 inLost-$117.7617247.7%82 W · 90 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Spurs43c218.23$94 inLost-$93.844,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x03c7…22f2backed Thunder54c185.19$100 inWon+$85.199552.6%50 W · 45 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe192…c237backed Thunder54c92.59$50 inWon+$42.59728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.21per pick50cpaid-46.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x590a…c459backed Spurs48c30.96$15 inLost-$14.852564%16 W · 9 L+4.9wins+0.20per pick44cpaid+58.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xfdd2…6555backed Thunder54c18.94$10 inWon+$8.711827.8%5 W · 13 L-3.8wins-0.21per pick49cpaid-45.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 43 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.