NBA · resolved market
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 25.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbb0636051848db392a3fbcea4d160e090e19b01dbc110e703e8669f1a1f67ba4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,494
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,540
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,494 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc249…8a61backed No | 48c | 2,010$959 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,050.93 | 796 | 50.9%405 W · 391 L | +63.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf99c…dd3abacked Yes | 52c | 1,908$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe962…663abacked Yes | 48c | 1,236$591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590.93 | 843 | 42.9%362 W · 481 L | -39.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed No | 50c | 1,148$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$572.83 | 1,393 | 48.3%673 W · 720 L | +19.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed No | 52c | 761.53$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.53 | 1,212 | 48.3%586 W · 626 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed No | 51c | 443.98$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.55 | 226 | 56.6%128 W · 98 L | +13.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2374…a426backed Yes | 51c | 392.64$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 144 | 43.8%63 W · 81 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x783b…dc4cbacked No | 50c | 345.76$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.51 | 186 | 32.3%60 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 48c | 335.25$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.69 | 908 | 63.9%580 W · 328 L | +80.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x30bb…f258backed Yes | 49c | 305.67$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +3.3wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b37…17bdbacked Yes | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 124 | 34.7%43 W · 81 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05e0…e2cbbacked No | 52c | 288.46$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.46 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9caf…e8bdbacked No | 50c | 250.27$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.04 | 330 | 49.1%162 W · 168 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36ed…4a93backed No | 50c | 249.54$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.76 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4738…9cfbbacked Yes | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e4f…2510backed Yes | 49c | 201.2$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.24 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe299…761bbacked Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 315 | 40.3%127 W · 188 L | -15.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13a9…e573backed No | 51c | 199.97$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.99 | 123 | 47.2%58 W · 65 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4517…f700backed Yes | 51c | 196.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 171 | 47.4%81 W · 90 L | +13.7wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7677…37c0backed No | 51c | 194.18$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.15 | 141 | 48.2%68 W · 73 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked No | 53c | 194.07$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.21 | 854 | 49.4%422 W · 432 L | +15.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1de9…9499backed Yes | 49c | 122.45$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 106 | 36.8%39 W · 67 L | -14.9wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…7156backed No | 49c | 105$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.55 | 361 | 53.5%193 W · 168 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56c4…fce5backed No | 52c | 103$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.44 | 147 | 53.7%79 W · 68 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aae…6472backed Yes | 49c | 101.87$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb502…9d8bbacked Yes | 50c | 100.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 300 | 55.7%167 W · 133 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f18…f384backed Yes | 51c | 98.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x80bd…7acdbacked Yes | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0654…f5a9backed No | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 94 | 51.1%48 W · 46 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfee3…9a81backed Yes | 48c | 94.21$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.22 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9023…1143backed Yes | 50c | 70$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4449…5095backed Yes | 51c | 64.71$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67f3…d3e7backed Yes | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35c9…bc74backed Yes | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 346 | 61.6%213 W · 133 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a12…7ab8backed Yes | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…3a3dbacked No | 53c | 56.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.98 | 348 | 49.7%173 W · 175 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x697d…f299backed Yes | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcff…4f4bbacked Yes | 47c | 51.52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.21 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed No | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 304 | 48.4%147 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed No | 53c | 47.26$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 660 | 46.8%309 W · 351 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07e4…186ebacked Yes | 53c | 43.08$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.83 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13db…2523backed Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2617…4129backed Yes | 51c | 42.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked No | 48c | 41.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.56 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3170…924cbacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x63b1…9446backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab2…66cdbacked Yes | 49c | 38.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06d9…cd34backed Yes | 49c | 32.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5aeb…42d4backed Yes | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 275 | 39.6%109 W · 166 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed No | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 335 | 56.7%190 W · 145 L | +26.4wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf804…8758backed No | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c6c…be63backed Yes | 52c | 23.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed No | 52c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.99 | 430 | 52.3%225 W · 205 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed No | 51c | 22.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 969 | 56.3%546 W · 423 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 53c | 21.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 195 | 55.4%108 W · 87 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9835…f8fdbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb980…516abacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x746d…81dbbacked No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x378a…a638backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 101 | 44.6%45 W · 56 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x570d…c0debacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 43 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 25.5this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-3.5)Thunder won
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-4.5)Thunder won
- Chet Holmgren: Assists O/U 1.5Yes won
- Chet Holmgren: Points O/U 14.5No won
- Chet Holmgren: Rebounds O/U 8.5No won
- De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 14.5No won
- De'Aaron Fox: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Jalen Williams: Points O/U 16.5No won
- Jalen Williams: Points O/U 17.5No won
- Jalen Williams: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Julian Champagnie: Points O/U 2.5Yes won
- Luguentz Dort: Assists O/U 0.5Yes won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Assists O/U 7.5Yes won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 28.5Yes won
- Spread: Spurs (-3.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-11.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Thunder (-14.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Thunder (-2.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-5.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-6.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-7.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-8.5)Thunder won
- Spurs vs. ThunderThunder won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 110.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 111.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 207.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 210.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 213.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 215.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 216.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 217.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 219.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 222.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 225.5Over won
- Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 6.5Yes won
- Stephon Castle: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
- Stephon Castle: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 24.5No won
- Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 13.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.