TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 14.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,753
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,748

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,753 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7200…9299backed No78c1,387$1,080 inWon+$306.6636954.7%202 W · 167 L+28.0wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+18.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc2f2…0ff7backed Yes2c686$14 inLost-$13.72147.1%1 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.11per pick18cpaid-90.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa804…bdc1backed Yes45c304$136 inLost-$136.37237.5%27 W · 45 L-7.6wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-20.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4c74…3c0dbacked No55c256.73$141 inWon+$115.53683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.4wins+0.40per pick44cpaid+350.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x76cf…599dbacked Yes45c223.38$100 inLost-$100250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9caf…e8bdbacked Yes35c179.85$63 inLost-$62.5133049.1%162 W · 168 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x276b…add4backed Yes56c179.64$100 inLost-$10012451.6%64 W · 60 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5159…d7aebacked No44c169.64$75 inWon+$956147.5%29 W · 32 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cdd…3e97backed No75c109.54$82 inWon+$27.456764.2%43 W · 24 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick62cpaid-4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f14…7f76backed Yes43c96.11$41 inLost-$41.031136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-30.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb502…9d8bbacked Yes49c90.32$44 inLost-$4430055.7%167 W · 133 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x55af…8407backed No67c74.63$50 inWon+$24.635042%21 W · 29 L-3.8wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-14.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf9ef…20ebbacked No48c72.44$35 inWon+$37.6785449.4%422 W · 432 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe2b…51debacked Yes47c63.75$30 inLost-$3010247.1%48 W · 54 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9422…f273backed No62c53.04$33 inWon+$20.1819555.4%108 W · 87 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5101…4a4fbacked Yes42c50$21 inLost-$2140048.3%193 W · 207 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf060…fc59backed Yes20c50$10 inLost-$1013539.3%53 W · 82 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid+9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03c8…becfbacked Yes44c45.61$20 inLost-$203458.8%20 W · 14 L+2.9wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+13.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6dd9…bfe8backed No55c34.62$19 inWon+$15.5865762.3%409 W · 248 L+27.9wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x29a5…a3c4backed No63c31.98$20 inWon+$11.9233556.7%190 W · 145 L+26.4wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+12.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf1c7…6621backed Yes32c31.51$10 inLost-$101118.2%2 W · 9 L-2.6wins-0.24per pick42cpaid-62.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2f75…cc2abacked Yes35c31.43$11 inLost-$111258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.14per pick44cpaid+19.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…ba2cbacked No57c30$17 inWon+$12.7526957.2%154 W · 115 L+11.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcd43…f481backed Yes44c28.35$12 inLost-$12.5850%4 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3da8…80c3backed No67c25.57$17 inWon+$8.445954.2%32 W · 27 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+19.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3063…65b3backed Yes45c25$11 inLost-$11.251957.9%11 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x230b…c2c4backed No60c17.25$10 inWon+$6.9650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-20.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed No60c16.67$10 inWon+$6.6133356.2%187 W · 146 L+9.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 43 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.