TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 6.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,328
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,652

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,328 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3da8…80c3backed No52c1,039$540 inLost-$540.045954.2%32 W · 27 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+19.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe962…663abacked Yes48c1,000$480 inWon+$52084342.9%362 W · 481 L-39.1wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9caf…e8bdbacked No55c201.78$112 inLost-$111.9633049.1%162 W · 168 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x83e4…757dbacked Yes17c195$33 inWon+$161.851553.3%8 W · 7 L+2.8wins+0.19per pick35cpaid+100.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2baf…8023backed No46c99.98$46 inLost-$45.9943752.6%230 W · 207 L+18.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x64dc…4d4fbacked Yes57c78.29$45 inWon+$33.741070%7 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick58cpaid+27.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1de9…9499backed Yes54c75.93$41 inWon+$34.9310636.8%39 W · 67 L-14.9wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-30.4%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0xf56e…a853backed Yes44c55.89$25 inWon+$31.374393%40 W · 3 L+12.5wins+0.29per pick64cpaid+65.4%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0x802e…76fdbacked Yes41c53.12$22 inWon+$31.345887.9%51 W · 7 L+13.6wins+0.24per pick64cpaid+35.1%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed No46c50$23 inLost-$2330448.4%147 W · 157 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked No76c47$36 inLost-$35.51,20051.6%619 W · 581 L+66.5wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5af8…9e55backed Yes49c40.82$20 inWon+$20.821540%6 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-24.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7df9…3a84backed Yes54c36.33$20 inWon+$16.533470.6%24 W · 10 L+5.4wins+0.16per pick55cpaid+23.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2ff8…8a76backed No44c36.17$16 inLost-$15.9213751.1%70 W · 67 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7385…0199backed Yes55c36.13$20 inWon+$16.134864.6%31 W · 17 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc338…318abacked Yes41c28.68$12 inWon+$16.92333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-18.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf129…1edcbacked Yes41c24.4$10 inWon+$14.42161.9%13 W · 8 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed No46c22.62$10 inLost-$10.4333356.2%187 W · 146 L+9.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 43 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.