NBA · resolved market
Jalen Williams: Points O/U 17.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1d0dea4fecf431ca2274e268a6ab084b167c15e975d50022314a59f94b4f319c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,974
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,011
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,974 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 47c | 2,312$1,089 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,223.2 | 447 | 40.7%182 W · 265 L | -27.5wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b66…336abacked No | 48c | 1,248$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$647.79 | 277 | 46.6%129 W · 148 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86e9…4cdfbacked No | 48c | 1,202$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$626.06 | 201 | 55.7%112 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe962…663abacked Yes | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 843 | 42.9%362 W · 481 L | -39.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53e4…6f6bbacked Yes | 53c | 760$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.8 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed No | 44c | 681.51$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.65 | 1,393 | 48.3%673 W · 720 L | +19.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0fd…a91ebacked Yes | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 93 | 53.8%50 W · 43 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd38…99d4backed Yes | 56c | 369$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.64 | 256 | 57%146 W · 110 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x556c…93cebacked No | 47c | 332.98$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.48 | 249 | 49%122 W · 127 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed Yes | 52c | 288.15$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.84 | 235 | 53.6%126 W · 109 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d0…712dbacked Yes | 53c | 287$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.11 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +4.6wins | +0.26per pick | 47cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd190…e445backed Yes | 55c | 254.55$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9caf…e8bdbacked No | 45c | 250.07$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.8 | 330 | 49.1%162 W · 168 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f38…39f2backed Yes | 55c | 238.01$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.84 | 78 | 33.3%26 W · 52 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed No | 45c | 214.49$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.37 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13a9…e573backed No | 50c | 204.97$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.04 | 123 | 47.2%58 W · 65 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked No | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 854 | 49.4%422 W · 432 L | +15.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…9a2bbacked Yes | 56c | 200$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 80 | 52.5%42 W · 38 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e3…d1ffbacked Yes | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8fd…3e24backed Yes | 51c | 192$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.56 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4f…3216backed Yes | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dc…ec43backed Yes | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 690 | 49.4%341 W · 349 L | -30.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 53c | 183.17$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.08 | 844 | 43%363 W · 481 L | -40.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb502…9d8bbacked Yes | 51c | 153.77$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 300 | 55.7%167 W · 133 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacb2…b989backed Yes | 50c | 145.64$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.82 | 492 | 44.3%218 W · 274 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2baf…8023backed No | 47c | 105.47$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.15 | 437 | 52.6%230 W · 207 L | +18.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…3c33backed Yes | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | +6.1wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe538…c28bbacked Yes | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +7.1wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7d38…6f08backed No | 47c | 79.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.39 | 118 | 52.5%62 W · 56 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d3…4b1fbacked No | 47c | 77.78$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.22 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91bc…28d6backed Yes | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2b…51debacked Yes | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 102 | 47.1%48 W · 54 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f78…cc0bbacked Yes | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x810f…aa88backed Yes | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +130.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca7c…e994backed No | 46c | 67.23$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.3 | 193 | 52.8%102 W · 91 L | +11.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e4f…2510backed No | 62c | 61.52$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9eb4…1bd1backed Yes | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -3.7wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed No | 45c | 56.36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 568 | 43.8%249 W · 319 L | -25.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a80…b90abacked Yes | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 660 | 46.8%309 W · 351 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaea…4bbfbacked Yes | 53c | 47.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 405 | 41%166 W · 239 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7242…ac6fbacked Yes | 51c | 47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 102 | 40.2%41 W · 61 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd2a…8dbdbacked Yes | 54c | 46.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.07 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +4.3wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +27%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x78ca…b3f3backed Yes | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +18%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4449…5095backed Yes | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e2…59a4backed Yes | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x258b…270ebacked Yes | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 177 | 48%85 W · 92 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30f8…e0f3backed Yes | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +4.8wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa820…2dcebacked Yes | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 85 | 44.7%38 W · 47 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25ed…3e98backed Yes | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 91 | 51.6%47 W · 44 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed No | 47c | 34.58$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 304 | 48.4%147 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbfb…550cbacked Yes | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0139…a7c3backed Yes | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -3.3wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcd43…f481backed No | 47c | 26.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d2f…a285backed Yes | 56c | 22.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bee…9291backed Yes | 52c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3063…65b3backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x623a…5144backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a94…b335backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 43 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Jalen Williams: Points O/U 17.5this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-3.5)Thunder won
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-4.5)Thunder won
- Chet Holmgren: Assists O/U 1.5Yes won
- Chet Holmgren: Points O/U 14.5No won
- Chet Holmgren: Rebounds O/U 8.5No won
- De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 14.5No won
- De'Aaron Fox: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Jalen Williams: Points O/U 16.5No won
- Jalen Williams: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Julian Champagnie: Points O/U 2.5Yes won
- Luguentz Dort: Assists O/U 0.5Yes won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Assists O/U 7.5Yes won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 28.5Yes won
- Spread: Spurs (-3.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-11.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Thunder (-14.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Thunder (-2.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-5.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-6.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-7.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-8.5)Thunder won
- Spurs vs. ThunderThunder won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 110.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 111.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 207.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 210.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 213.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 215.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 216.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 217.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 219.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 222.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 225.5Over won
- Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 6.5Yes won
- Stephon Castle: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
- Stephon Castle: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 24.5No won
- Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 25.5No won
- Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 13.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.