TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 111.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$10,478
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$10,726

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,478 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe558…dcd2backed Over47c2,405$1,121 inWon+$1,283.979349.5%46 W · 47 L+5.9wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+22.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Over45c2,319$1,039 inWon+$1,279.7325352.6%133 W · 120 L+7.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Under55c1,500$825 inLost-$82550346.5%234 W · 269 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39f8…badabacked Under52c1,123$589 inLost-$589.084652.2%24 W · 22 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Under55c1,044$574 inLost-$574.16,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1a0…fb89backed Under53c900$477 inLost-$4772763%17 W · 10 L+3.1wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+24.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Over45c780.38$351 inWon+$429.324,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8356…d6cbbacked Under56c599.99$336 inLost-$3362259.1%13 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x255a…3435backed Under47c429$202 inLost-$202.0261638.5%237 W · 379 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeea8…0412backed Under54c400$216 inLost-$21616251.9%84 W · 78 L+0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2df…ca29backed Over46c369.36$168 inWon+$201.0917247.7%82 W · 90 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Over53c277.75$146 inWon+$131.7217946.4%83 W · 96 L+8.8wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x48cf…c7dfbacked Under57c277.19$158 inLost-$15836453%193 W · 171 L-17.0wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-8.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Under37c164.38$61 inLost-$61.081,27138.3%487 W · 784 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Under57c142.81$81 inLost-$81.42,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc03a…a7bdbacked Under56c137$77 inLost-$76.722657.7%15 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Over64c119.67$76 inWon+$43.5742842.5%182 W · 246 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-15.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x085b…ab9fbacked Over44c113.52$50 inWon+$63.579941.4%41 W · 58 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked Over56c79$44 inWon+$35.1593148.4%451 W · 480 L+34.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8492…f17cbacked Under53c59.58$31 inLost-$31.51450%7 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+8.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a67…52edbacked Under59c51.05$30 inLost-$3012149.6%60 W · 61 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xfb8f…9166backed Over50c50.46$25 inWon+$25.463056.7%17 W · 13 L+2.6wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+16.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6027…4320backed Over44c50$22 inWon+$2829243.8%128 W · 164 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid+2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xedf7…4003backed Over45c50$22 inWon+$27.615044.7%67 W · 83 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc249…8a61backed Over41c38.94$16 inWon+$22.9879650.9%405 W · 391 L+63.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+21.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2afa…a29ebacked Under64c31.02$20 inLost-$201656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Over59c27.68$16 inWon+$11.4322753.3%121 W · 106 L+11.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+2.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1dd2…9e07backed Over46c26.57$12 inWon+$14.3555444.4%246 W · 308 L-11.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa1b0…fd60backed Under58c23$13 inLost-$13.342347.8%11 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.09per pick57cpaid-16.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3542…2e5bbacked Over47c22.96$11 inWon+$12.171100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x729a…1e51backed Over61c20$12 inWon+$7.87149.3%35 W · 36 L-9.0wins-0.13per pick62cpaid-20.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 43 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.