TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Bulls vs. Nets

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Netsof Bulls, Nets
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,373,895
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,672,724

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,373,895 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 2,215 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8764…604abacked Nets42c352,695$149,729 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202,965.727266.7%48 W · 24 L+14.6wins+0.20per pick46cpaid+47%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x07b8…8e25backed Bulls59c321,881$189,460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189,460.3423257.8%134 W · 98 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5877…d894backed Nets42c200,000$84,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115,999.989043.3%39 W · 51 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Bulls58c116,701$67,687 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67,686.571,04549%512 W · 533 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked Nets42c100,000$42,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58,00040446.8%189 W · 215 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d19…f2f9backed Bulls63c80,000$50,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50,4001050%5 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bc0…4429backed Bulls58c80,000$46,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46,40048343.7%211 W · 272 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b88…5cebbacked Nets37c80,000$29,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50,400944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Bulls58c74,071$42,997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42,997.242,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e82…752cbacked Nets38c68,267$26,210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42,056.811,20455.3%666 W · 538 L+52.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Bulls57c66,348$38,066 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38,065.541,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7960…b94fbacked Nets40c54,200$21,782 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,417.6919751.8%102 W · 95 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked Nets39c38,406$14,978 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,427.8987144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Bulls59c33,055$19,555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,554.859,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Bulls8c30,468$2,295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,295.0483039.4%327 W · 503 L+6.3wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Bulls58c30,005$17,404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,403.731,04447.5%496 W · 548 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba41…5f4fbacked Bulls61c30,000$18,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,20031445.2%142 W · 172 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Nets46c29,242$13,572 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,669.595,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Bulls29c28,185$8,129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,128.981,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa8a5…122bbacked Bulls58c26,646$15,434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,4343151.6%16 W · 15 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Bulls58c26,424$15,408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,408.213,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5e6e…be00backed Nets39c25,000$9,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,25045850.4%231 W · 227 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x11db…841fbacked Bulls0c25,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252270%0 W · 227 L-0.2wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8980…d4f4backed Bulls61c25,000$15,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,349.9421951.1%112 W · 107 L+7.4wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+9.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Nets40c23,000$9,111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,889.344,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc18…2ce9backed Bulls61c21,920$13,359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,359.215643.6%68 W · 88 L-8.3wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-21.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Bulls64c21,428$13,613 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,613.241,02450.8%520 W · 504 L+18.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd9b…414dbacked Nets39c21,387$8,390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,997.4751844.4%230 W · 288 L+11.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x72b4…7d67backed Nets41c20,064$8,226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,837.7630845.8%141 W · 167 L-12.8wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x96e1…50aabacked Nets73c20,056$14,599 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,457.111650%8 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb64f…0d2abacked Bulls61c20,000$12,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,2004856.3%27 W · 21 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf9e…a250backed Nets41c19,986$8,094 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,891.4715247.4%72 W · 80 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Bulls60c19,804$11,822 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,822.262,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x52ed…8db7backed Nets44c19,622$8,589 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,033.1239349.1%193 W · 200 L+1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7aa8…56dbbacked Nets55c17,616$9,717 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,898.948956.4%276 W · 213 L+31.3wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+5.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x77d3…f4d6backed Bulls58c17,377$10,086 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,086.3229250%146 W · 146 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc480…0caabacked Nets39c16,000$6,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,70013249.2%65 W · 67 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x34fc…050cbacked Bulls61c16,000$9,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,699.838052.5%42 W · 38 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe734…8f6abacked Nets39c15,997$6,229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,768.0319150.8%97 W · 94 L+6.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x08c5…43edbacked Bulls57c15,295$8,718 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,718.1544352.4%232 W · 211 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Nets40c15,022$5,936 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,086.024,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b9a…5f69backed Bulls0c15,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255213.8%20 W · 501 L+0.6wins0.00per pick4cpaid-36.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6d0…9391backed Nets38c14,731$5,598 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,133.0227247.1%128 W · 144 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf606…440abacked Bulls58c14,194$8,211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,210.658754%47 W · 40 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x56c9…0d9ebacked Nets80c13,332$10,611 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,720.947869.2%54 W · 24 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick70cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea2b…1fc6backed Nets39c12,827$5,003 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,824.6238253.4%204 W · 178 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f5e…e7dbbacked Nets36c10,876$3,963 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,913.7828649.7%142 W · 144 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-3.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Bulls49c10,766$5,284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,283.713,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe258…2330backed Nets39c10,555$4,116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,438.5523245.3%105 W · 127 L+0.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid+4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5adf…a5e7backed Nets36c10,500$3,735 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,764.999344.1%41 W · 52 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa07c…11a0backed Bulls34c10,196$3,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,50018140.3%73 W · 108 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedc8…cca9backed Bulls62c10,005$6,203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,203.120551.2%105 W · 100 L+8.6wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+12.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Nets39c10,000$3,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,100.052,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfce1…9ce7backed Nets41c10,000$4,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,90035450.8%180 W · 174 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x938f…f13fbacked Bulls62c10,000$6,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,2005349.1%26 W · 27 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd915…1d54backed Nets39c9,500$3,705 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,7952965.5%19 W · 10 L+4.4wins+0.15per pick50cpaid+33.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfe6e…ddf7backed Bulls61c9,500$5,795 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,794.943129%9 W · 22 L-4.2wins-0.14per pick43cpaid-47.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2580…1d56backed Bulls52c9,037$4,693 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,692.8511737.6%44 W · 73 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0072…3d75backed Bulls63c9,000$5,670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,67014738.1%56 W · 91 L-8.9wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-14.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Bulls51c8,897$4,514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,514.38,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Nets52c8,567$4,459 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,107.443,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3fa…a26cbacked Bulls59c8,500$5,015 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,01524549%120 W · 125 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Bulls1c8,291$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.6564517.1%110 W · 535 L-11.9wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-44.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12f1…8e70backed Bulls60c8,279$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0004725.5%12 W · 35 L-12.4wins-0.26per pick52cpaid-52.6%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x209b…5706backed Nets39c8,000$3,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,8802352.2%12 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf11…8399backed Bulls54c8,000$4,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,32037539.5%148 W · 227 L-1.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f8b…77d4backed Nets38c7,599$2,875 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,724.3111244.6%50 W · 62 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7517…0353backed Bulls48c7,547$3,648 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,648.2327865.8%183 W · 95 L+25.4wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+10.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Nets38c7,525$2,883 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,642.242,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c58…7aebbacked Nets43c7,502$3,226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,276.33560%3 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.21per pick39cpaid+43.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3135…26a0backed Nets39c7,500$2,925 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,574.974360.5%26 W · 17 L+3.5wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Bulls39c7,317$2,831 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,830.8989444.4%397 W · 497 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Bulls0c7,052$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.861,60211.8%189 W · 1,413 L-4.8wins0.00per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Nets38c7,000$2,660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,34032039.4%126 W · 194 L-1.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Bulls59c6,981$4,136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,136.114,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Bulls37c6,681$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,500.271,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd995…2b51backed Bulls15c6,674$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0202536%9 W · 16 L+3.5wins+0.14per pick22cpaid+28.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe12a…67efbacked Bulls61c6,500$3,965 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,96515841.1%65 W · 93 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf2a…0525backed Bulls59c6,434$3,796 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,7968063.8%51 W · 29 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+15.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc1e1…f855backed Nets46c6,143$2,803 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,339.5928742.9%123 W · 164 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8716…bd57backed Nets40c6,027$2,423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,604.2241832.8%137 W · 281 L-10.5wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-18.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x187b…26bfbacked Nets38c6,000$2,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,72017348.6%84 W · 89 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x902f…858cbacked Bulls66c5,983$3,949 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,948.7320%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Bulls59c5,744$3,393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,393.371,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe9de…5fb1backed Bulls6c5,664$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.93450%2 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.42per pick8cpaid+382.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7db0…f397backed Nets77c5,650$4,335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,315.024348.8%21 W · 22 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Bulls51c5,646$2,885 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,885.1685344%375 W · 478 L+1.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99e4…e4c4backed Nets37c5,237$1,953 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,284.7114663.7%93 W · 53 L+11.6wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8d36…68fdbacked Nets59c5,091$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,091.3212740.9%52 W · 75 L-15.3wins-0.12per pick53cpaid-22.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x75e1…3ff3backed Bulls59c5,067$2,989 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,989.288853.4%47 W · 41 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Bulls59c5,063$2,987 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,986.8882442.2%348 W · 476 L-3.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdab4…a27abacked Bulls61c5,000$3,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0508944.9%40 W · 49 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-4.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x646e…3b1dbacked Nets40c5,000$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,0006023.3%14 W · 46 L-9.4wins-0.16per pick39cpaid-46.9%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x1f4a…744abacked Bulls58c4,920$2,854 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,853.61050%5 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-18.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbbfe…3816backed Bulls51c4,800$2,448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,44810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xccc9…721dbacked Nets49c4,790$2,347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,442.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe3b0…1615backed Nets47c4,620$2,171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,448.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x257a…4484backed Bulls53c4,610$2,443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,443.310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb33c…6dcabacked Bulls53c4,605$2,441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,440.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7766…7f4bbacked Nets47c4,600$2,162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,437.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.