NBA · resolved market

Spread: Bulls (-1.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbfa1d8323c2f75796dc79f33519d457c752d3fa49de396a54b4e9547ff47ca64

Rebuilt 3 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Netsof Bulls, Nets
Resolved: Feb 10, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $10,264
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $10,384

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,264 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x968f…dcdfbacked Bulls	59c	4,407$2,600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,600	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.1wins	-0.57per pick	56cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbe3f…42a1backed Nets	41c	2,200$902 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,298	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+1.1wins	+0.55per pick	45cpaid	+122%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6e82…752cbacked Nets	42c	1,926$809 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,117	1,204	55.3%666 W · 538 L	+52.0wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+12.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf9ba…b769backed Nets	41c	1,800$738 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,062	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	+22%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Bulls	56c	1,653$932 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$932.11	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Bulls	58c	1,210$699 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$699.1	4,325	47%2,031 W · 2,294 L	-69.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Nets	68c	955.25$652 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$303.67	3,995	48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L	+101.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Bulls	31c	874.86$271 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$270.6	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0442…45b2backed Nets	41c	406.78$167 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$240	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+1.1wins	+0.55per pick	45cpaid	+124%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Nets	44c	244.21$107 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$137.7	4,781	50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L	+20.7wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2a9b…7303backed Bulls	58c	172.41$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	634	47.5%301 W · 333 L	-19.8wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x20ec…fa43backed Bulls	59c	169.49$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	610	56.1%342 W · 268 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	57cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Bulls	52c	155.75$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.99	2,208	46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L	+42.7wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7669…f58cbacked Nets	48c	154$74 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$80.08	520	52.3%272 W · 248 L	+31.4wins	+0.06per pick	46cpaid	+19%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc091…3d42backed Nets	51c	144$73 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$70.56	543	51.6%280 W · 263 L	-3.8wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Bulls	49c	136.86$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.06	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Bulls	58c	130$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.4	3,285	49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L	+5.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xea78…a74ebacked Nets	43c	116.28$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$66.28	565	47.8%270 W · 295 L	+9.5wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3fbc…9cf6backed Bulls	56c	100$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56	366	49.5%181 W · 185 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Nets	41c	87.61$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.27	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57e5…e51ebacked Bulls	58c	70$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.6	333	60.4%201 W · 132 L	+17.6wins	+0.05per pick	55cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Bulls	37c	54.31$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.84	3,551	46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x711a…9240backed Bulls	57c	46.23$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.35	408	49%200 W · 208 L	-12.8wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Bulls	54c	36$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.44	1,715	44.5%764 W · 951 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Nets	46c	36$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.44	5,844	46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L	+32.7wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x859d…3cecbacked Bulls	57c	27.16$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.48	508	41.7%212 W · 296 L	-11.2wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x170f…790bbacked Bulls	61c	20.49$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.5	41	56.1%23 W · 18 L	+1.1wins	+0.03per pick	54cpaid	+7.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Bulls (-1.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event