Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd75e7dd7858011f29b4b547e6815092b1dbd512ac5da92d9c7d2c8523462e68c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,540
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,048
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,540 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 21c | 1,748$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.19 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 18c | 600.99$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.71 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…4eedbacked No | 78c | 500$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9807…5668backed Yes | 23c | 486.71$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.81 | 96 | 17.7%17 W · 79 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 16c | 328.62$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.22 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 22c | 248.58$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.81 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 76c | 246.85$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.77 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 78c | 222.7$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.99 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 78c | 214$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.08 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…e42abacked Yes | 17c | 205.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.84 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 13c | 193.41$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.87 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 79c | 179.41$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.3 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 80c | 172.12$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.59 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 76c | 150$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95a3…e03ebacked Yes | 21c | 147.71$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.68 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 19c | 137.65$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.15 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 11c | 135.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 22c | 135.52$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.81 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 16c | 135.05$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdba1…8239backed Yes | 20c | 131.42$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.77 | 128 | 53.9%69 W · 59 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9008…09f0backed Yes | 12c | 129.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 119 | 39.5%47 W · 72 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebed…7d9cbacked Yes | 22c | 120$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.42 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84e3…3dfdbacked No | 79c | 101.27$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.27 | 148 | 78.4%116 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 349 | 18.9%66 W · 283 L | +18.7wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fef…66ecbacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa754…ec4bbacked Yes | 25c | 99.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 74 | 13.5%10 W · 64 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 30c | 92.79$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.64 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 73c | 92.73$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.25 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e40…2e56backed No | 79c | 89.65$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.53 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf956…9bf0backed No | 80c | 86.25$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 25c | 82.44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.56 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfff1…5e20backed Yes | 24c | 67.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 80c | 64$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 20c | 62.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x215b…8ec5backed Yes | 20c | 60.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 153 | 34.6%53 W · 100 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed Yes | 21c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 70c | 57.19$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.19 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x431a…88a2backed No | 80c | 45.58$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 58 | 84.5%49 W · 9 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 76cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 25c | 42.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe369…6fabbacked No | 77c | 36.42$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 78c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 33c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked No | 79c | 32.13$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 241 | 41.9%101 W · 140 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 68c | 31.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 69c | 29.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.16 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 79c | 25.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 79c | 24.23$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.02 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 79c | 23.2$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.89 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 68c | 22.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacb7…2ebbbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 95 | 48.4%46 W · 49 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…8e07backed No | 79c | 19.93$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.11 | 202 | 50.5%102 W · 100 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 79c | 17.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.76 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 73c | 17.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.57 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe503…6ac9backed No | 79c | 15.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.25 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde24…d3f4backed No | 70c | 15.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 74c | 14.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 70c | 14.38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.31 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbd9…fd91backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 61cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on July 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on July 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.