Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on July 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x63be897f32e34d155cefd3fd8ec341790c6b65bde235c2cb7e1e3d34938963fc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,456
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,245
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,456 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 122 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x79ad…4eedbacked Yes | 0c | 8,624$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed Yes | 1c | 3,072$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x556b…4e33backed Yes | 58c | 765.85$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.61 | 73 | 42.5%31 W · 42 L | -7.1wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 29c | 746.43$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.18 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f74…8774backed Yes | 27c | 738.63$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +14.2wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3b…3a20backed Yes | 11c | 710.01$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.09 | 169 | 37.3%63 W · 106 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 67c | 671.46$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.58 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 69c | 560.39$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.21 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…b6c5backed Yes | 21c | 481.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 63c | 446.18$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.55 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 42c | 441.94$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.75 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 73c | 420.86$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.9 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 68c | 369.18$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.18 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 72c | 359.69$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.13 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed No | 53c | 334.61$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.29 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 65c | 315.03$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.48 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d98…261ebacked Yes | 76c | 281.53$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.37 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 55c | 259.97$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.95 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 23c | 204.13$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.76 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 57c | 202$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.94 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bd…2c9dbacked Yes | 61c | 198.25$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 213 | 40.8%87 W · 126 L | +23.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa5bc…8853backed Yes | 33c | 188.89$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.16 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 40c | 182.16$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.78 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc629…649cbacked Yes | 27c | 182.02$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x914d…dd11backed Yes | 61c | 176$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.92 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked Yes | 58c | 168.72$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.67 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 71c | 161.49$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.4 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 71c | 156.99$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.22 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d0…d991backed Yes | 75c | 150$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.26 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed Yes | 36c | 148.96$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.03 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c33…028ebacked Yes | 8c | 132.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 16c | 128.12$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a87…911fbacked Yes | 66c | 125.3$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.91 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +6.8wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 68c | 122$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.08 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 73c | 120.04$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.24 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 56c | 120$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.4 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 47c | 114.69$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.35 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 74c | 103.8$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.23 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed Yes | 49c | 101.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.53 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xacb7…2ebbbacked Yes | 19c | 97.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 95 | 48.4%46 W · 49 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 29c | 97.07$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.15 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1775…85b0backed Yes | 57c | 96.13$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 366 | 48.4%177 W · 189 L | +25.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 73c | 96$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.92 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e39…35efbacked Yes | 62c | 95.68$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.59 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 61c | 93.51$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 72c | 92.56$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 38c | 92.51$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.21 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 26c | 92$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 74c | 88.69$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c59…0c2cbacked Yes | 68c | 86.83$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.76 | 97 | 59.8%58 W · 39 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 55c | 84.74$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.02 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 68c | 83.08$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 65c | 80$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 33c | 80$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea4…90edbacked Yes | 69c | 77.81$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.99 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +7.7wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 65c | 76.01$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 61c | 75.56$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.75 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 62c | 74.89$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.23 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 68c | 71.48$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.41 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 30c | 69.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.01 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 23c | 65.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3f…fde2backed No | 61c | 65.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.07 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb9…ce8fbacked No | 31c | 64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.16 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc176…5d01backed Yes | 63c | 59.35$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 104 | 63.5%66 W · 38 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 48c | 58.21$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.36 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked Yes | 37c | 55.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 61c | 54.57$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.05 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 29c | 53.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.89 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 28c | 50.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd5fb…b01bbacked Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 104 | 34.6%36 W · 68 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc55…522bbacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 178 | 31.5%56 W · 122 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.33 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed Yes | 50c | 49.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b73…02c0backed Yes | 41c | 49.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -4.0wins | -0.20per pick | 55cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc97e…09abbacked No | 63c | 48.8$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.88 | 161 | 61.5%99 W · 62 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d6…eb5cbacked Yes | 61c | 48.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.59 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c39…cf4abacked Yes | 28c | 47.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…b6ddbacked Yes | 58c | 47.23$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.47 | 47 | 76.6%36 W · 11 L | +7.0wins | +0.15per pick | 62cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0288…ee2ebacked Yes | 33c | 45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 222 | 32%71 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 29c | 44.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.65 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b31…4eb6backed Yes | 68c | 43.51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.61 | 219 | 64.8%142 W · 77 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d3…5b5ebacked Yes | 25c | 43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 121 | 57%69 W · 52 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 64c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 75c | 38.47$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.67 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 35c | 37.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6283…3e7abacked Yes | 34c | 37.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf69…6f13backed Yes | 57c | 35.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 95 | 46.3%44 W · 51 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 66c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37f…28bebacked Yes | 68c | 34.94$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +16%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 58c | 33.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf261…3335backed Yes | 40c | 33.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38c7…1c86backed Yes | 60c | 32.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f7…f8debacked Yes | 70c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 287 | 42.5%122 W · 165 L | +24.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…813abacked Yes | 51c | 29.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x726c…ebe0backed Yes | 52c | 28.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…8bfebacked Yes | 55c | 28.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 191 | 66.5%127 W · 64 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 72c | 27.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 70c | 26.74$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on July 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on July 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on July 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.