TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on July 19?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$42,456
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$42,245

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,456 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 122 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x79ad…4eedbacked Yes0c8,624$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.856845.6%31 W · 37 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-18.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5f5…5d54backed Yes1c3,072$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1428324.7%70 W · 213 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-22.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x556b…4e33backed Yes58c765.85$448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$447.617342.5%31 W · 42 L-7.1wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-24.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes29c746.43$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.1810,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4f74…8774backed Yes27c738.63$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20021236.8%78 W · 134 L+14.2wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+15.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5d3b…3a20backed Yes11c710.01$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.0916937.3%63 W · 106 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x09b4…e56dbacked No67c671.46$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.5872042.2%304 W · 416 L+26.5wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+30.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No69c560.39$388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.214,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7353…b6c5backed Yes21c481.83$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10018347%86 W · 97 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41e5…e283backed No63c446.18$283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.551,28256.7%727 W · 555 L-28.5wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed Yes42c441.94$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.7557044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No73c420.86$309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.92,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No68c369.18$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.182,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0729…5f54backed No72c359.69$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.1367158.6%393 W · 278 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a7c…d7b8backed No53c334.61$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.2922550.7%114 W · 111 L+11.8wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1546…778bbacked Yes65c315.03$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.4835429.9%106 W · 248 L-17.6wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-23.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0d98…261ebacked Yes76c281.53$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.376750.7%34 W · 33 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick45cpaid-6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed No55c259.97$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.9546824.4%114 W · 354 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-27.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed Yes23c204.13$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.761,16338.2%444 W · 719 L+19.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No57c202$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.944,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6bd…2c9dbacked Yes61c198.25$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12021340.8%87 W · 126 L+23.8wins+0.11per pick30cpaid+34%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xa5bc…8853backed Yes33c188.89$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.162030%6 W · 14 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-31.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes40c182.16$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.782,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc629…649cbacked Yes27c182.02$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501136.4%4 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick36cpaid-18.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x914d…dd11backed Yes61c176$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.9210246.1%47 W · 55 L-6.8wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-8.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6786…c8ffbacked Yes58c168.72$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.6732440.1%130 W · 194 L+12.6wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No71c161.49$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.45,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No71c156.99$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.224,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2d0…d991backed Yes75c150$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.265560%33 W · 22 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33e8…dc93backed Yes36c148.96$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.0323941.4%99 W · 140 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c33…028ebacked Yes8c132.03$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9be9…7017backed Yes16c128.12$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7465627.4%180 W · 476 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick26cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a87…911fbacked Yes66c125.3$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.915257.7%30 W · 22 L+6.8wins+0.13per pick45cpaid+38.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No68c122$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.084,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No73c120.04$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.242,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No56c120$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.45,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No47c114.69$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.352,30226.9%620 W · 1,682 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No74c103.8$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.233,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed54…4967backed Yes49c101.13$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.5349854.6%272 W · 226 L+46.4wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+20.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xacb7…2ebbbacked Yes19c97.99$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.059548.4%46 W · 49 L+5.1wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes29c97.07$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.159,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1775…85b0backed Yes57c96.13$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5536648.4%177 W · 189 L+25.4wins+0.07per pick41cpaid-3.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No73c96$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.924,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e39…35efbacked Yes62c95.68$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.592650%13 W · 13 L+3.4wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+25.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No61c93.51$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3612,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No72c92.56$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.52,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes38c92.51$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.2156627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes26c92$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.924,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No74c88.69$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.757,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c59…0c2cbacked Yes68c86.83$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.769759.8%58 W · 39 L-6.8wins-0.07per pick67cpaid-12.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes55c84.74$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.0286952.7%458 W · 411 L-3.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No68c83.08$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.883,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No65c80$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd90e…03b6backed Yes33c80$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.41,14849.6%569 W · 579 L-34.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ea4…90edbacked Yes69c77.81$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.996654.5%36 W · 30 L+7.7wins+0.12per pick43cpaid+18.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x90ae…2475backed No65c76.01$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.657150.4%288 W · 283 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes61c75.56$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.7541966.6%279 W · 140 L+36.9wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+13.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No62c74.89$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.232,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd71…1281backed Yes68c71.48$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.4153951.9%280 W · 259 L+54.4wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+23%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed Yes30c69.98$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.014,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes23c65.77$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.396,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9d3f…fde2backed No61c65.07$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.075054%27 W · 23 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-14.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2bb9…ce8fbacked No31c64$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.1615236.2%55 W · 97 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc176…5d01backed Yes63c59.35$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.510463.5%66 W · 38 L+6.1wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+1.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xac64…866ebacked No48c58.21$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.3671057.9%411 W · 299 L+1.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x286d…825abacked Yes37c55.12$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3262555.2%345 W · 280 L-12.1wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed No61c54.57$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.052,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No29c53.01$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.891,56737.2%583 W · 984 L+243.6wins+0.16per pick22cpaid+25.1%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes28c50.25$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.021,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xd5fb…b01bbacked Yes29c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.510434.6%36 W · 68 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc55…522bbacked Yes26c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1317831.5%56 W · 122 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb615…62b9backed No71c50$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.3360550.7%307 W · 298 L-15.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4184…c863backed Yes50c49.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.1989951.6%464 W · 435 L-40.0wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b73…02c0backed Yes41c49.08$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202035%7 W · 13 L-4.0wins-0.20per pick55cpaid-39.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc97e…09abbacked No63c48.8$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.8816161.5%99 W · 62 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-10.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf9d6…eb5cbacked Yes61c48.67$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.597949.4%39 W · 40 L+6.7wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+13.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7c39…cf4abacked Yes28c47.31$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.332544%11 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-21.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6845…b6ddbacked Yes58c47.23$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.474776.6%36 W · 11 L+7.0wins+0.15per pick62cpaid+25%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x0288…ee2ebacked Yes33c45$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8522232%71 W · 151 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No29c44.37$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.651,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b31…4eb6backed Yes68c43.51$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.6121964.8%142 W · 77 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-2.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0d3…5b5ebacked Yes25c43$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7512157%69 W · 52 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No64c40$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.43,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No75c38.47$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.679,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed Yes35c37.55$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6283…3e7abacked Yes34c37.5$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.752231.8%7 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid+5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf69…6f13backed Yes57c35.05$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.989546.3%44 W · 51 L-7.5wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-17.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No66c35$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.7365353.4%349 W · 304 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd37f…28bebacked Yes68c34.94$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.684440.9%18 W · 26 L+3.1wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+16%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No58c33.83$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.283,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf261…3335backed Yes40c33.25$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.333839.5%15 W · 23 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-13.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x38c7…1c86backed Yes60c32.98$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6311844.1%52 W · 66 L+5.4wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes34c30$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.121,27434%433 W · 841 L+46.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfaf3…782cbacked No63c30$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.11,87663%1,181 W · 695 L+0.3wins0.00per pick63cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61f7…f8debacked Yes70c30$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2128742.5%122 W · 165 L+24.3wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+24.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6bee…813abacked Yes51c29.29$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153360.6%20 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x726c…ebe0backed Yes52c28.62$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151361.5%8 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick67cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x186d…8bfebacked Yes55c28.05$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.319166.5%127 W · 64 L+6.9wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa016…67c2backed No72c27.29$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.7751156.6%289 W · 222 L-0.7wins0.00per pick57cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x885f…7bf9backed No70c26.74$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.0754656.4%308 W · 238 L+15.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.