Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on July 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x99c13b6ac9a2fd3f6ff6ebe2f0ea721ceeec940bc953b41fc390d9f5477e4f39
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,734
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,484
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,734 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 28c | 600$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.86 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 27c | 404.98$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.34 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 77c | 385$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.48 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 78c | 354.77$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.53 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e53…14e7backed Yes | 13c | 342.38$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.78 | 150 | 27.3%41 W · 109 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 72c | 338.48$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.13 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 10c | 286.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.61 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 26c | 231.96$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.34 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…262dbacked Yes | 5c | 216.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +21.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 10c | 211.37$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 29c | 205.83$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.68 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc629…649cbacked Yes | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed No | 72c | 163$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.12 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d0…d991backed Yes | 12c | 150$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 75c | 138.64$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.95 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9008…09f0backed Yes | 16c | 131.35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 119 | 39.5%47 W · 72 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 73c | 113$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.9 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 73c | 105$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 70c | 102.39$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.72 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 27c | 101.34$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 25c | 94.62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e40…2e56backed No | 75c | 92.21$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.05 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 75c | 87.92$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.64 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 74c | 84.82$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.97 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 74c | 83.08$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacb7…2ebbbacked Yes | 31c | 80$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.12 | 95 | 48.4%46 W · 49 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 27c | 73.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 68c | 71.22$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.93 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 25c | 70.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 34c | 68.1$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed No | 74c | 65.73$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.18 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x633e…d305backed Yes | 30c | 64.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 27c | 50.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf48b…136fbacked No | 71c | 50.7$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 75cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 27c | 50.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5fb…b01bbacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 104 | 34.6%36 W · 68 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0288…ee2ebacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 222 | 32%71 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 79c | 49.61$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 63c | 46.79$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.31 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86da…1cf6backed Yes | 28c | 45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 153 | 45.8%70 W · 83 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6283…3e7abacked Yes | 33c | 37.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98d1…019abacked Yes | 37c | 35.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 255 | 36.9%94 W · 161 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 71c | 35.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 29c | 34.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 34c | 34.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 68c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 71c | 29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 73c | 25.51$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 73c | 25.04$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 76c | 23.52$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 68c | 21.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f3…52d8backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x42aa…7d26backed No | 70c | 19.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -8.4wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 69c | 18.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 69c | 18.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 66c | 18.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 74c | 17.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked No | 74c | 17.45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 241 | 41.9%101 W · 140 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 65c | 15.81$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 69c | 14.65$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on July 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on July 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on July 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.