TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on July 19?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$96,870
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$113,482

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $96,870 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 126 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe58b…3980backed No3c3,676$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1201030%3 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-51.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes14c3,601$521 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,080.22,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes55c3,321$1,813 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,508.82,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cd2…c304backed Yes18c2,505$463 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,042.8916038.8%62 W · 98 L+18.0wins+0.11per pick28cpaid+123.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes19c2,252$424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,828.54,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9807…5668backed Yes28c1,836$511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,325.049617.7%17 W · 79 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick15cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x116d…fbf1backed Yes5c1,644$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,554.1317859%105 W · 73 L+20.1wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+26.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2330…ed99backed Yes35c1,388$487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$900.442650%13 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed No1c1,168$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4546824.4%114 W · 354 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-27.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No73c1,099$806 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$805.763,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x09b4…e56dbacked No2c1,074$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4172042.2%304 W · 416 L+26.5wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+30.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xca9c…e62bbacked Yes13c898.29$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$778.297132.4%23 W · 48 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes11c709.35$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$629.38,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1546…778bbacked Yes65c659.93$428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.5135429.9%106 W · 248 L-17.6wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-23.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf421…efcebacked Yes15c652.32$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$552.5842820.1%86 W · 342 L+9.8wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+29.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No25c554.23$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.084,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd615…ae32backed No25c537.13$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.6733962.8%213 W · 126 L+40.8wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+17.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xebed…7d9cbacked Yes13c520$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$450.3513430.6%41 W · 93 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes12c508$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$449.4963143.1%272 W · 359 L-14.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8847…262dbacked Yes11c443.66$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$394.4625230.6%77 W · 175 L+21.0wins+0.08per pick22cpaid+7.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x41e5…e283backed No60c439.46$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.551,28256.7%727 W · 555 L-28.5wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e4d…1cb0backed Yes32c420.77$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.511154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9876…86b4backed No40c404.4$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.841566.7%10 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+21.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed Yes16c400$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33657044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0729…5f54backed Yes31c396.73$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.867158.6%393 W · 278 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes20c389.39$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.7943050.2%216 W · 214 L+21.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3a02…576dbacked Yes10c383.75$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$343.633023.3%7 W · 23 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7bf1…3f67backed No63c373.97$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.893240.6%13 W · 19 L-2.8wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-27%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf9dd…4226backed Yes28c349.21$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.774045%18 W · 22 L+3.9wins+0.10per pick35cpaid+9.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x556b…4e33backed Yes32c345.19$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.427342.5%31 W · 42 L-7.1wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-24.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9aeb…2729backed Yes38c342.51$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.254141.5%17 W · 24 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-12.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No12c338$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.364,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No67c327.58$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.484,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6786…c8ffbacked Yes16c325.38$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.3632440.1%130 W · 194 L+12.6wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7353…b6c5backed No31c320.47$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10018347%86 W · 97 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No75c315.97$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.62,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes11c308.46$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.7710,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2ff2…01b9backed No67c287.91$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.7786952.7%458 W · 411 L-3.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No6c267.61$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.212,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No8c265.45$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.991,56737.2%583 W · 984 L+243.6wins+0.16per pick22cpaid+25.1%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xc629…649cbacked Yes78c255.4$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.41136.4%4 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick36cpaid-18.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f74…8774backed Yes40c250.5$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.521236.8%78 W · 134 L+14.2wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+15.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5a7c…d7b8backed No80c246.68$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.5422550.7%114 W · 111 L+11.8wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes5c233.31$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.7916036.3%58 W · 102 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x33e8…dc93backed Yes15c211.84$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.3623941.4%99 W · 140 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xed54…4967backed Yes8c209.23$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.7749854.6%272 W · 226 L+46.4wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+20.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa754…ec4bbacked Yes14c206.55$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.117413.5%10 W · 64 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4de1…18a2backed Yes8c200$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18443515.2%66 W · 369 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick14cpaid+14.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No20c197.36$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.312,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked No40c195.99$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.312,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d02…8c5dbacked Yes26c190.32$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.735754.4%31 W · 26 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc176…5d01backed Yes45c187.35$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.7510463.5%66 W · 38 L+6.1wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+1.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x80e1…47a8backed No80c184.35$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.6824262.4%151 W · 91 L+0.7wins0.00per pick62cpaid+5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed Yes31c183$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.111,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No37c182.54$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.92,30226.9%620 W · 1,682 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No15c179.81$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.992,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed Yes8c172.22$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.442,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf419…5f89backed Yes7c171$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.0394919.7%187 W · 762 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes75c161.87$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.8544945.9%206 W · 243 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes8c160$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.534918.9%66 W · 283 L+18.7wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+40.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x517d…f41fbacked Yes33c159.32$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.3213048.5%63 W · 67 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3387…c3f7backed Yes36c153.96$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.02250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+40.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ec6…b459backed No14c150$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.6538146.5%177 W · 204 L+19.8wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No55c149.86$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.8212,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x9cfd…dfe7backed No63c147.16$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.9399961.8%617 W · 382 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1385…e96abacked Yes17c144.17$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.0813732.1%44 W · 93 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-20.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6bd…2c9dbacked Yes14c138.87$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.8721340.8%87 W · 126 L+23.8wins+0.11per pick30cpaid+34%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No10c135.94$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.172,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5597…0c9fbacked Yes9c134.63$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.592653.8%14 W · 12 L+3.1wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+54.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed Yes13c130$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.849646%228 W · 268 L+16.9wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No73c125$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.115,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes12c124.8$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.373,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfa8c…9169backed Yes49c122.48$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.6540265.9%265 W · 137 L+31.7wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+7.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x61b9…07dfbacked Yes52c121.26$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.0310447.1%49 W · 55 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c57…372dbacked Yes28c120.63$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.491,53124.2%371 W · 1,160 L+15.4wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes47c114.36$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.1156627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No48c107.54$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.122,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No52c106.85$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.622,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb532…8577backed Yes15c105$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.0919133.5%64 W · 127 L+10.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+2.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes10c103.2$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.951,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x65ce…6ff8backed No22c100.18$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.6619345.6%88 W · 105 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x82f3…9f82backed Yes23c100$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$771,45524.7%359 W · 1,096 L-33.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cb0…c615backed Yes10c100$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$901942.1%8 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+47.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xca75…0a64backed Yes13c95.17$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.81,01058.1%587 W · 423 L-34.0wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-4.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb86…fb51backed Yes14c91.42$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.083511.4%4 W · 31 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-42.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes20c85.28$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.9212,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6dce…4490backed Yes31c80$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.21,28519.5%250 W · 1,035 L+44.3wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x37d2…b4cebacked No65c76.64$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50966.7%6 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick66cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61f7…f8debacked Yes31c76.19$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.7228742.5%122 W · 165 L+24.3wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+24.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd7b4…5199backed Yes32c74.39$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.663357.6%19 W · 14 L+2.7wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2bb9…ce8fbacked No25c72$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1815236.2%55 W · 97 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac64…866ebacked No58c72$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.4771057.9%411 W · 299 L+1.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x803a…219ebacked Yes17c66.5$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.326265.6%172 W · 90 L+14.2wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+8.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8d3d…31b8backed Yes46c65.33$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.02366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+21.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc29…b3b6backed Yes25c64.36$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.378252.4%43 W · 39 L+5.3wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+1.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No37c64.23$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.686,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4a2f…e889backed Yes51c62.46$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.8622849.6%113 W · 115 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes19c60.61$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.0947239.8%188 W · 284 L+31.2wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+35.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x86da…1cf6backed No79c55.46$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.6715345.8%70 W · 83 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x34a9…4cfdbacked Yes38c51.24$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.862263.6%14 W · 8 L+5.4wins+0.24per pick39cpaid+75.5%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.