Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x96850862c6908df6d2852ccf85d0b3689eaa5dec6ecc1197ab0f6df48db9a827
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,247
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,776
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,247 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 8c | 1,104$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.27 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…7752backed Yes | 6c | 758.5$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.51 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 3c | 600.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc84b…fe57backed Yes | 67c | 577.74$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.81 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3016…54e9backed Yes | 2c | 544.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 136 | 14.7%20 W · 116 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 5c | 531.59$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.11 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1775…85b0backed Yes | 6c | 521.78$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.05 | 366 | 48.4%177 W · 189 L | +25.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 3c | 499.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 27c | 499.23$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.22 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 4c | 495.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1e53…14e7backed Yes | 23c | 439.66$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.34 | 150 | 27.3%41 W · 109 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5c…a240backed Yes | 18c | 399.9$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.59 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x726e…aafbbacked Yes | 18c | 399.9$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.39 | 232 | 69%160 W · 72 L | +23.7wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3069…0cf2backed Yes | 18c | 399.89$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.59 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 6c | 349.31$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 10c | 340$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.3 | 349 | 18.9%66 W · 283 L | +18.7wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 21c | 289.64$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.52 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 10c | 270.77$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.06 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe679…636abacked Yes | 4c | 249.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 111 | 33.3%37 W · 74 L | +6.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9047…2959backed Yes | 30c | 247.13$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.46 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…813abacked Yes | 5c | 230.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 5c | 227.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…e42abacked Yes | 12c | 222.25$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.23 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 18c | 208.75$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.58 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c56…14ccbacked Yes | 6c | 200.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 68 | 30.9%21 W · 47 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 10c | 169.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 55c | 165$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.3 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3e5…5e3fbacked Yes | 60c | 150$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92c9…c500backed Yes | 18c | 140.26$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.47 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked Yes | 12c | 124.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x07de…d541backed Yes | 11c | 119.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d4…028ebacked Yes | 19c | 111.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 43c | 109.35$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.85 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 52c | 108.54$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.57 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc55…522bbacked Yes | 10c | 104.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 178 | 31.5%56 W · 122 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x818b…1646backed Yes | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 108 | 50.9%55 W · 53 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.21 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb259…9207backed Yes | 44c | 96.3$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.51 | 110 | 27.3%30 W · 80 L | -22.3wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xf045…c619backed Yes | 64c | 93.18$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 68c | 87.24$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.66 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 12c | 86.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 59c | 80$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.92 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 26c | 80$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 16c | 79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 245 | 42.9%105 W · 140 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 55c | 77.65$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.71 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 74c | 76$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.42 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked No | 78c | 75$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 201 | 73.1%147 W · 54 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 79c | 74.96$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.76 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 79c | 69.86$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.45 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 23c | 67.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccd0…7482backed Yes | 17c | 64.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed No | 66c | 61.42$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 69c | 59.77$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.81 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 62c | 59.09$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.69 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cce…71adbacked Yes | 21c | 58.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…65d5backed No | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 78 | 17.9%14 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 66c | 54.28$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.67 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x604e…2cb1backed Yes | 29c | 53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -3.4wins | -0.24per pick | 31cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…4d70backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 84 | 66.7%56 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked Yes | 61c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.45 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 43c | 45.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e8…69e7backed No | 37c | 40.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 26c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.56 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 31c | 37.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8e…1445backed Yes | 33c | 36.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 53c | 31.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 72c | 26.09$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 55c | 25.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.49 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 24.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 79c | 23.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 75c | 23.97$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 67c | 22.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 78c | 21.78$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.77 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1f…e428backed Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 99 | 31.3%31 W · 68 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe05b…6d6ebacked Yes | 63c | 17.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 73c | 15.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.21 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x617a…8c79backed No | 77c | 14.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C or higher on June 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.