Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1b6d17b00c01ca132c8b7f4af95ac1570ca3b27ce210c67624d6962af5a7f722
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,718
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,032
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,718 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 1c | 1,583$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 5c | 1,157$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.33 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 2c | 1,096$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.84 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0591…cc74backed Yes | 2c | 786.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0941…b254backed Yes | 24c | 688.82$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164 | 119 | 35.3%42 W · 77 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 8c | 680.66$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.84 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 2c | 596.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 4c | 580.86$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 8c | 409.62$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.93 | 349 | 18.9%66 W · 283 L | +18.7wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 4c | 374.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3016…54e9backed Yes | 5c | 348.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 136 | 14.7%20 W · 116 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 25c | 340.96$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.19 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 74c | 321.91$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.79 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 10c | 301.52$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.34 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 7c | 279.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f23…441fbacked Yes | 8c | 257.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1933…1a53backed Yes | 6c | 218.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 130 | 51.5%67 W · 63 L | +7.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 8c | 203.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed Yes | 25c | 192.76$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.26 | 284 | 41.2%117 W · 167 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 12c | 186.3$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.77 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 76c | 156.3$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.26 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45e3…b5dabacked Yes | 33c | 149.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 13c | 148.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3d…d3e9backed No | 73c | 136.92$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.92 | 79 | 68.4%54 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…219ebacked No | 74c | 136.85$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.58 | 262 | 65.6%172 W · 90 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 136.71$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.59 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 24c | 130.62$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.16 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…914fbacked Yes | 30c | 115.27$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.95 | 114 | 38.6%44 W · 70 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf23…0d5dbacked No | 80c | 106.25$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.66 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb139…29a1backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 26c | 99.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 19c | 99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98f…d282backed No | 79c | 92.8$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.49 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 76cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked Yes | 20c | 74.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7c41…500dbacked Yes | 28c | 71.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 76 | 27.6%21 W · 55 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked Yes | 28c | 71.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c56…14ccbacked No | 70c | 71.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 68 | 30.9%21 W · 47 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 75c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf045…c619backed Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d1…019abacked Yes | 30c | 64.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 255 | 36.9%94 W · 161 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc55…522bbacked Yes | 21c | 56.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 178 | 31.5%56 W · 122 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 73c | 56$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf93…5d2abacked No | 70c | 49.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 89 | 62.9%56 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 29c | 49.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 30c | 48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f8…2139backed Yes | 25c | 46.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 66c | 41$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.94 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 72c | 35.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 71c | 34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc0…7bf6backed Yes | 33c | 32.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 125 | 44.8%56 W · 69 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 78c | 32.04$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 70c | 31.64$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7541…a0b0backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed No | 71c | 31.19$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x039b…9b6cbacked No | 70c | 26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 79c | 23.97$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.09 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked No | 70c | 22.93$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 241 | 41.9%101 W · 140 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 69c | 22.9$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ad…39c6backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5fb…b01bbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 104 | 34.6%36 W · 68 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 71c | 19.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.81 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 78c | 18.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.12 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2f…2de4backed No | 68c | 17.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C or higher on June 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.