TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on July 18?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$28,985
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$31,774

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,985 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 118 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x91f8…d951backed No66c1,546$1,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$525.825752.6%30 W · 27 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-15.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd661…2750backed Yes25c915.36$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.788028.9%254 W · 626 L-2.9wins0.00per pick29cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No67c867.97$584 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.593,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0d98…261ebacked Yes7c650.26$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.736750.7%34 W · 33 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick45cpaid-6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9807…5668backed No44c623.94$274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$349.679617.7%17 W · 79 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick15cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4829…97ebbacked No69c414.12$287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.2739951.1%204 W · 195 L+14.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7fe…e42abacked No77c399.98$307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.942245.5%10 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6786…c8ffbacked Yes17c388.92$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.8432440.1%130 W · 194 L+12.6wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes16c360.57$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.4542849.5%212 W · 216 L+45.8wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+23%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x8bdc…a0babacked No78c322.37$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.378068.8%55 W · 25 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick72cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a31…5af1backed Yes27c320.31$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.2170741.7%295 W · 412 L+19.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa8c…9169backed No79c316.55$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.6740265.9%265 W · 137 L+31.7wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+7.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed No67c305.39$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.5657044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed Yes14c300$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.51,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdc34…33aebacked Yes13c271.55$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.3757.1%4 W · 3 L+2.3wins+0.32per pick25cpaid+102.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes38c248.35$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.1143050.2%216 W · 214 L+21.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x61b9…07dfbacked Yes38c244.66$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.6410447.1%49 W · 55 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1546…778bbacked Yes29c243.43$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.335429.9%106 W · 248 L-17.6wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-23.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Yes17c242.36$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.2559021.7%128 W · 462 L-24.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-40.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cd2…c304backed Yes30c241.94$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.4716038.8%62 W · 98 L+18.0wins+0.11per pick28cpaid+123.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x41e5…e283backed No78c230.58$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.881,28256.7%727 W · 555 L-28.5wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x97ab…a19fbacked Yes55c230.58$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.7529953.8%161 W · 138 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd15…b352backed Yes10c215.06$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.161,85718.7%347 W · 1,510 L+77.0wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+25.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb96e…3ddfbacked Yes36c201.59$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.46922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick34cpaid-70.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf325…f8e0backed No74c199.41$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.934047.5%19 W · 21 L+4.2wins+0.11per pick37cpaid-6.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes37c198.08$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.7324542.9%105 W · 140 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a7c…d7b8backed No61c189.36$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.3322550.7%114 W · 111 L+11.8wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x82f3…9f82backed Yes45c178.26$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.951,45524.7%359 W · 1,096 L-33.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2754…1668backed No64c173.24$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.331,01860.2%613 W · 405 L+13.5wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes23c169.6$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.3556627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes26c167.81$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.9612,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes47c157.61$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.761,33120.8%277 W · 1,054 L+33.9wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes20c147.62$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.8341966.6%279 W · 140 L+36.9wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+13.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf225…42e0backed Yes55c145.76$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.1511947.1%56 W · 63 L+8.2wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+17.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf9dd…4226backed Yes25c145.22$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374045%18 W · 22 L+3.9wins+0.10per pick35cpaid+9.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7c48…6b72backed Yes35c143.9$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5045238.5%174 W · 278 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0729…5f54backed Yes20c138.62$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.3467158.6%393 W · 278 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes27c129.65$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.384,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x01a9…75ddbacked Yes24c123.26$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.1624141.9%101 W · 140 L-9.1wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-11.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b37…3a72backed Yes25c120.82$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.79728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick22cpaid-3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x517d…f41fbacked Yes33c120$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.613048.5%63 W · 67 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed Yes16c119.71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6349646%228 W · 268 L+16.9wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x371b…8786backed No68c114.99$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.325540%22 W · 33 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe3b…ae48backed Yes18c113.07$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2025058.4%146 W · 104 L+22.6wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+19.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes44c112.61$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.12,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes45c109.98$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.8616036.3%58 W · 102 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6868…5198backed Yes26c101.18$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.31,40127.3%383 W · 1,018 L+69.5wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+18.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes29c100.9$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.456322.9%129 W · 434 L-32.9wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-41.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2c57…372dbacked Yes25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.21,53124.2%371 W · 1,160 L+15.4wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f46…77e8backed Yes15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1512625.4%32 W · 94 L+9.0wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+45.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9188…e046backed Yes20c99.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2056921.8%124 W · 445 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8847…262dbacked Yes23c99.98$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.4525230.6%77 W · 175 L+21.0wins+0.08per pick22cpaid+7.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes35c99.27$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.696,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2698…2941backed Yes50c97.3$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.091,01161.2%619 W · 392 L+14.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c48…1c17backed No69c96.95$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.116552.7%87 W · 78 L+0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes53c90.9$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.9486952.7%458 W · 411 L-3.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79c9…b2f1backed Yes20c89.23$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.1917310.4%18 W · 155 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35bd…a351backed Yes16c88.54$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.17333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick16cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes35c85.67$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3027129.2%79 W · 192 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-23.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca9c…e62bbacked Yes44c85.62$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.257132.4%23 W · 48 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes18c85.15$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9812,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x710b…a42dbacked Yes46c85$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.520327.1%55 W · 148 L+10.2wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+13.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc176…5d01backed Yes43c79.57$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.8410463.5%66 W · 38 L+6.1wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+1.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc66c…7c32backed Yes54c79.46$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434070%28 W · 12 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf421…efcebacked Yes15c77.63$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.642820.1%86 W · 342 L+9.8wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+29.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2845…b637backed Yes16c74.47$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6685330.7%262 W · 591 L+28.2wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x86da…1cf6backed No78c73.68$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.8915345.8%70 W · 83 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x017c…f8efbacked Yes62c70$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.47642.1%32 W · 44 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd746…2c6fbacked No76c66.03$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.0514746.9%69 W · 78 L+7.2wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc6bd…2c9dbacked No71c62.76$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.9821340.8%87 W · 126 L+23.8wins+0.11per pick30cpaid+34%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xbd71…1281backed No74c62.71$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.153951.9%280 W · 259 L+54.4wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+23%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x59ad…0cf2backed Yes40c60.83$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.116761.2%41 W · 26 L-7.0wins-0.10per pick72cpaid-16.7%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes45c60$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.1844536.6%163 W · 282 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8ec6…b459backed No57c60$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.8938146.5%177 W · 204 L+19.8wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes41c59.13$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.262,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3a87…911fbacked No77c55.47$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.725257.7%30 W · 22 L+6.8wins+0.13per pick45cpaid+38.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xed54…4967backed No69c54.48$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.9449854.6%272 W · 226 L+46.4wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+20.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xed01…89b7backed No55c54.22$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.227552%39 W · 36 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed Yes36c54.06$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.32,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd5fb…b01bbacked Yes25c49.76$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4310434.6%36 W · 68 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd7b4…5199backed Yes49c48.44$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.763357.6%19 W · 14 L+2.7wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed Yes43c48.21$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.742,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x78c2…53adbacked No80c48.03$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.618737.9%33 W · 54 L+5.8wins+0.07per pick31cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdbb9…bf4abacked Yes46c43.29$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205466.7%36 W · 18 L+5.1wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+11.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3163…15c2backed Yes54c42.29$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+40.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c39…cf4abacked Yes47c41.6$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.712544%11 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-21.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ae4…7c46backed No69c41.35$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.8635264.8%228 W · 124 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick64cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe43f…a889backed No79c39.63$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.1817457.5%100 W · 74 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes29c39.19$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.522,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7efd…df20backed Yes52c34.87$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.286258.1%36 W · 26 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1385…e96abacked Yes36c34.2$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3413732.1%44 W · 93 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-20.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb532…8577backed Yes36c34.2$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3419133.5%64 W · 127 L+10.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+2.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7087…b34abacked Yes36c34.2$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.341533.3%5 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-39.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d2b…d6a7backed Yes36c34.19$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.341637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-27%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed No66c34.08$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.548,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Yes50c32.58$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1640337.2%150 W · 253 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ff6…e4fbbacked Yes50c31.31$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6865353.4%349 W · 304 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ea4…90edbacked No76c30.18$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.346654.5%36 W · 30 L+7.7wins+0.12per pick43cpaid+18.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfaf3…782cbacked No63c30$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.11,87663%1,181 W · 695 L+0.3wins0.00per pick63cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb07…5b0fbacked No59c28$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.4812060%72 W · 48 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.