Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on July 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab35dbb239504943dcbaf7901123fff963944675e49b6a579a658df481b65477
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,686
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,522
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,686 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4a3b…2eb3backed No | 66c | 759.86$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.91 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 27c | 606.87$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.24 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 59c | 544.51$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.49 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e53…14e7backed Yes | 32c | 416.09$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.8 | 150 | 27.3%41 W · 109 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7772…c40abacked Yes | 19c | 401.69$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.89 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 15c | 333.32$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.43 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 58c | 308.33$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.38 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61b9…07dfbacked Yes | 66c | 302.65$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.22 | 104 | 47.1%49 W · 55 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 45c | 299.02$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.19 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 76c | 255.08$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.96 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Yes | 19c | 240.35$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.92 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 23c | 229.99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.17 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 67c | 225.4$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.46 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 15c | 217.58$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.8 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 61c | 215.77$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.44 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 77c | 200$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 64c | 188.92$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.15 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 41c | 166.32$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.86 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 31c | 160.61$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.51 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 6c | 159.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked Yes | 53c | 156.52$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.52 | 241 | 41.9%101 W · 140 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 39c | 147.1$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.11 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 78c | 142.25$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.58 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 53c | 140.57$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 48c | 139.72$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.25 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 75c | 137.71$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.76 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 47c | 133.31$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.93 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes | 30c | 124.7$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.71 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 51c | 123.48$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.91 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa30f…4da6backed Yes | 23c | 121.52$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.12 | 211 | 32.2%68 W · 143 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked Yes | 29c | 113.87$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.81 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…9288backed No | 58c | 107.84$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.38 | 172 | 62.2%107 W · 65 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 16c | 103.09$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.43 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.1 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b37…3a72backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 19c | 98.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed Yes | 21c | 95.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.16 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +22.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb9…ce8fbacked No | 30c | 86.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4441…680abacked Yes | 17c | 65.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.98 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5fb…b01bbacked Yes | 37c | 62.14$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.14 | 104 | 34.6%36 W · 68 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 39c | 60.8$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.21 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 22c | 56.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.3 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked No | 24c | 54.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc901…0c1dbacked Yes | 31c | 53.07$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.87 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 47c | 51.32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.19 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4580…4357backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 65 | 20%13 W · 52 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9008…09f0backed Yes | 25c | 48.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.19 | 119 | 39.5%47 W · 72 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 36c | 47.21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.39 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 30c | 41.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.84 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 59c | 41$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.29 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 76c | 38.25$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.92 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19d7…7fc5backed No | 71c | 38$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 34c | 37.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c39…cf4abacked Yes | 31c | 36.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.57 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9dd…4226backed Yes | 33c | 36.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.38 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 47c | 33.9$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.88 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 40c | 33.04$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 349 | 18.9%66 W · 283 L | +18.7wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 53c | 31.82$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec42…5ffbbacked No | 79c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 151 | 76.8%116 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 76cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 29.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a7…f4d9backed Yes | 35c | 29.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x303a…a400backed Yes | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 51c | 28.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed Yes | 78c | 27.63$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.07 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e8…2e62backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 49 | 71.4%35 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 52c | 24.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb07…5b0fbacked No | 63c | 24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 120 | 60%72 W · 48 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 47c | 22.07$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 78c | 21.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 80c | 20.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 77c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on July 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on July 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.