Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on July 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7865bba6c7d86db7d0e916efb5af8afb202819cc1d36fa9248e29f60aeef5982
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,926
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,285
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,926 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f74…8774backed Yes | 24c | 818.29$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.36 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +14.2wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x567a…b24cbacked Yes | 4c | 726.22$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.82 | 129 | 27.1%35 W · 94 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 6c | 396.23$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 28c | 303.61$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.94 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…219ebacked No | 78c | 262.16$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.64 | 262 | 65.6%172 W · 90 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1201…005bbacked Yes | 5c | 257.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 167 | 9.6%16 W · 151 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 79c | 246.52$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.71 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 10c | 222.52$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 78c | 208.51$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.9 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 67c | 174.1$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.45 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 77c | 162.7$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.27 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 79c | 159.71$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.76 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 12c | 129.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 349 | 18.9%66 W · 283 L | +18.7wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98d1…019abacked Yes | 25c | 124.62$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.58 | 255 | 36.9%94 W · 161 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 22c | 114.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.38 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 25c | 103$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccc…61dfbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 142 | 33.1%47 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 76c | 96.04$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.02 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 13c | 94.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 73c | 90$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 73c | 89.65$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c2b…659bbacked Yes | 19c | 82.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 13c | 79.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9876…86b4backed Yes | 26c | 78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked Yes | 30c | 70.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 27c | 69.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 27c | 67.17$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 28c | 58.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 28c | 58.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…914fbacked Yes | 26c | 56.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 114 | 38.6%44 W · 70 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 75c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42c4…a460backed Yes | 27c | 46.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe54f…40febacked Yes | 27c | 46.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.24per pick | 32cpaid | -84%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 72c | 44.93$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.43 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x431a…88a2backed No | 71c | 42.41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 58 | 84.5%49 W · 9 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 76cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b43…951fbacked Yes | 26c | 41.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xede4…1c40backed No | 71c | 38.39$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 153 | 69.9%107 W · 46 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 74cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 73c | 38$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 28c | 36.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6283…3e7abacked Yes | 30c | 36.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 71c | 31.1$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 71c | 29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 70c | 28.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe54c…2c69backed No | 76c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 255 | 60.8%155 W · 100 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 70c | 14.38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.31 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 77c | 14.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.28 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on July 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on July 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on July 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.