Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on July 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0cf4ee608d351772643814931f8ec9acb0d321d98b0b2ec258430bd0cc1b2e8f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,826
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,670
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,826 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9807…5668backed Yes | 5c | 800.17$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.01 | 96 | 17.7%17 W · 79 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x567a…b24cbacked Yes | 8c | 538.32$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.37 | 129 | 27.1%35 W · 94 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 27c | 423.65$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.29 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 9c | 386.13$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.21 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 77c | 250.34$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.04 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 11c | 250$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.75 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 76c | 180$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.08 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 14c | 166.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.08 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 10c | 157.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 31c | 156.21$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.92 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e53…14e7backed Yes | 12c | 155.59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 150 | 27.3%41 W · 109 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78c2…53adbacked Yes | 12c | 146.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 19c | 144.6$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.87 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes | 16c | 141.65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.06 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 34c | 134.92$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.26 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1201…005bbacked Yes | 10c | 133.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 167 | 9.6%16 W · 151 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 11c | 126.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 65c | 102.13$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.71 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb73…155fbacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 72c | 96.99$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 73c | 90$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 14c | 88.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 13c | 84.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c2b…659bbacked Yes | 19c | 84.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa30f…4da6backed Yes | 24c | 82.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 211 | 32.2%68 W · 143 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f6…0be5backed No | 73c | 76.5$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.65 | 90 | 43.3%39 W · 51 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9008…09f0backed Yes | 22c | 72.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 119 | 39.5%47 W · 72 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x215b…8ec5backed Yes | 34c | 70.79$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.07 | 153 | 34.6%53 W · 100 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 73c | 68.35$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.35 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 34c | 66.65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 32c | 64.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…5866backed Yes | 35c | 61.69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 72c | 59.64$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 27c | 49.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 72c | 45.03$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 27c | 45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 71c | 43$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 26c | 41.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6283…3e7abacked Yes | 33c | 36.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 35c | 35.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked Yes | 34c | 35.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc55…522bbacked Yes | 31c | 34.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 178 | 31.5%56 W · 122 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d76…e8b9backed Yes | 33c | 33.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 66c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 74c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 72c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 65c | 21.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.69 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 71c | 20.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd41…ea0bbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc54…db0ebacked No | 70c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on July 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on July 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on July 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.