Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd7769a972b329aabe2c281e302af87d0bb538fa59e9d3d74689195247493fc59
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $102,838
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $104,614
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $102,838 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 184 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 80c | 5,336$4,263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,073.38 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 32c | 4,954$1,609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,344.77 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 35c | 4,090$1,415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,415.08 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 77c | 3,518$2,706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$811.71 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 55c | 2,926$1,618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,307.8 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…4eedbacked No | 68c | 2,414$1,631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,630.55 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1104…1f70backed No | 49c | 2,292$1,129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,129.03 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef32…265cbacked No | 80c | 2,118$1,693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,693.2 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 60c | 1,307$787 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$787.28 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…e42abacked No | 59c | 1,150$681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$681.49 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 7c | 1,139$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,064.24 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 23c | 1,069$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.19 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 29c | 1,018$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.18 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 11c | 982.42$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$870.08 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 28c | 934.18$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.73 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 14c | 909.13$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$779.11 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 28c | 721.03$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.01 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66ec…3adfbacked Yes | 55c | 711.68$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.27 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -54%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 45c | 679.04$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.87 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x710b…a42dbacked Yes | 22c | 655.68$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.6 | 203 | 27.1%55 W · 148 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 59c | 603.81$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.32 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea9f…045ebacked No | 54c | 600$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed No | 29c | 597.98$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.49 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 28c | 581.69$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.49 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 17c | 560.51$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.56 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 75c | 556.96$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.95 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 53c | 542.14$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.63 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed No | 36c | 541.92$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 36c | 501.18$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.81 | 245 | 42.9%105 W · 140 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…d97fbacked Yes | 15c | 496.1$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.7 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 34c | 453.58$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.11 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 13c | 450.96$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.01 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2546…5155backed Yes | 43c | 421.58$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.16 | 129 | 41.9%54 W · 75 L | -13.5wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 23c | 417.93$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.03 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 3c | 411.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 34c | 401.62$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.75 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 45c | 387.31$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.47 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x547d…b1d8backed Yes | 15c | 373.4$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.73 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +130.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed No | 73c | 346.97$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.09 | 284 | 41.2%117 W · 167 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 37c | 334.8$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.75 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…5704backed Yes | 8c | 330.57$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.12 | 190 | 22.1%42 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 16c | 321.81$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.1 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cb…015fbacked Yes | 52c | 315.14$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.15 | 200 | 27.5%55 W · 145 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 27c | 311.67$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.68 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 35c | 291.72$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.91 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 11c | 275.7$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.72 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3c…dfd2backed No | 66c | 267.08$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 45c | 240.93$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.02 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9e…251fbacked No | 38c | 238.44$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.72 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +16.0wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 71c | 237.96$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.08 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 42c | 219$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.97 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06d6…44bcbacked No | 74c | 217.99$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.07 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9dd…4226backed Yes | 34c | 217.86$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.32 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 13c | 212.05$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.31 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 18c | 211.96$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.69 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 14c | 209.36$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.59 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x511a…f43fbacked No | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked No | 41c | 200$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Yes | 13c | 199.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.66 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8867…7683backed Yes | 15c | 198.7$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.38 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 52c | 193.18$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.72 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…bd17backed Yes | 22c | 186.16$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.28 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.27per pick | 27cpaid | +256.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd2…c304backed Yes | 22c | 186.15$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.27 | 160 | 38.8%62 W · 98 L | +18.0wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +123.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x38c7…1c86backed No | 30c | 180.22$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.61 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca9c…e62bbacked Yes | 24c | 175.56$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.69 | 71 | 32.4%23 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 31c | 175.31$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.5 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe008…f7d3backed Yes | 13c | 174.9$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.66 | 134 | 23.1%31 W · 103 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 24c | 174.87$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.57 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x363b…6ff7backed Yes | 33c | 167.7$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.44 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 72c | 160.72$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.01 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 23c | 160.58$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.85 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb227…ef1ebacked Yes | 80c | 159.11$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.9 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec47…0c22backed Yes | 20c | 157.18$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.81 | 182 | 22%40 W · 142 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x341b…b929backed Yes | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a68…edd3backed Yes | 62c | 150$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.55 | 182 | 35.2%64 W · 118 L | -14.0wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed No | 66c | 149.99$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.99 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 9c | 142.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.29 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdba1…8239backed Yes | 78c | 142.5$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 128 | 53.9%69 W · 59 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 45c | 141.08$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.95 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc176…5d01backed Yes | 70c | 135.91$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 104 | 63.5%66 W · 38 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 42c | 135.38$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.76 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 24c | 134.93$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.06 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 55c | 134.87$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.59 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e91…a1b7backed Yes | 13c | 128.57$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.86 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed No | 19c | 126.01$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 33c | 124.93$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.16 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 9c | 122.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.04 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc950…9420backed No | 15c | 121.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 130 | 35.4%46 W · 84 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfea4…4a77backed Yes | 64c | 121.37$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.12 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa9e…2264backed Yes | 15c | 119.85$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.47 | 103 | 51.5%53 W · 50 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 31c | 119.36$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.92 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 12c | 117$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.83 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 11c | 115$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 50c | 113.99$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.43 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf23…0d5dbacked Yes | 35c | 112.55$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.4 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 62c | 112.32$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.67 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd731…4199backed No | 76c | 109.97$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.68 | 92 | 73.9%68 W · 24 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 17c | 109.22$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.49 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 47c | 108.42$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.61 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C or below on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.