TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 29?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$102,838
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$104,614

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $102,838 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 184 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1546…778bbacked Yes80c5,336$4,263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,073.3835429.9%106 W · 248 L-17.6wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-23.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes32c4,954$1,609 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,344.771,33120.8%277 W · 1,054 L+33.9wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x652d…46b3backed No35c4,090$1,415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,415.0861820.7%128 W · 490 L+36.9wins+0.06per pick15cpaid-7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x82f3…9f82backed Yes77c3,518$2,706 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$811.711,45524.7%359 W · 1,096 L-33.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa8c…9169backed Yes55c2,926$1,618 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,307.840265.9%265 W · 137 L+31.7wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+7.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x79ad…4eedbacked No68c2,414$1,631 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,630.556845.6%31 W · 37 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-18.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1104…1f70backed No49c2,292$1,129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,129.0314151.8%73 W · 68 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+10.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xef32…265cbacked No80c2,118$1,693 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,693.28845.5%40 W · 48 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No60c1,307$787 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$787.2895852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xf7fe…e42abacked No59c1,150$681 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$681.492245.5%10 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes7c1,139$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,064.2456627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No23c1,069$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.191,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No29c1,018$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.182,30226.9%620 W · 1,682 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x331b…193fbacked Yes11c982.42$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$870.0890040.7%366 W · 534 L+112.3wins+0.12per pick28cpaid+63.8%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No28c934.18$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.736,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf421…efcebacked Yes14c909.13$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$779.1142820.1%86 W · 342 L+9.8wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+29.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed Yes28c721.03$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$520.011,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x66ec…3adfbacked Yes55c711.68$394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$317.272218.2%4 W · 18 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-54%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No45c679.04$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.874,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x710b…a42dbacked Yes22c655.68$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$511.620327.1%55 W · 148 L+10.2wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+13.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No59c603.81$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.321,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xea9f…045ebacked No54c600$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x438a…61c4backed No29c597.98$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.4923143.3%100 W · 131 L+19.0wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+36.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes28c581.69$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$421.4934922.9%80 W · 269 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-1.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No17c560.51$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.564,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No75c556.96$419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$418.955,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No53c542.14$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.634,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x331d…8846backed No36c541.92$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19428244%124 W · 158 L+38.6wins+0.14per pick30cpaid+29.2%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes36c501.18$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.8124542.9%105 W · 140 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7216…d97fbacked Yes15c496.1$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$419.72025%5 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-10.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a03…84afbacked Yes34c453.58$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.1136930.6%113 W · 256 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked No13c450.96$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.012,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2546…5155backed Yes43c421.58$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.1612941.9%54 W · 75 L-13.5wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-28.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes23c417.93$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323.0342849.5%212 W · 216 L+45.8wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+23%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No3c411.94$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.431,90155.6%1,057 W · 844 L+7.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes34c401.62$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.751,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes45c387.31$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.4745540%182 W · 273 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x547d…b1d8backed Yes15c373.4$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$318.73450%2 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+130.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1bf7…ea54backed No73c346.97$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.0928441.2%117 W · 167 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd71…1281backed No37c334.8$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.7553951.9%280 W · 259 L+54.4wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+23%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x0db3…5704backed Yes8c330.57$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304.1219022.1%42 W · 148 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-11.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd15…b352backed Yes16c321.81$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.11,85718.7%347 W · 1,510 L+77.0wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+25.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc9cb…015fbacked Yes52c315.14$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.1520027.5%55 W · 145 L+10.7wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+30.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd661…2750backed Yes27c311.67$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.6888028.9%254 W · 626 L-2.9wins0.00per pick29cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x077c…8b1fbacked No35c291.72$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.9153855%296 W · 242 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes11c275.7$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.7298738.1%376 W · 611 L+80.8wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+32.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfe3c…dfd2backed No66c267.08$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.5333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-54.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No45c240.93$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.0212,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xbc9e…251fbacked No38c238.44$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.729960.6%60 W · 39 L+16.0wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+42.3%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes71c237.96$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.086,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No42c219$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.974,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x06d6…44bcbacked No74c217.99$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.073135.5%11 W · 20 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-17%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf9dd…4226backed Yes34c217.86$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.324045%18 W · 22 L+3.9wins+0.10per pick35cpaid+9.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes13c212.05$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.311,08855.5%604 W · 484 L-27.6wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes18c211.96$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.698,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes14c209.36$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.5933535.2%118 W · 217 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No48c200$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$961,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x511a…f43fbacked No25c200$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6786…c8ffbacked No41c200$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8132440.1%130 W · 194 L+12.6wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed Yes13c199.99$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.6649646%228 W · 268 L+16.9wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8867…7683backed Yes15c198.7$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.387240.3%29 W · 43 L+5.1wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+19.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4174…18fabacked No52c193.18$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.721,07961.2%660 W · 419 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb14…bd17backed Yes22c186.16$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.281154.5%6 W · 5 L+3.0wins+0.27per pick27cpaid+256.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1cd2…c304backed Yes22c186.15$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.2716038.8%62 W · 98 L+18.0wins+0.11per pick28cpaid+123.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x38c7…1c86backed No30c180.22$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.6111844.1%52 W · 66 L+5.4wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xca9c…e62bbacked Yes24c175.56$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.697132.4%23 W · 48 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes31c175.31$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.52,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe008…f7d3backed Yes13c174.9$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.6613423.1%31 W · 103 L-8.5wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-27.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No24c174.87$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.5712,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x363b…6ff7backed Yes33c167.7$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.442060%12 W · 8 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+25.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x85d2…7479backed Yes72c160.72$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.0153258.6%312 W · 220 L+45.1wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+23.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xebf0…2330backed Yes23c160.58$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.8541051.7%212 W · 198 L+24.9wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb227…ef1ebacked Yes80c159.11$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.92470.8%17 W · 7 L+2.6wins+0.11per pick60cpaid+9.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xec47…0c22backed Yes20c157.18$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.8118222%40 W · 142 L-0.4wins0.00per pick22cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x341b…b929backed Yes65c153.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.855666.1%37 W · 19 L+4.8wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+12.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0a68…edd3backed Yes62c150$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.5518235.2%64 W · 118 L-14.0wins-0.08per pick43cpaid+7.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1ab9…8ba6backed No66c149.99$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.9930442.8%130 W · 174 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes9c142.71$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.2910,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdba1…8239backed Yes78c142.5$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3212853.9%69 W · 59 L+10.0wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+2.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x170b…4737backed No45c141.08$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.9580957.6%466 W · 343 L-19.4wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc176…5d01backed Yes70c135.91$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.9110463.5%66 W · 38 L+6.1wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+1.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes42c135.38$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.7686952.7%458 W · 411 L-3.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes24c134.93$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.061,27434%433 W · 841 L+46.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9a31…5af1backed Yes55c134.87$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.5970741.7%295 W · 412 L+19.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e91…a1b7backed Yes13c128.57$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.862339.1%9 W · 14 L-2.4wins-0.11per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x35fc…ac54backed No19c126.01$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.224751.8%128 W · 119 L+24.7wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+23.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7c48…6b72backed Yes33c124.93$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.1645238.5%174 W · 278 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x567f…94b9backed Yes9c122.34$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.0448919.2%94 W · 395 L-38.7wins-0.08per pick27cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xc950…9420backed No15c121.48$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.513035.4%46 W · 84 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+17.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfea4…4a77backed Yes64c121.37$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.123461.8%21 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa9e…2264backed Yes15c119.85$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.4710351.5%53 W · 50 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes31c119.36$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.9223540.9%96 W · 139 L+10.5wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes12c117$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.839,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes11c115$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1021,02425%256 W · 768 L+20.4wins+0.02per pick23cpaid+39.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed Yes50c113.99$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.432,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf23…0d5dbacked Yes35c112.55$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.46634.8%23 W · 43 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No62c112.32$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.672,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd731…4199backed No76c109.97$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.689273.9%68 W · 24 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick69cpaid+15.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes17c109.22$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.491,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes47c108.42$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.612,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.