Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7fb7152b9c73e252b030e7f4a83e777cd849ba4fde9e7fb48162315dee8d8a02
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,657
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,891
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,657 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6c9b…994dbacked Yes | 0c | 11,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 166 | 34.9%58 W · 108 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,261$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.85 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 6c | 1,177$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.25 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 3c | 1,169$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.32 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 5c | 910.78$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.87 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 4c | 753.06$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.67 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 4c | 720.54$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.11 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 4c | 704.76$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.05 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 2c | 602.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 2c | 541.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf75f…b458backed Yes | 6c | 450.37$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.33 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +6.1wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd2…c304backed Yes | 6c | 399.81$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 160 | 38.8%62 W · 98 L | +18.0wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +123.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…bd17backed Yes | 6c | 399.63$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.27per pick | 27cpaid | +256.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca9c…e62bbacked Yes | 7c | 330.17$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 71 | 32.4%23 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8867…7683backed Yes | 5c | 321.53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf23…0d5dbacked Yes | 3c | 319.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 9c | 273.66$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.58 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…4c78backed Yes | 8c | 230.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 68 | 17.6%12 W · 56 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 10c | 126.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 11c | 99.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C or below on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.