AI · resolved market

Will Trump say "Tariff" during tech signing event on Wednesday?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0bf9ca9c6f8c550583709388a28414748add6edff15e6c8a29561eefc739199a

Rebuilt 18 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Mar 4, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: AIevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $5,889

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,889 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in AI
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x42c6…502dbacked No	1c	1,215$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9e7a…1eecbacked No	46c	310.31$142 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$142.41	22	22.7%5 W · 17 L	-4.3wins	-0.20per pick	42cpaid	-50.3%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes	71c	305.55$218 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$87.52	27	59.3%16 W · 11 L	+1.2wins	+0.04per pick	55cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e9b…a0ecbacked Yes	65c	260.3$170 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$90.3	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.35per pick	65cpaid	+53.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed No	4c	252.47$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.1	66	27.3%18 W · 48 L	+4.0wins	+0.06per pick	21cpaid	+112.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1672…03f1backed No	29c	149.95$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.49	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.10per pick	50cpaid	-43.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xedf6…cf40backed Yes	54c	105.3$57 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.44	41	46.3%19 W · 22 L	+3.7wins	+0.09per pick	37cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No	46c	100$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46	457	38.9%178 W · 279 L	-31.3wins	-0.07per pick	46cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x83c5…e193backed No	30c	100$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	20	30%6 W · 14 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	29cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No	46c	80.27$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.24	729	35.5%259 W · 470 L	-57.8wins	-0.08per pick	43cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9e8e…8db8backed No	24c	66.24$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.88	55	47.3%26 W · 29 L	+7.8wins	+0.14per pick	33cpaid	+23.7%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0xaee2…e71fbacked No	25c	42.25$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.56	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	+1.6wins	+0.18per pick	38cpaid	+36.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x345d…4e41backed Yes	76c	30.8$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.39	22	59.1%13 W · 9 L	+2.6wins	+0.12per pick	47cpaid	+8.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x524f…4a69backed Yes	54c	27.78$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.78	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.3wins	+0.07per pick	43cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc481…52eebacked Yes	54c	20.37$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.37	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+1.3wins	+0.64per pick	36cpaid	+281.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf7fe…e42abacked Yes	50c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.50per pick	50cpaid	+100%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc0a…ccdcbacked No	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	25	32%8 W · 17 L	-2.6wins	-0.11per pick	43cpaid	-22.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Trump say "Tariff" during tech signing event on Wednesday?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event