TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will Trump say "High IQ" during tech signing event on Wednesday?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$8,039

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,039 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1c14…0869backed No69c559.99$385 inWon+$175.15966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+21%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa8af…325ebacked No78c380$298 inWon+$81.711435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-38.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes24c299.99$71 inLost-$716627.3%18 W · 48 L+4.0wins+0.06per pick21cpaid+112.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xedf6…cf40backed Yes36c294.19$105 inLost-$104.664146.3%19 W · 22 L+3.7wins+0.09per pick37cpaid-7.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9e7a…1eecbacked Yes42c210$89 inLost-$88.652222.7%5 W · 17 L-4.3wins-0.20per pick42cpaid-50.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes13c159$20 inLost-$20.275028%14 W · 36 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-21.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9177…318abacked Yes34c149.04$50 inLost-$50333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-35.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb779…ab22backed Yes25c80$20 inLost-$203956.4%22 W · 17 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+304.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x71b1…ac2cbacked Yes16c76.77$12 inLost-$12.49837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick31cpaid-25.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked No57c50$29 inWon+$21.5267.7%2 W · 24 L-2.4wins-0.09per pick17cpaid-87.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x98cc…852fbacked Yes23c50$12 inLost-$11.51030%3 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-45.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x72ab…ae61backed Yes30c50$15 inLost-$15333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-53.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes40c40$16 inLost-$16.1372935.5%259 W · 470 L-57.8wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-26.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbfac…490fbacked No79c38.03$30 inWon+$8.037100%7 W · 0 L+2.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+62.8%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x4ec3…c795backed Yes71c25.99$18 inLost-$18.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5cc1…8b83backed No79c20.27$16 inWon+$4.334100%4 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+49.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x90fc…1f88backed No77c19.19$15 inWon+$4.41540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-40.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d1a…324ebacked No58c18.82$11 inWon+$7.9450%2 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+4.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8fed…a1f9backed No79c17.59$14 inWon+$3.742100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.