TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will Trump say "Good Friend of Mine" or "Friend of Mine" during tech signing event on Wednesday?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,294

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,294 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1c14…0869backed No53c1,168$616 inWon+$552.03966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+21%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xedf6…cf40backed Yes55c600$331 inLost-$3314146.3%19 W · 22 L+3.7wins+0.09per pick37cpaid-7.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x829d…1188backed Yes8c265.62$21 inLost-$21.520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a81…420fbacked Yes65c169.81$111 inLost-$111.07366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+10.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb779…ab22backed Yes8c150$12 inLost-$123956.4%22 W · 17 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+304.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa8af…325ebacked No52c128.96$67 inWon+$61.571435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-38.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e7a…1eecbacked Yes61c110$67 inLost-$67.342222.7%5 W · 17 L-4.3wins-0.20per pick42cpaid-50.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes34c99.1$34 inLost-$33.8520544.4%91 W · 114 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-20.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc406…07d9backed Yes53c76.16$40 inLost-$40.132138.1%8 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-18.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes45c72.29$33 inLost-$32.845028%14 W · 36 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-21.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes62c59$37 inLost-$36.5872935.5%259 W · 470 L-57.8wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-26.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x706a…0d4abacked No54c55.56$30 inWon+$25.562100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x900e…a4d3backed Yes39c52$20 inLost-$20.281478.6%11 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.15per pick63cpaid+25.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd14d…e2bfbacked Yes53c50$26 inLost-$26.5333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick57cpaid-55.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9177…318abacked Yes47c42.55$20 inLost-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-35.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2c0…6761backed Yes53c33.96$18 inLost-$1810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x13bb…c279backed No31c33$10 inWon+$22.831450%7 W · 7 L+2.6wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+80.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2b9e…0db0backed No57c30.45$17 inWon+$13.03862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.