AI · resolved market

Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during tech signing event on Wednesday?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcf2307eba07f880d4b5d604a56cdfa0c8cc037d8edc5581c7bca74197cdb793f

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Mar 4, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: AIevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $12,759

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,759 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in AI
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xc406…07d9backed Yes	24c	354.16$85 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$269.16	21	38.1%8 W · 13 L	-1.4wins	-0.06per pick	45cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc8b…f894backed No	80c	326$261 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$260.8	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+0.3wins	+0.05per pick	53cpaid	+9.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf58…c25bbacked Yes	20c	290$58 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$232	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+1.1wins	+0.55per pick	45cpaid	+220.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x27e4…ff39backed Yes	18c	273.42$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$223.42	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa8af…325ebacked No	80c	273$218 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$218.4	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	-1.3wins	-0.09per pick	45cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb730…100ebacked Yes	18c	266.67$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$218.67	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.7wins	+0.33per pick	17cpaid	+177.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2dc0…e57dbacked Yes	19c	238.89$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$193.89	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	15cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0a11…6ef0backed Yes	16c	181.99$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$151.99	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.8wins	+0.84per pick	16cpaid	+506.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x752f…cfd5backed Yes	18c	174.06$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$142.73	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.8wins	+0.82per pick	18cpaid	+455.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x04c3…8041backed Yes	26c	169.57$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$125.03	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.4wins	+0.21per pick	29cpaid	+90.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc481…52eebacked Yes	17c	150.04$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$124.04	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+1.3wins	+0.64per pick	36cpaid	+281.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x947c…9a5cbacked Yes	16c	143.75$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$120.75	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.9wins	+0.29per pick	37cpaid	+170.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ba4…f8c2backed Yes	61c	141.97$87 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54.81	6	100%6 W · 0 L	+1.6wins	+0.27per pick	73cpaid	+38.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x05e8…a97dbacked Yes	17c	117.65$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$97.65	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.8wins	+0.83per pick	17cpaid	+488.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb06…7d5abacked Yes	17c	117.65$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$97.65	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	+0.6wins	+0.09per pick	20cpaid	+8.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x285c…d137backed Yes	17c	117.65$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$97.65	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+0.9wins	+0.15per pick	18cpaid	+24.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc42f…f19cbacked No	75c	100.03$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.76	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.7wins	-0.75per pick	75cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x54f0…7a91backed Yes	23c	86.12$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$66.12	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+1.7wins	+0.28per pick	22cpaid	+33.8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x219f…7420backed Yes	21c	72$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56.88	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+1.1wins	+0.55per pick	45cpaid	+210.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed No	67c	66.37$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.47	66	27.3%18 W · 48 L	+4.0wins	+0.06per pick	21cpaid	+112.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0b58…dc5cbacked Yes	49c	51.02$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.02	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.3wins	+0.16per pick	34cpaid	+2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0f6…53f8backed Yes	21c	50.43$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.84	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.9wins	+0.29per pick	38cpaid	+108.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e8e…8db8backed No	51c	49.92$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.46	55	47.3%26 W · 29 L	+7.8wins	+0.14per pick	33cpaid	+23.7%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No	71c	47.4$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.53	137	38%52 W · 85 L	-6.8wins	-0.05per pick	43cpaid	-25%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1672…03f1backed No	56c	46.45$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.01	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.10per pick	50cpaid	-43.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x59fe…14fdbacked No	58c	39.99$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.29	34	32.4%11 W · 23 L	-7.8wins	-0.23per pick	55cpaid	-47.3%equal weight	35-0.13 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No	75c	31$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.25	191	20.9%40 W · 151 L	-20.8wins	-0.11per pick	32cpaid	-57.1%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x1964…5e04backed No	79c	15.19$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	14	57.1%8 W · 6 L	+0.7wins	+0.05per pick	52cpaid	+24.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during tech signing event on Wednesday?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event