TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will Trump say "Google" during tech signing event on Wednesday?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$12,250

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,250 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xad06…2dfabacked No27c4,747$1,305 inLost-$1,304.6837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-43.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x533d…ceeebacked Yes6c416$25 inWon+$391.04812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick9cpaid+108.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x83c5…e193backed Yes73c256.9$186 inWon+$70.482030%6 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes78c145$112 inWon+$32.62759.3%16 W · 11 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1672…03f1backed Yes74c138.71$102 inWon+$36.48540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-43.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes68c135$92 inWon+$43.46627.3%18 W · 48 L+4.0wins+0.06per pick21cpaid+112.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No17c100$17 inLost-$1745738.9%178 W · 279 L-31.3wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-3.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x032d…3714backed Yes77c100$77 inWon+$23.5366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick62cpaid-9.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes72c99.45$72 inWon+$27.775028%14 W · 36 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-21.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x852a…3188backed Yes76c92.76$70 inWon+$22.26540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-43.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e7a…1eecbacked Yes73c73.41$53 inWon+$20.122222.7%5 W · 17 L-4.3wins-0.20per pick42cpaid-50.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x52fd…fc64backed No28c71.43$20 inLost-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes75c67.08$50 inWon+$16.8472935.5%259 W · 470 L-57.8wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-26.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x006c…154ebacked Yes77c66.02$51 inWon+$14.971100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x165e…fb86backed Yes79c64.82$51 inWon+$13.37580%4 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick65cpaid+11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed Yes71c58.57$41 inWon+$17.1413738%52 W · 85 L-6.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-25%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x714f…66d5backed No28c53.57$15 inLost-$15.17030%21 W · 49 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick25cpaid+34.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xeaa5…888fbacked Yes78c50$39 inWon+$111030%3 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-60%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa901…d418backed No23c50$11 inLost-$11.5714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick23cpaid-77%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3842…ca00backed Yes77c49.21$38 inWon+$11.411100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd5c…6d2abacked Yes76c44$33 inWon+$10.562250%11 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-16.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc0a…ccdcbacked No28c40$11 inLost-$11.22532%8 W · 17 L-2.6wins-0.11per pick43cpaid-22.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaee2…e71fbacked Yes71c38.9$28 inWon+$11.37955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.18per pick38cpaid+36.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x345d…4e41backed Yes76c36.26$28 inWon+$8.692259.1%13 W · 9 L+2.6wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+8.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfd85…7427backed Yes74c20$15 inWon+$5.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc677…677abacked Yes70c15$11 inWon+$4.5450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc140…ac80backed Yes80c15$12 inWon+$32100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.