AI · resolved market
Will Trump say "China" 3+ times during tech signing event on Wednesday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x48987fef9c458f2fbfbffd36c45f90b792198f63fea06e4ce1b62afa2236e9f2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,481
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,481 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xad06…2dfabacked Yes | 55c | 1,768$971 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$797.27 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c14…0869backed Yes | 51c | 1,699$871 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$828.39 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +21%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed No | 50c | 1,657$825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$824.55 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd34b…0004backed No | 48c | 1,018$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.61 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e6…1dc2backed Yes | 55c | 905.54$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.54 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8240…d93ebacked No | 4c | 591.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…07d9backed No | 43c | 500$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3959…c73dbacked Yes | 55c | 366.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +83.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc140…ef73backed Yes | 55c | 330.89$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +57%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa528…2499backed No | 49c | 295.23$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedf6…cf40backed Yes | 41c | 280$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.4 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 41c | 205.11$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.11 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa14a…df2abacked No | 45c | 200$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.5 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 17cpaid | -87.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb06…7d5abacked Yes | 59c | 186.94$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.13 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 20cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes | 78c | 184.96$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.49 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99cd…bafbbacked No | 43c | 179.81$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.42 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf327…0b68backed No | 43c | 172.9$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x165e…f5aabacked No | 42c | 169.55$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.21 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e17…5aacbacked Yes | 70c | 142.4$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.13 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 65cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8af…325ebacked Yes | 54c | 137.38$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.72 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 49c | 137.24$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.99 | 66 | 27.3%18 W · 48 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +112.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7476…d337backed Yes | 58c | 120$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f2…3ca1backed Yes | 55c | 109.97$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.97 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked No | 44c | 107.97$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.98 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -4.3wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2887…dc69backed No | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa87…2716backed Yes | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff5a…ab91backed No | 44c | 74.11$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.61 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -77%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cad…2e0abacked Yes | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 47c | 69.11$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.44 | 205 | 44.4%91 W · 114 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed No | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e10…e039backed Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.16 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x894b…93ccbacked Yes | 51c | 59.2$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.02 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +71.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x597a…5df0backed Yes | 51c | 58.87$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.87 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9177…318abacked Yes | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x524f…4a69backed Yes | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5039…946dbacked No | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -55%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88ed…8300backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +78.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2eec…fc0cbacked Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd14d…e2bfbacked No | 42c | 49.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71b1…ac2cbacked Yes | 37c | 47.85$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.01 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9e…0db0backed Yes | 62c | 45.67$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.45 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc1…8b83backed Yes | 56c | 42.57$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61e2…7187backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6994…eed0backed Yes | 57c | 31.01$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4551…3721backed Yes | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 44c | 28.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.74 | 137 | 38%52 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7500…567fbacked No | 41c | 27.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24a5…b3bbbacked Yes | 47c | 25.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf346…3370backed No | 47c | 23.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0a…ccdcbacked No | 51c | 20.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "China" 3+ times during tech signing event on Wednesday?this page
- Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial" 5+ times during tech signing event on Wednesday?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Anthropic" or "Woke" during tech signing event on Wednesday?No won
- Will Trump say "Auto" or "Automobile" during tech signing event on Wednesday?No won
- Will Trump say "Biden" during tech signing event on Wednesday?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Big Tech" during tech signing event on Wednesday?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Boom" or "Booming" during tech signing event on Wednesday?No won
- Will Trump say "Build your own" or "Make your own" during tech signing event on Wednesday?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Cook" or "Jensen" during tech signing event on Wednesday?No won
- Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during tech signing event on Wednesday?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Dell" during tech signing event on Wednesday?No won
- Will Trump say "Genius" during tech signing event on Wednesday?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Good Friend of Mine" or "Friend of Mine" during tech signing event on Wednesday?No won
- Will Trump say "Google" during tech signing event on Wednesday?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Hell" during tech signing event on Wednesday?Yes won
- Will Trump say "High IQ" during tech signing event on Wednesday?No won
- Will Trump say "Hottest" during tech signing event on Wednesday?No won
- Will Trump say "Job" 10+ times during tech signing event on Wednesday?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Manhattan" during tech signing event on Wednesday?No won
- Will Trump say "Meta" during tech signing event on Wednesday?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Stock" or "401(k)" or "Roof" during tech signing event on Wednesday?No won
- Will Trump say "Tariff" during tech signing event on Wednesday?Yes won
- Will Trump say "TrumpRX" or "Trump RX" during tech signing event on Wednesday?No won
- Will Trump say "Woke" or "DEI" during tech signing event on Wednesday?No won
- Will Trump say "xAI" during tech signing event on Wednesday?Yes won
- Will Trump's remarks not air?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.