AI · resolved market

Will Trump say "Stock" or "401(k)" or "Roof" during tech signing event on Wednesday?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x49f5b5a2cd98af1d59c24df72435dcc15b9e1735c3d8f3a95c6157889cc75972

Rebuilt 14 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Mar 5, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: AIevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $6,814

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,814 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in AI
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes	62c	242.8$151 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$151.07	27	59.3%16 W · 11 L	+1.2wins	+0.04per pick	55cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No	21c	100$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$79	457	38.9%178 W · 279 L	-31.3wins	-0.07per pick	46cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe362…bd00backed No	80c	83.34$67 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.75	15	40%6 W · 9 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-26.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc8b…f894backed No	41c	81.96$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.56	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+0.3wins	+0.05per pick	53cpaid	+9.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes	75c	81.65$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.91	729	35.5%259 W · 470 L	-57.8wins	-0.08per pick	43cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x41cb…a5dfbacked No	68c	74.98$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.99	10	50%5 W · 5 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-29%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5f2…3ca1backed No	45c	67.03$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.03	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes	30c	55.13$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.54	93	33.3%31 W · 62 L	+7.2wins	+0.08per pick	26cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe3dd…cfc9backed Yes	30c	44.99$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.5	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x345d…4e41backed Yes	66c	41.1$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.02	22	59.1%13 W · 9 L	+2.6wins	+0.12per pick	47cpaid	+8.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9e7a…1eecbacked Yes	75c	32.62$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.3	22	22.7%5 W · 17 L	-4.3wins	-0.20per pick	42cpaid	-50.3%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4e17…5aacbacked Yes	68c	20$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.6	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-1.5wins	-0.22per pick	65cpaid	-30.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Trump say "Stock" or "401(k)" or "Roof" during tech signing event on Wednesday?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event