TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will Trump say "Hottest" during tech signing event on Wednesday?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,955

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,955 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfee8…4bd3backed Yes53c246.41$130 inLost-$129.54250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-17.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes49c239.22$118 inLost-$118.0612636.5%46 W · 80 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-15.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5faf…7217backed No47c196.02$92 inWon+$103.892100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+88.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xedf6…cf40backed No38c105.88$40 inWon+$65.654146.3%19 W · 22 L+3.7wins+0.09per pick37cpaid-7.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa8af…325ebacked Yes62c100$62 inLost-$621435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-38.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc9fe…6991backed No56c100$56 inWon+$442100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No38c100$38 inWon+$6245738.9%178 W · 279 L-31.3wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-3.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xaf00…33a7backed No38c90.16$34 inWon+$56.21741.2%7 W · 10 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick32cpaid-18.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9378…a1ddbacked No57c87.72$50 inWon+$37.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x99cd…bafbbacked Yes54c65.2$35 inLost-$35.2140%0 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdc8b…f894backed No47c49$23 inWon+$25.97757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+9.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4996…01adbacked No53c37.74$20 inWon+$17.74333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-37.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9b6…cc7bbacked Yes47c37.74$18 inLost-$17.74520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick36cpaid-68.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed No39c35.93$14 inWon+$21.926627.3%18 W · 48 L+4.0wins+0.06per pick21cpaid+112.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf346…3370backed No46c32.61$15 inWon+$17.61250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc751…57bebacked Yes43c32.23$14 inLost-$1410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd5f2…3ca1backed No77c29.87$23 inWon+$6.87650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfac…490fbacked No56c26.72$15 inWon+$11.727100%7 W · 0 L+2.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+62.8%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x5042…fcb0backed Yes60c25$15 inLost-$15560%3 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick66cpaid-19.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8975…ffe6backed No57c18.14$10 inWon+$7.813971.9%100 W · 39 L+4.5wins+0.03per pick69cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6fc6…5ac0backed Yes64c17.02$11 inLost-$10.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.