TailMyPicks
Menu
Market

AI · resolved market

Will Trump say "Big Tech" during tech signing event on Wednesday?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$6,226

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,226 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8240…d93ebacked No1c1,451$10 inLost-$1040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfee8…4bd3backed Yes60c651.21$393 inWon+$257.85250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-17.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed No42c519.03$216 inLost-$215.64151.2%21 W · 20 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick46cpaid-7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb59…e21dbacked Yes62c308.21$192 inWon+$115.874100%4 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0cb1…a76cbacked No41c296.99$122 inLost-$121.859333.3%31 W · 62 L+7.2wins+0.08per pick26cpaid+10.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x54f0…7a91backed Yes51c196.93$100 inWon+$96.93650%3 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+33.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1c14…0869backed No49c187.05$92 inLost-$91.66966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+21%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xedf6…cf40backed Yes54c180.61$97 inWon+$83.54146.3%19 W · 22 L+3.7wins+0.09per pick37cpaid-7.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes61c146.32$90 inWon+$56.4830327.4%83 W · 220 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked No34c110.69$37 inLost-$37.245028%14 W · 36 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-21.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd34b…0004backed No37c100$37 inLost-$37742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-39.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes66c96.32$64 inWon+$32.4873435.6%261 W · 473 L-58.5wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-26.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa528…2499backed No43c80.49$35 inLost-$34.7620%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a81…420fbacked Yes58c74.4$43 inWon+$31.06366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+10.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x345d…4e41backed No42c60.14$25 inLost-$25.262259.1%13 W · 9 L+2.6wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+8.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x80f9…3ab9backed No45c56$25 inLost-$24.94714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick26cpaid-75.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x35b8…898abacked Yes68c50$34 inWon+$162100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+36%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf154…6590backed No38c50$19 inLost-$19250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x165e…fb86backed Yes60c46.49$28 inWon+$18.6580%4 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick65cpaid+11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb779…ab22backed Yes44c40$18 inWon+$22.43956.4%22 W · 17 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+304.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x99c4…0c89backed No45c40$18 inLost-$18714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.21per pick35cpaid-69.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe3dd…cfc9backed No39c38$15 inLost-$14.82633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-35.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67be…8a3bbacked No49c30.61$15 inLost-$1530%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x80ed…ce26backed Yes51c30$15 inWon+$14.7728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick33cpaid+101.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.