TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x597a…5df0

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
63
Categories scored
8
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: NHL, grading 51 out of 100 (+0.01 per pick).

Best Category NHL at 51 out of 100; worst AI at 48.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NHL Inactivelast resolved Jun 26, 2026, EDT3141.9%13 W · 18 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+18.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NHL — the 31 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ivar Stenberg be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$49
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+733.3%+$88
Will Connor McDavid win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$21
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$22
Will Macklin Celebrini win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$81Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$81
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the Eastern Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$18
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the Pacific Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+105.1%+$68.33
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the Atlantic Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+618.4%+$98.94
Will the Los Angeles Kings make the NHL Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$37
Will the Washington Capitals make the NHL Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will the Detroit Red Wings make the NHL Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+186%+$27.9
Will the Boston Bruins make the NHL Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+63.8%+$7.66
Will the Seattle Kraken make the NHL Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+52.6%+$9.43
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins make the NHL Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+25%+$5
Will the Florida Panthers make the NHL Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT+32.1%+$6.41
Spread: Stars (-1.5)backed Stars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$27
Flyers vs. Penguinsbacked Penguins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Spread: Sabres (-1.5)backed Sabres · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Rangers vs. Devilsbacked Rangers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$55
Rangers vs. Devils: O/U 7.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Capitals vs. Bruinsbacked Capitals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$156Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$156.5
Wild vs. Golden Knightsbacked Wild · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+100%+$10
Spread: Sharks (-1.5)backed Sharks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Showing 25 of 31 picks, newest first.
Golf Inactivelast resolved Apr 12, 2026, EDT1822.2%4 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-36.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Golf — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Golf, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$92Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$92.5
Will Collin Morikawa win the 2026 Masters tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$11
Will Brooks Koepka win the 2026 Masters tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$29
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 Masters tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Will Sepp Straka win the 2026 Masters tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Bryson Dechambeau win the 2026 Masters tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$22
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 THE PLAYERS Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Will Xander Schauffele finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 THE PLAYERS Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT+150%+$23.4
Will Harris English finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$65
Will Scottie Scheffler finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
Will Collin Morikawa finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$81Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+173.3%+$140.36
Will Daniel Berger win the 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$40.04
Will Akshay Bhatia win the 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+141%+$112.75
Will Collin Morikawa win the 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$69
Will Sepp Straka win the 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$14
Will Max McGreevy win the 2026 Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$17
Will Shane Lowry win the 2026 Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$49
Will Nicolas Echavarria win the 2026 Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$161Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+285.5%+$459.59
All 18 picks, newest first.
Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Olympics — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-50.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Mar 5, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-22.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "The Epstein Files" reach #1 on Apple Podcast by March 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$22
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Seahawks vs. Patriotsbacked Patriots · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$10
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Mar 7, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Israel or the US target an Iranian oil or gas facility?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$11
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.