Golf · resolved market

Will Collin Morikawa win the 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1756863349eea50bf2232b19561389b7155d5742eaccc1a1fcde742e0b303b89

Rebuilt 6 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Mar 8, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Golfevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $46,571

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,571 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Golf is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Golf
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xc086…b1afbacked Yes	16c	6,245$991 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$991	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.7wins	-0.22per pick	22cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e1d…0c53backed Yes	17c	4,000$680 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$679.96	27	29.6%8 W · 19 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	29cpaid	-33.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Yes	9c	3,670$328 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$327.56	35	25.7%9 W · 26 L	-2.8wins	-0.08per pick	34cpaid	-49.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xeb49…1fbebacked Yes	10c	2,487$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	58cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Yes	7c	2,154$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$146.75	117	12%14 W · 103 L	-23.7wins	-0.20per pick	32cpaid	-73.3%equal weight	31-0.17 edge/pick
0x38b2…0b43backed Yes	9c	1,651$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.9wins	+0.17per pick	23cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1fc8…f45bbacked Yes	6c	1,521$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.42	72	4.2%3 W · 69 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-68.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff75…b615backed Yes	15c	1,170$178 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$178.48	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-49.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Yes	9c	1,029$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.43	53	41.5%22 W · 31 L	+1.9wins	+0.03per pick	38cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbbae…9a39backed Yes	5c	1,000$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.6	12	25%3 W · 9 L	+0.7wins	+0.06per pick	19cpaid	-38.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x482a…7defbacked Yes	12c	1,000$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122	30	6.7%2 W · 28 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-60.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf17d…a665backed Yes	14c	720.92$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2a4…3ee9backed Yes	8c	710$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.8	172	26.7%46 W · 126 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	+19.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7602…a5d6backed Yes	11c	672.68$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.69	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x597a…5df0backed Yes	11c	625.14$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69	18	22.2%4 W · 14 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-36.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa382…ed19backed Yes	12c	554.99$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.6	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x7479…d35fbacked Yes	23c	500$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.9wins	-0.46per pick	46cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7bf1…ac4ebacked Yes	4c	444.44$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	16	0%0 W · 16 L	-1.6wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x66df…9811backed Yes	12c	331.4$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.63	81	18.5%15 W · 66 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-37%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	8c	300$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.1	39	2.6%1 W · 38 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	4cpaid	-69.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24ac…6df6backed Yes	17c	294.41$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	29	20.7%6 W · 23 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	23cpaid	-27.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5661…5921backed Yes	9c	260.71$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.11	54	9.3%5 W · 49 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-76.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4133…e834backed No	77c	259.74$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$59.74	33	60.6%20 W · 13 L	+2.7wins	+0.08per pick	52cpaid	+11%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8549…41f8backed Yes	13c	257.47$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.85	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x498b…52f6backed Yes	10c	252.32$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.2wins	+0.07per pick	27cpaid	+91.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x033f…618ebacked Yes	9c	206$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.52	225	46.7%105 W · 120 L	+5.6wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc253…5800backed Yes	11c	182.2$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	36	11.1%4 W · 32 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-44.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0cbb…f8a3backed Yes	15c	140$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.86	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	-56.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes	12c	137.9$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.86	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.6wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf15…2f3dbacked Yes	15c	133.33$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	39	17.9%7 W · 32 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0682…63e0backed Yes	11c	108$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.31	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x84c7…bea7backed Yes	15c	100$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x752c…817dbacked Yes	11c	95$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.74	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9742…787fbacked Yes	27c	73.8$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	27	11.1%3 W · 24 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-50.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x40d5…acd1backed Yes	15c	67$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.05	75	29.3%22 W · 53 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x312d…6814backed No	77c	33.79$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.81	70	62.9%44 W · 26 L	+4.5wins	+0.06per pick	56cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Golf and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Collin Morikawa win the 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event