TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xff75…b615

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
135
Categories scored
8
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: NBA, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category NBA at 53 out of 100; worst Premier League at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NHL Inactivelast resolved Apr 5, 2026, EDT4540%18 W · 27 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-15%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NHL — the 45 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Predators vs. Sharksbacked Sharks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Flames vs. Ducksbacked Ducks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Canadiens vs. Devilsbacked Devils · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Flames vs. Golden Knightsbacked Golden Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT+100%+$100
Bruins vs. Panthersbacked Bruins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Penguins vs. Avalanchebacked Avalanche · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$99.94
Bruins vs. Devilsbacked Bruins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$55
Utah vs. Starsbacked Stars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Blue Jackets vs. Flyersbacked Blue Jackets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT+100%+$50
Maple Leafs vs. Sabresbacked Sabres · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$40.91
Avalanche vs. Jetsbacked Avalanche · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Bruins vs. Capitalsbacked Bruins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT+100%+$50
Blue Jackets vs. Panthersbacked Blue Jackets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$54.78
Oilers vs. Avalanchebacked Avalanche · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Penguins vs. Hurricanesbacked Hurricanes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+87%+$86.98
Islanders vs. Bluesbacked Islanders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$101Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+89.4%+$90.17
Bruins vs. Predatorsbacked Bruins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$138Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$138.37
Maple Leafs vs. Rangersbacked Maple Leafs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$125Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$125
Utah vs. Flyersbacked Flyers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST-100%-$75
Blues vs. Krakenbacked Kraken · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST-100%-$25
Golden Knights vs. Red Wingsbacked Golden Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST+103.5%+$51.73
Maple Leafs vs. Devilsbacked Devils · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST+81.8%+$40.91
Canadiens vs. Sharksbacked Canadiens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$25.56
Lightning vs. Wildbacked Lightning · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Senators vs. Oilersbacked Oilers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+270.4%+$135.19
Showing 25 of 45 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 5, 2026, EDT3542.9%15 W · 20 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 35 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Arizona win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$582Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$581.64
Arizona Wildcats vs. Michigan Wolverinesbacked Arizona Wildcats · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$484Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$484.4
Will BYU win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Arkansas Razorbacksbacked Vanderbilt Commodores · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.58
Connecticut Huskies vs. St. John's Red Stormbacked Connecticut Huskies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.57
Dayton Flyers vs. Saint Louis Billikensbacked Saint Louis Billikens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$39.69
UCLA Bruins vs. Michigan State Spartansbacked Michigan State Spartans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.83
Iowa State Cyclones vs. Arizona Wildcatsbacked Arizona Wildcats · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$55.89
George Washington Revolutionaries vs. Saint Louis Billikensbacked Saint Louis Billikens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$63.09
BYU Cougars vs. Houston Cougarsbacked BYU Cougars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.84
Auburn Tigers vs. Tennessee Volunteersbacked Tennessee Volunteers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT+334.8%+$83.18
Santa Clara Broncos vs. Saint Mary's Gaelsbacked Saint Mary's Gaels · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.59
USC Trojans vs. Washington Huskiesbacked USC Trojans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST-100%-$49.56
Miami Hurricanes vs. SMU Mustangsbacked Miami Hurricanes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+96.1%+$46.7
Stonehill Skyhawks vs. Le Moyne Dolphinsbacked Le Moyne Dolphins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$25.77
Kansas Jayhawks vs. Arizona State Sun Devilsbacked Kansas Jayhawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$49.57
Ole Miss Rebels vs. Vanderbilt Commodoresbacked Vanderbilt Commodores · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+92.3%+$45.75
Gonzaga Bulldogs vs. Saint Mary's Gaelsbacked Gonzaga Bulldogs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$57.7
Baylor Bears vs. UCF Knightsbacked UCF Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$74.35
BYU Cougars vs. West Virginia Mountaineersbacked BYU Cougars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$49.61
UCLA Bruins vs. Minnesota Golden Gophersbacked UCLA Bruins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$49.56
Missouri Tigers vs. Mississippi State Bulldogsbacked Missouri Tigers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+85.2%+$42.85
Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Penn State Nittany Lionsbacked Iowa Hawkeyes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$49.56
Spread: Miami (OH) RedHawks (-12.5)backed Miami (OH) RedHawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$54.04
Miami (OH) RedHawks vs. Western Michigan Broncosbacked Miami (OH) RedHawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$89Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+69.5%+$62.01
Showing 25 of 35 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 11, 2026, EDT2842.9%12 W · 16 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 28 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Pelicans vs. Kingsbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT+150%+$72.3
Suns vs. Hornetsbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$96.88
Lakers vs. Rocketsbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Jalen Duren: Points O/U 19.5backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT+100%+$50
Timberwolves vs. Thunderbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$54.05
Nuggets vs. Lakersbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Timberwolves vs. Clippersbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Nuggets vs. Thunderbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT+138.1%+$138.1
Warriors vs. Rocketsbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$250
Hawks vs. Bucksbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST+150%+$75
Thunder vs. Knicksbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST+100%+$75
Pelicans vs. Lakersbacked Pelicans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Knicks vs. Raptorsbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$25
Jalen Duren: Points O/U 18.5backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$85Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+97.7%+$83.03
Pistons vs. Cavaliersbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$25
Spread: Warriors (-1.5)backed Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+129%+$20.1
Nuggets vs. Jazzbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+194.1%+$71.58
Nuggets vs. Jazz: 1H Moneylinebacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Nuggets vs. Thunderbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+112.8%+$56.38
Cavaliers vs. Pistonsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+284.6%+$71.15
Lakers vs. Sunsbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$56.67
Cavaliers vs. Bucksbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Thunder vs. Pistonsbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Magic vs. Lakersbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST+138.1%+$40.05
Showing 25 of 28 picks, newest first.
Golf Inactivelast resolved Apr 12, 2026, EDT1216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-49.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Golf — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Golf, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Collin Morikawa win the 2026 Masters tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.2
Will Davis Thompson win the 2026 Masters tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 Valero Texas Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$67.19
Will Andrew Putnam win the 2026 Valero Texas Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$367Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$367.49
Will Johnny Keefer win the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.02
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 THE PLAYERS Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+176.3%+$88.13
Will Akshay Bhatia win the 2026 THE PLAYERS Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Daniel Berger win the 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$190Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$189.99
Will Akshay Bhatia win the 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$205Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+226.9%+$464.98
Will Collin Morikawa win the 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$178Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$178.48
Will Shane Lowry win the 2026 Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$300
Will Min Woo Lee win the 2026 The Genesis Invitational?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$100
All 12 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Apr 5, 2026, EDT728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-31.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
MLB — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST40%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Premier League — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Olympics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$15
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.