TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

First Round Pool B: USA vs. Italy

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Italyof USA, Italy
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$438,308

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $438,308 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 203 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x93ab…9723backed USA73c56,222$41,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40,999.72437.5%9 W · 15 L-2.8wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-16.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Italy46c31,898$14,789 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,108.1996133.9%326 W · 635 L-38.9wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-31.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xad2b…f091backed Italy11c22,144$2,527 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,616.911353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.13per pick41cpaid+60.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x20d6…3856backed Italy7c20,460$1,502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,957.9423351.1%119 W · 114 L+11.4wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+14.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Italy19c18,829$3,634 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,194.2632152%167 W · 154 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Italy76c16,038$12,153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,884.8423036.1%83 W · 147 L-11.2wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-28.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc3a…2470backed USA0c15,860$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34e4…6299backed USA9c14,268$1,222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,222.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked USA18c10,418$1,833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,833.281,38148.1%664 W · 717 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc44d…935cbacked USA21c8,544$1,781 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,781.374555.6%25 W · 20 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+9.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x683a…274ebacked USA33c8,400$2,736 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,735.784544.4%20 W · 25 L+5.9wins+0.13per pick31cpaid+42.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbd36…6ec9backed Italy9c7,783$695 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,088.112254.5%12 W · 10 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+64.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x57b9…d142backed Italy9c7,000$630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,3702951.7%15 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+25.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Italy8c5,734$479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,255.481,04150.1%522 W · 519 L+17.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3bc6…66d3backed USA58c5,422$3,142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,141.84425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-58.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc51a…a0d9backed USA73c5,330$3,899 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,899.231136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Italy47c4,511$2,118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,392.976,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked USA15c3,951$601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601.241,45642.7%622 W · 834 L-39.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-24.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Italy22c3,841$852 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,989.361,86552%970 W · 895 L+50.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa842…ab57backed Italy43c3,609$1,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,049.03771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.5wins+0.35per pick36cpaid+79.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5a70…5882backed USA9c3,408$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30240%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x86c8…c867backed Italy20c3,393$666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,727.533250%16 W · 16 L+4.4wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+59%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x969b…db70backed USA1c3,333$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2060%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Italy9c3,208$274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,934.21,28449.5%635 W · 649 L-1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74cd…2319backed USA11c3,105$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.012242.7%6 W · 218 L-10.6wins-0.05per pick7cpaid-64.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Italy77c2,876$2,225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$650.771,72250.3%867 W · 855 L+55.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+3.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf83d…367dbacked Italy7c2,708$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,530.636145.9%28 W · 33 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+51.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Italy24c2,670$628 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,041.8812,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Italy8c2,530$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,338.6546547.1%219 W · 246 L+5.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked Italy36c2,380$850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,530.0416132.3%52 W · 109 L-10.9wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-24.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x82a8…6c09backed USA16c2,373$371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.77100%0 W · 10 L-2.4wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x881e…6af8backed USA9c2,313$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.8110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed USA19c1,957$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.1585135.8%305 W · 546 L-23.3wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-25.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x13ff…16a3backed USA32c1,890$596 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$595.51637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed USA24c1,819$429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$428.6121842.7%93 W · 125 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-14.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed USA26c1,672$442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$442.196524.6%16 W · 49 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+49.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6884…6ccfbacked USA10c1,664$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16617961.5%110 W · 69 L+16.7wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+17.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Italy58c1,633$946 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$686.652,38943.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L-25.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb20…3b5cbacked Italy27c1,626$439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,186.9313461.9%83 W · 51 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x96f8…2560backed USA46c1,522$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7001090%9 W · 1 L+2.2wins+0.22per pick68cpaid+28.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb2ae…6fc3backed USA78c1,450$1,130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,129.51540%6 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+190.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd38a…4832backed USA17c1,379$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.63855.3%21 W · 17 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc5e…e87cbacked Italy77c1,377$1,056 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321.171100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f2b…0f9abacked Italy8c1,286$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,183.9750751.7%262 W · 245 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x98cc…f321backed USA69c1,261$870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Italy63c1,243$788 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$455.118,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3032…9b05backed USA41c1,222$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1346…0448backed USA2c1,165$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.071553.3%8 W · 7 L+4.2wins+0.28per pick25cpaid+187%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Italy9c1,111$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,011.1119053.7%102 W · 88 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+9.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8dd8…9a1cbacked USA28c1,027$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.0247743%205 W · 272 L-12.3wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-15.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0ac…4ec7backed USA11c1,000$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.421,17329%340 W · 833 L-0.3wins0.00per pick29cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe75a…5a83backed USA30c980.99$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.99580%4 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.23per pick57cpaid+31%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x07dd…0876backed Italy8c968$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$890.565248.1%25 W · 27 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b2f…3531backed Italy26c883.73$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$653.961752.9%9 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+25.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3626…19e2backed USA58c879.95$507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507.241010%1 W · 9 L-3.3wins-0.33per pick43cpaid-80.4%equal weight39-0.09 edge/pick
0xe77b…f10abacked Italy8c873.93$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$801.141338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick40cpaid+52.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked USA33c839$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.367753.2%41 W · 36 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-9.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked USA33c807$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.089241.3%38 W · 54 L-4.2wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-26.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa80c…dd0dbacked USA6c798.64$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.1630%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf026…8df7backed USA32c793$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.977750.6%39 W · 38 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed USA33c765$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.588644.2%38 W · 48 L-5.0wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-26.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Italy12c753.44$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$661.036,30248.3%3,041 W · 3,261 L+181.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x079f…a9d1backed USA34c748$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.015944.1%26 W · 33 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-25.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4db5…5504backed Italy8c699.99$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$644333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick20cpaid+316.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x97ff…f76abacked USA6c688.19$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.831030%3 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick20cpaid+135.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3100…9bc9backed Italy8c677.8$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$626.821637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick47cpaid+42.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Italy10c662.32$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$596.091,46644.1%647 W · 819 L+44.0wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf1ad…6979backed USA74c614.4$454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454.1413441%55 W · 79 L-12.2wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-19%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc991…abd4backed USA74c511.02$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.074346.5%20 W · 23 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe8e3…5889backed USA30c500$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15060%0 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4cd5…8afbbacked USA21c500$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10570%0 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Italy18c498.93$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$408.021,91153.1%1,014 W · 897 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xada5…db70backed Italy9c493.46$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$450.995442.6%23 W · 31 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf22a…1697backed Italy9c483.25$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$437.51825%2 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick44cpaid+52.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc998…f060backed Italy59c470.2$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.719554.7%52 W · 43 L-0.1wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e05…1b97backed Italy7c450$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$418.52166.7%14 W · 7 L+2.4wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+83.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5b7c…8d4cbacked Italy8c443.82$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$408.32742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.19per pick24cpaid+161.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe2e1…c20abacked Italy39c421$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.5610353.4%55 W · 48 L+5.6wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7fae…c000backed Italy6c416.67$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$391.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.94per pick6cpaid+1,566.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe70c…c938backed USA77c414.3$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.365928.8%17 W · 42 L-6.9wins-0.12per pick41cpaid-39.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0204…0e31backed Italy9c405.25$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$367.2518048.3%87 W · 93 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+18.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9510…16dfbacked USA74c403.27$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.721338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-11.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9729…e247backed Italy78c398.17$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.3650%3 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-10%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0c2…b14dbacked Italy15c394.69$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.971,14948.9%562 W · 587 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ebc…8b41backed USA21c377.86$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.971060%6 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x30ab…f338backed USA74c358.32$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.571428.6%4 W · 10 L-3.8wins-0.27per pick56cpaid-49.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xdf39…591ebacked USA74c342.83$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253933.3%3 W · 6 L-2.6wins-0.29per pick62cpaid-39.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6f20…6a22backed USA25c325.72$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa005…6646backed USA31c324$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.88425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-9.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Italy31c322.16$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.8578146.4%362 W · 419 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Italy28c318.41$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.5163942.7%273 W · 366 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb68d…9b4abacked USA41c312.08$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.78911.1%1 W · 8 L-2.4wins-0.27per pick38cpaid-69.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xefce…4e4abacked Italy16c310.66$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.6613345.9%61 W · 72 L-4.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x69c2…40cfbacked USA16c308.92$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5018239.6%72 W · 110 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4f2…04c3backed USA31c292.16$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.17633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-53.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cd7…ec7cbacked USA40c291.47$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.081553.3%8 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.10per pick64cpaid-27.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4bf2…d280backed Italy9c267.95$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.45352.8%28 W · 25 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked USA15c262.51$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.442924.1%7 W · 22 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+30.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x260d…ab4dbacked Italy12c255.68$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2251100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.88per pick12cpaid+733.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7f2d…fbf5backed USA29c252.53$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.768247.6%39 W · 43 L-4.2wins-0.05per pick53cpaid+28.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.