TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Olympics · resolved market

Men's Semifinals - USA vs. Slovakia

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
USAof USA, Slovakia
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,215,687
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,348,845

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,215,687 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 491 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Olympics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0a47…0c54backed Slovakia13c752,665$99,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99,920.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed Slovakia13c264,586$34,031 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34,031.1930%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x81cf…b5febacked Slovakia1c183,700$1,343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,34310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe749…f660backed Slovakia12c98,724$11,847 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,846.8840%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x43d4…13a2backed Slovakia2c96,422$2,334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,333.9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7a5…7c26backed Slovakia12c80,050$9,894 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,893.5714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick35cpaid-80.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed Slovakia14c66,039$9,179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,178.5830%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Slovakia13c57,500$7,475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,475714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-68.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b4d…e246backed Slovakia13c53,846$7,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,000540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick32cpaid-28.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1e6…1dc1backed Slovakia12c42,000$5,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,040100%0 W · 10 L-2.7wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xc44d…935cbacked Slovakia13c39,090$5,139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,138.912944.8%13 W · 16 L+0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-9.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16e0…9231backed Slovakia10c31,675$3,142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,142.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Slovakia12c30,000$3,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,60040%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x40f8…327dbacked Slovakia12c30,000$3,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,599.99944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.13per pick32cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x99e4…e4c4backed Slovakia12c27,312$3,277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,277.231656.3%9 W · 7 L+2.5wins+0.16per pick41cpaid+14.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x04b9…79e0backed Slovakia12c25,000$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,999.99540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-37.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Slovakia12c23,543$2,931 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,931.181833.3%6 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-34.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8cdc…b83fbacked Slovakia12c22,267$2,672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,67240%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf164…8fa4backed Slovakia12c19,767$2,372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,372.0440%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Slovakia6c19,284$1,141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,141.12922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-64.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xddd3…dba6backed Slovakia13c17,493$2,274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,274.07812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.19per pick32cpaid-66.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xae02…6d55backed Slovakia1c16,967$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.1840%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Slovakia12c16,268$1,952 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,952.16757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick41cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c38…1218backed Slovakia13c16,224$2,109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,109.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9106…afcbbacked Slovakia12c16,000$1,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,919.981323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-62.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Slovakia10c15,928$1,567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,567.495516.4%9 W · 46 L-5.8wins-0.10per pick27cpaid-70.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x07a9…32c8backed Slovakia13c15,385$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00040%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Slovakia12c13,748$1,632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,632.24128.3%1 W · 11 L-2.4wins-0.20per pick28cpaid-89.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xada5…db70backed Slovakia13c13,259$1,724 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,723.671428.6%4 W · 10 L-2.3wins-0.17per pick45cpaid-56.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6c03…d894backed Slovakia12c11,928$1,451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,451.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc22f…65b5backed Slovakia1c11,577$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.76944.4%4 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-27%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4173…d3edbacked Slovakia13c11,538$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf7c4…5919backed Slovakia0c10,334$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.52540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick26cpaid-19.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc036…fba6backed Slovakia12c10,283$1,233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,233.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe4ac…dbf4backed Slovakia0c10,040$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3730%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4608…d049backed Slovakia13c10,000$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,30030%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6286…5307backed Slovakia14c9,901$1,386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,386.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbf3…b218backed Slovakia12c9,783$1,174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,174.01933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick26cpaid-17.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa2b1…d1a2backed Slovakia1c9,737$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc23…8283backed Slovakia13c9,471$1,231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,231.261136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-23.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x64d3…0a4dbacked Slovakia11c9,341$1,065 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,065520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-56.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x685d…22d6backed Slovakia13c9,280$1,206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,206.4714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick27cpaid-68.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e00…eb46backed Slovakia13c8,884$1,155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,154.920%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc6ec…81c2backed Slovakia2c8,542$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.331921.1%4 W · 15 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick13cpaid-10.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c1f…0a20backed Slovakia12c8,333$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00040%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb583…b0b3backed Slovakia12c8,228$987 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$987.4425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-45.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35ac…92a7backed Slovakia12c8,000$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a6…7189backed Slovakia10c7,979$808 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$808.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd606…9e01backed Slovakia12c7,979$969 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96940%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x412f…30fabacked Slovakia12c7,680$922 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$921.6812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.18per pick31cpaid-72.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5d18…4972backed Slovakia12c7,631$916 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$915.7540%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc112…47b0backed Slovakia12c7,321$886 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$885.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6185…2965backed Slovakia12c6,842$821 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82120%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Slovakia10c6,752$663 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$662.823941%16 W · 23 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-22.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2ec…f7b4backed Slovakia13c6,525$861 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$860.7310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2eed…85a9backed Slovakia9c6,507$608 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$607.92333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-51.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefe8…e0f2backed Slovakia13c6,465$840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$840.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebb4…1374backed Slovakia13c6,359$807 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$806.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1400…ffd6backed Slovakia12c6,272$757 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$757.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x43d7…1c75backed Slovakia12c6,108$733 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$732.99540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick33cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fc0…d2cebacked Slovakia12c6,044$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbe8…1141backed Slovakia13c6,019$759 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$759.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x49ff…b00abacked Slovakia12c5,817$698 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$698.04450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+49%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xad15…ee7fbacked Slovakia12c5,555$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$680.49333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick55cpaid-58.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7cee…b72abacked Slovakia12c5,247$645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$644.79650%3 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5031…1ffbbacked Slovakia4c5,042$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.61560%3 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.22per pick38cpaid+1.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Slovakia12c5,012$578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$578.041631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-38.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Slovakia12c5,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60050%0 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1b0c…1a42backed Slovakia3c5,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d58…1aeabacked Slovakia13c5,000$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6502133.3%7 W · 14 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-42.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5976…b3d4backed Slovakia12c4,855$583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$582.5570%0 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5ea5…6548backed Slovakia4c4,842$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20150%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc60…f8f1backed Slovakia11c4,762$533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$532.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Slovakia13c4,730$613 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$612.642128.6%6 W · 15 L-2.2wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-55.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0a24…4a1fbacked Slovakia12c4,663$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$559.5740%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0352…1d05backed Slovakia2c4,532$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.6120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0940…3640backed Slovakia5c4,496$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.321030%3 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-23.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde68…d2aabacked Slovakia12c4,285$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$529.5310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa051…54ebbacked Slovakia12c4,167$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick28cpaid-77.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd3f…44f1backed Slovakia12c4,133$496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49620%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb853…0d33backed Slovakia13c3,849$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.3920%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fb4…5c6cbacked Slovakia13c3,846$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-53.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Slovakia0c3,726$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.26520%1 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick4cpaid+596.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c33…63f3backed Slovakia1c3,658$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdba8…9accbacked Slovakia14c3,634$509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508.7940%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Slovakia8c3,600$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2971421.4%3 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick18cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f9…bb8fbacked Slovakia6c3,595$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.651428.6%4 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick27cpaid+4.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb40f…a5b1backed Slovakia12c3,503$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x01fb…ae3ebacked Slovakia13c3,462$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb3a1…3529backed Slovakia9c3,223$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.76540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-28%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54f0…7a91backed Slovakia14c3,206$449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$448.88293.4%1 W · 28 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick11cpaid-92.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x25a9…f991backed Slovakia7c3,074$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.5616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick23cpaid+3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe495…4a5bbacked Slovakia0c3,026$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.87366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick44cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8feb…b36abacked Slovakia7c3,000$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick39cpaid+31.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0121…f82cbacked Slovakia13c3,000$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39050%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf4a4…3117backed Slovakia3c2,747$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick13cpaid-82.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6bb3…758ebacked Slovakia13c2,708$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.21435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-16.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fd0…4656backed Slovakia3c2,659$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f70…fbb1backed Slovakia11c2,654$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.91540%2 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.17per pick23cpaid-6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5da3…fd6ebacked Slovakia14c2,585$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354.9520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.