TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Blues vs. Kraken

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Bluesof Blues, Kraken
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$998,406

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $998,406 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 662 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x03e8…1697backed Blues43c178,910$76,819 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102,091.0567051%342 W · 328 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked Kraken58c173,100$100,047 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100,04748545.4%220 W · 265 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Blues42c151,230$63,976 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87,25456152%292 W · 269 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Kraken57c105,731$60,267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60,266.6779350.1%397 W · 396 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa07…2125backed Blues43c100,000$43,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56,999.941,07049.9%534 W · 536 L+22.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Blues42c59,332$25,126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34,205.751,19050.7%603 W · 587 L+13.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Kraken57c57,639$32,921 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32,921.2461950.1%310 W · 309 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb45a…192cbacked Blues43c50,000$21,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,30022443.8%98 W · 126 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Kraken57c40,508$22,997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,996.7485250.2%428 W · 424 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Kraken57c31,507$17,959 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,958.9861953.8%333 W · 286 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Kraken57c23,671$13,493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,492.7348549.7%241 W · 244 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc350…3669backed Kraken58c22,217$12,977 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,976.8930944.7%138 W · 171 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd3fa…a26cbacked Kraken57c17,550$10,003 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,003.4915145%68 W · 83 L-7.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Blues44c13,245$5,856 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,388.591,34554.8%737 W · 608 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Kraken57c13,095$7,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,50040356.3%227 W · 176 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Blues42c12,500$5,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,249.7832946.8%154 W · 175 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a09…db1cbacked Kraken57c12,090$6,891 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,891.31637.5%6 W · 10 L-3.0wins-0.19per pick56cpaid-37.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Kraken57c11,352$6,471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,470.6438844.6%173 W · 215 L-17.1wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Kraken50c10,870$5,453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,452.612,66451.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1467…4372backed Kraken58c10,776$6,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,25032151.7%166 W · 155 L-1.5wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e6e…be00backed Blues43c10,500$4,515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,984.982763%17 W · 10 L+3.3wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+25.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf152…64aabacked Kraken56c10,263$5,748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,747.5516656.6%94 W · 72 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdcaf…e271backed Blues43c10,000$4,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,699.983661.1%22 W · 14 L+4.0wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+25.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Kraken57c9,553$5,482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,482.281,43450.8%728 W · 706 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Kraken57c9,000$5,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,14061748.5%299 W · 318 L+0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3505…f7a3backed Kraken57c8,800$5,016 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0165945.8%27 W · 32 L-5.7wins-0.10per pick56cpaid-19.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0e4a…311cbacked Kraken58c7,448$4,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,319.84922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.5wins-0.27per pick50cpaid-52.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Blues43c7,000$3,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,989.9726058.8%153 W · 107 L+17.7wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1d5c…4f26backed Blues44c6,845$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,844.618748.3%42 W · 45 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57b9…d142backed Kraken58c6,444$3,738 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,737.529752.6%51 W · 46 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c58…e330backed Kraken25c6,237$1,532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,532.1442254.3%229 W · 193 L+18.3wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Kraken57c6,225$3,524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,523.561,55551.4%800 W · 755 L+12.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Kraken57c6,208$3,539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,538.5651452.3%269 W · 245 L+17.1wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Kraken58c6,000$3,470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,47027243.4%118 W · 154 L-16.8wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-11.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x44d6…9858backed Blues43c6,000$2,580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,42029146.7%136 W · 155 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1e6…1dc1backed Kraken57c6,000$3,420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,4205552.7%29 W · 26 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x42b5…b5b6backed Blues42c5,503$2,314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,188.781,37749.1%676 W · 701 L+39.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Kraken52c5,461$2,838 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,838.2175251.7%389 W · 363 L-2.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x809c…eca3backed Blues46c5,258$2,409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,848.23046.7%14 W · 16 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-11%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Kraken57c5,000$2,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,85033151.7%171 W · 160 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Kraken56c5,000$2,810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,809.981,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Kraken57c4,998$2,847 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,846.7852050%260 W · 260 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b47…d615backed Blues42c4,782$2,029 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,753.6619353.9%104 W · 89 L+7.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Kraken56c4,376$2,442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,441.812,31446.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L-7.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd97…776cbacked Kraken57c4,211$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,4001668.8%11 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.12per pick56cpaid+21.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x83ab…3d56backed Blues43c4,000$1,720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,280.034949%24 W · 25 L+0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid+5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Kraken57c4,000$2,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,2801,08745.1%490 W · 597 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Blues43c4,000$1,720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,279.9839752.1%207 W · 190 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d21…abc5backed Blues46c3,508$1,628 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,880.4314837.2%55 W · 93 L-7.9wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-15.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked Blues43c3,500$1,505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,99533243.7%145 W · 187 L-16.1wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-9.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Kraken56c3,333$1,866 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,866.3691945.6%419 W · 500 L-27.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Blues46c3,262$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,761.9331550.8%160 W · 155 L-11.6wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc339…ba5bbacked Kraken57c3,162$1,811 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,810.817149.3%35 W · 36 L-5.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-14%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Blues67c3,039$2,023 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,016.8521555.3%119 W · 96 L+17.3wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+12.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Blues43c3,000$1,290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,71022747.6%108 W · 119 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa3b…d6b7backed Blues43c3,000$1,290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,709.982045%9 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xabf5…cfebbacked Blues43c3,000$1,290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,709.9727048.1%130 W · 140 L-8.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd02a…b34bbacked Kraken58c2,992$1,726 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,7262552%13 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x069c…c844backed Blues45c2,885$1,298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,586.874100%4 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+93.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf641…7b6fbacked Blues57c2,664$1,507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,156.9652172.6%378 W · 143 L+36.7wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+9.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xdfe7…820fbacked Blues63c2,593$1,645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$947.92862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+18.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2c1…d8eebacked Kraken57c2,535$1,445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,444.95250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick56cpaid-10.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb031…eb05backed Blues43c2,532$1,089 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,442.96250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+16.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97e0…8194backed Blues43c2,500$1,070 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,429.9930552.5%160 W · 145 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9de4…7f2ebacked Blues43c2,487$1,069 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,417.58060%48 W · 32 L+8.6wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+23.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcaf5…67b4backed Blues42c2,469$1,049 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4202100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+115.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4444…ed4cbacked Kraken57c2,461$1,403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,402.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Kraken56c2,454$1,385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,384.981,38447.1%652 W · 732 L+25.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Kraken56c2,375$1,337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,337.4682043%353 W · 467 L-1.9wins0.00per pick43cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1d4…38d6backed Kraken8c2,331$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.252222.7%5 W · 17 L+3.0wins+0.13per pick9cpaid+79%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb8c8…d8a4backed Blues43c2,326$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,325.5814940.9%61 W · 88 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf699…07e1backed Kraken55c2,303$1,258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,258.3985464.2%548 W · 306 L+64.5wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+18.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Kraken48c2,268$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,099.91,30152.6%684 W · 617 L+23.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2586…c893backed Blues44c2,200$968 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,23283652.8%441 W · 395 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d1e…d5dfbacked Blues66c2,124$1,409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$715.314757.1%84 W · 63 L+0.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a9c…7b22backed Blues43c2,053$892 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,160.891040%4 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-22.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6ce…7ec8backed Kraken56c2,000$1,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,12062346.9%292 W · 331 L-3.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Blues42c2,000$840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,159.9989547%421 W · 474 L-18.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Kraken57c1,943$1,101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,100.9960249.5%298 W · 304 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10c4…efd9backed Kraken57c1,937$1,104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1041428.6%4 W · 10 L-3.7wins-0.27per pick55cpaid-49.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Blues64c1,921$1,221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$700.121,84657.2%1,055 W · 791 L+85.0wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3613…79e1backed Kraken58c1,900$1,094 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,09470249%344 W · 358 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c17…0458backed Kraken57c1,893$1,079 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,078.996150.8%31 W · 30 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Blues43c1,836$785 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,051.0740351.9%209 W · 194 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x699f…d5c6backed Kraken57c1,759$1,003 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,002.9918345.9%84 W · 99 L-10.1wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-9.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Blues72c1,735$1,253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$481.8843742.3%185 W · 252 L+11.1wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x13e5…1ea5backed Kraken58c1,730$1,003 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,003.2221158.8%124 W · 87 L+0.4wins0.00per pick59cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0acc…9dc1backed Kraken58c1,724$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00025052.8%132 W · 118 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4650…f3f0backed Kraken57c1,718$979 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$979.2613856.5%78 W · 60 L+11.5wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+32.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x71f9…16fbbacked Kraken58c1,700$986 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9862254.5%12 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+10.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Blues43c1,666$712 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$953.2891653.9%494 W · 422 L+39.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x12f9…74babacked Kraken57c1,629$928 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$928.435563.6%35 W · 20 L+4.4wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+15.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Kraken41c1,596$653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$652.522,75447.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L+11.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1418…6fefbacked Kraken57c1,500$850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$849.5627850.4%140 W · 138 L+1.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a27…e9dabacked Kraken57c1,433$817 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$816.681471.4%10 W · 4 L+3.5wins+0.25per pick47cpaid+56.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Kraken20c1,431$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.989636.9%331 W · 565 L-30.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe8e9…bd3fbacked Kraken58c1,272$738 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$737.881163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+25%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9b7a…bc22backed Kraken32c1,272$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.7135829.3%105 W · 253 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Kraken56c1,243$696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$696.362,89451.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Kraken57c1,222$697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$696.8159450.8%302 W · 292 L+2.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.