TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Maple Leafs vs. Rangers

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Rangersof Maple Leafs, Rangers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$555,466

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $555,466 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 545 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Maple Leafs45c146,371$65,867 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65,867.0440351.9%209 W · 194 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x03e8…1697backed Rangers55c109,307$59,838 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49,468.967051%342 W · 328 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Rangers55c88,642$48,502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40,140.0956152%292 W · 269 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked Rangers55c70,000$38,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,50048545.4%220 W · 265 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Maple Leafs45c70,000$31,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31,499.9936748%176 W · 191 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Rangers55c33,487$18,413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,073.711,19050.7%603 W · 587 L+13.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d1a…0df6backed Maple Leafs45c16,900$7,605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,6053262.5%20 W · 12 L+3.4wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+23.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Maple Leafs45c14,209$6,413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,412.991,43450.8%728 W · 706 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Maple Leafs45c12,546$5,647 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,646.9461950.1%310 W · 309 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Maple Leafs45c11,500$5,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,219.9761748.5%299 W · 318 L+0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Maple Leafs45c10,989$4,980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,980.281,55551.4%800 W · 755 L+12.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb68…a240backed Maple Leafs45c10,000$4,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,50050049.6%248 W · 252 L+16.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdcaf…e271backed Maple Leafs47c10,000$4,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,699.853661.1%22 W · 14 L+4.0wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+25.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xaa07…2125backed Maple Leafs45c9,709$4,369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,369.231,07049.9%534 W · 536 L+22.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Maple Leafs45c9,000$4,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,0501,44149.2%709 W · 732 L+6.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e6e…be00backed Rangers55c8,888$4,888 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,999.62763%17 W · 10 L+3.3wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+25.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Rangers55c8,000$4,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,60026058.8%153 W · 107 L+17.7wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x83ab…3d56backed Rangers55c6,000$3,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,7004949%24 W · 25 L+0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid+5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Maple Leafs49c5,994$2,935 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,935.4675251.7%389 W · 363 L-2.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Rangers51c5,934$3,026 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,907.121,34554.8%737 W · 608 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Rangers55c5,000$2,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,25089547%421 W · 474 L-18.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Rangers55c5,000$2,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,249.9927243.4%118 W · 154 L-16.8wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-11.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0a24…4a1fbacked Maple Leafs45c4,616$2,077 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,077.382025%5 W · 15 L-5.2wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-48.6%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x78ad…45ccbacked Maple Leafs45c4,500$2,025 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0251346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-25.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x44d6…9858backed Maple Leafs45c4,000$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,80029146.7%136 W · 155 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Rangers54c4,000$2,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,839.981,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Maple Leafs44c3,980$1,751 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,751.322,66451.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc339…ba5bbacked Maple Leafs45c3,931$1,769 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,7697149.3%35 W · 36 L-5.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-14%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc1b3…501cbacked Rangers56c3,700$2,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,6405253.8%28 W · 24 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5d1…cdc9backed Rangers55c3,671$2,014 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,656.733228.1%9 W · 23 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x10c4…efd9backed Maple Leafs45c3,427$1,542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5421428.6%4 W · 10 L-3.7wins-0.27per pick55cpaid-49.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Maple Leafs52c3,424$1,770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,769.6995049.1%466 W · 484 L+12.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Rangers38c3,087$1,173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,914.2112838.3%49 W · 79 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Rangers56c3,011$1,698 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,313.8839344.8%176 W · 217 L+23.3wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+1.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x56c2…17bfbacked Maple Leafs44c3,000$1,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,319.9325447.2%120 W · 134 L-1.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Maple Leafs64c2,902$1,854 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,853.7489355.5%496 W · 397 L+67.6wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+12.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcd79…7364backed Maple Leafs48c2,900$1,392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,392366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+39.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x796d…1499backed Rangers52c2,900$1,508 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3921100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Maple Leafs52c2,876$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50031550.8%160 W · 155 L-11.6wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Maple Leafs46c2,846$1,315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,315.181,10752%576 W · 531 L+63.9wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+7.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1d5c…4f26backed Rangers53c2,843$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,342.988748.3%42 W · 45 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Maple Leafs45c2,738$1,232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,231.8659450.8%302 W · 292 L+2.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Maple Leafs45c2,682$1,212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,211.6245751.6%236 W · 221 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Maple Leafs41c2,641$1,083 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,082.712,75447.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L+11.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x81f0…cbb1backed Maple Leafs45c2,600$1,170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,170.023348.5%16 W · 17 L-3.1wins-0.09per pick58cpaid-19.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x10d4…d953backed Maple Leafs45c2,550$1,148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,147.544551.2%228 W · 217 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Rangers55c2,500$1,375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,12584953.8%457 W · 392 L+20.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8738…222bbacked Maple Leafs60c2,500$1,499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,499.066949.3%34 W · 35 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb691…b39dbacked Maple Leafs4c2,485$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.686464.1%41 W · 23 L+4.9wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x244c…ab3ebacked Maple Leafs50c2,400$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf13a…d727backed Rangers50c2,400$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2001100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Maple Leafs45c2,200$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.7191653.9%494 W · 422 L+39.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2586…c893backed Rangers53c2,200$1,166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,03483652.8%441 W · 395 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Rangers48c2,148$1,026 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,122.161,30152.6%684 W · 617 L+23.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xabf5…cfebbacked Rangers55c2,000$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90027048.1%130 W · 140 L-8.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x733d…1ae7backed Maple Leafs45c2,000$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90021048.1%101 W · 109 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1418…6fefbacked Maple Leafs44c2,000$880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$879.9727850.4%140 W · 138 L+1.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc08…a137backed Maple Leafs57c1,986$1,124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,123.8730259.6%180 W · 122 L+31.0wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+16.7%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0xff80…9b4dbacked Rangers52c1,982$1,031 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$951.497258.3%42 W · 30 L+9.1wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+31.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Maple Leafs45c1,877$845 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$844.6579350.1%397 W · 396 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Rangers55c1,780$979 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80161959.1%366 W · 253 L+17.9wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Maple Leafs45c1,643$739 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$739.4241850%209 W · 209 L+7.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeca9…f74dbacked Maple Leafs45c1,556$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7002025%5 W · 15 L-5.2wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-48.6%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Maple Leafs45c1,500$675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67589249.9%445 W · 447 L+10.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Maple Leafs45c1,432$649 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$648.9528340.3%114 W · 169 L-24.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-26.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Maple Leafs1c1,396$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.311458.3%12 W · 133 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick5cpaid+135.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e5c…d8e6backed Rangers55c1,385$762 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$623.252445.8%11 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0673…0c27backed Maple Leafs49c1,354$661 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6611866.7%12 W · 6 L+2.4wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+29.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x597e…cd70backed Maple Leafs53c1,318$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7003661.1%22 W · 14 L+2.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+17%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a27…e9dabacked Rangers56c1,311$734 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$576.681471.4%10 W · 4 L+3.5wins+0.25per pick47cpaid+56.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Maple Leafs52c1,224$633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$633.263,70450.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L+105.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Maple Leafs45c1,204$544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$544.132,89451.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7cf3…e838backed Rangers56c1,175$658 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$517.031250%6 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Rangers54c1,131$611 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$520.3539752.1%207 W · 190 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Rangers55c1,111$611 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$499.9586649.9%432 W · 434 L+1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Maple Leafs1c1,107$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.812504.8%12 W · 238 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick2cpaid+159.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Maple Leafs45c1,096$493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$493.4266552%346 W · 319 L+8.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Rangers38c1,087$409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$677.6899638.2%380 W · 616 L-10.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1ad…6979backed Maple Leafs46c1,025$472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471.5529448.6%143 W · 151 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Maple Leafs47c1,004$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$469.5351949.5%257 W · 262 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7430…3af2backed Rangers55c1,000$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45015448.1%74 W · 80 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a17…1b84backed Rangers55c1,000$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4503756.8%21 W · 16 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe622…ea5ebacked Maple Leafs48c1,000$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48022352.9%118 W · 105 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf630…7e65backed Rangers55c1,000$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4501154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+31.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad40…a697backed Rangers56c1,000$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4401361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+11.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe278…b608backed Maple Leafs46c999.98$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$459.999157.1%52 W · 39 L+7.4wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+19.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc371…1e28backed Maple Leafs49c953.99$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$464.8725635.9%92 W · 164 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-22.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Rangers52c944.58$491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$453.462951.2%322 W · 307 L+18.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4fbe…b84fbacked Rangers56c892.86$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$392.8618258.2%106 W · 76 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xce50…b747backed Rangers56c892.86$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$392.868756.3%49 W · 38 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x021c…b735backed Rangers56c892.86$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$392.861752.9%9 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-11.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Rangers52c873$454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$419.041,38447.1%652 W · 732 L+25.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x76cb…83cfbacked Maple Leafs48c800$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3841145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x96d9…18a0backed Rangers55c800$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36024847.6%118 W · 130 L-7.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Maple Leafs45c777.78$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35043743%188 W · 249 L+16.7wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0580…ae8ebacked Maple Leafs48c770$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.61040%4 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-18.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdee0…94c7backed Rangers53c760$403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$357.2955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd604…4c2dbacked Maple Leafs48c755.9$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362.831435.7%5 W · 9 L-2.1wins-0.15per pick51cpaid-25.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1997…0d61backed Rangers53c750$398 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352.5683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.32per pick52cpaid+56.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb9b9…db66backed Rangers53c740$392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$347.8955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.