NHL · resolved market
Maple Leafs vs. Rangers: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x877be5221f9ec4489f3d6a36d27cab8bbc96cb40d0cd00480e24b8a1f5252596
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,475
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,475 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa89a…8667backed Over | 57c | 1,922$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$822.23 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5c…4f26backed Under | 46c | 1,631$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69ff…0d1dbacked Over | 59c | 1,534$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$633.59 | 271 | 50.2%136 W · 135 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Under | 43c | 974.39$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.61 | 1,377 | 49.1%676 W · 701 L | +39.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Under | 42c | 613.94$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.79 | 215 | 55.3%119 W · 96 L | +17.3wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 41c | 571.48$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.31 | 831 | 49.5%411 W · 420 L | -9.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5611…e5f4backed Over | 57c | 526.32$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.32 | 95 | 47.4%45 W · 50 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 36c | 282.11$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.67 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 43c | 275.77$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.69 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13e5…1ea5backed Over | 57c | 212.47$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.36 | 211 | 58.8%124 W · 87 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 42c | 156.88$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.43 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3036…15c2backed Over | 66c | 128.11$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.11 | 416 | 50.7%211 W · 205 L | +15.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd5…ef85backed Under | 17c | 104.51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 136 | 47.1%64 W · 72 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f5…6e03backed Over | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…110bbacked Under | 45c | 83.15$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.42 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6912…2aabbacked Under | 45c | 73.33$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +10.0wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 41c | 70.51$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.91 | 604 | 49.2%297 W · 307 L | -17.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x913f…916dbacked Over | 57c | 63.14$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.15 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5558…f9c4backed Under | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Over | 55c | 59$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.55 | 434 | 56%243 W · 191 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb858…7dc3backed Over | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 128 | 55.5%71 W · 57 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc990…80bbbacked Over | 57c | 42.09$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a6e…8fe0backed Over | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.23per pick | 54cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 44c | 31.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 44c | 28.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Over | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 185 | 47.6%88 W · 97 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce7…81a3backed Over | 57c | 23.54$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 88 | 55.7%49 W · 39 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 57c | 22.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 425 | 58.6%249 W · 176 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7132…f7f0backed Over | 57c | 21.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -7.9wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee5e…7f1cbacked Over | 57c | 21.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…ba79backed Over | 57c | 21.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 119 | 55.5%66 W · 53 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4861…4fcabacked Over | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 227 | 59.5%135 W · 92 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Maple Leafs vs. Rangers: O/U 5.5this page
- Maple Leafs vs. RangersRangers won
- Maple Leafs vs. Rangers: O/U 4.5Over won
- Maple Leafs vs. Rangers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Maple Leafs vs. Rangers: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Maple Leafs (-1.5)Rangers won
- Spread: Rangers (-1.5)Rangers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.