TailMyPicks

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Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Penn State Nittany Lions

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Penn State Nittany Lionsof Iowa Hawkeyes, Penn State Nittany Lions
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$85,402
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$88,242

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $85,402 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb729…4e2ebacked Penn State Nittany Lions37c10,892$4,066 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,825.698544.7%38 W · 47 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-9.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Iowa Hawkeyes48c5,738$2,727 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,726.9231837.7%120 W · 198 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-26.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x56fc…733ebacked Penn State Nittany Lions19c5,224$987 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,236.354560%27 W · 18 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+15.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Iowa Hawkeyes60c4,970$2,976 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,975.62,55541.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Penn State Nittany Lions20c2,366$468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,898.054,38240.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L+23.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked Iowa Hawkeyes69c1,964$1,356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,356.2249345.4%224 W · 269 L+7.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-15.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xecfa…3c6fbacked Penn State Nittany Lions17c1,700$287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,412.5955532.8%182 W · 373 L+15.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Penn State Nittany Lions23c1,613$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,237.6181528.8%235 W · 580 L-19.9wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-17%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Penn State Nittany Lions9c1,541$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,39531646.8%148 W · 168 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Penn State Nittany Lions37c1,436$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$905.5234943.3%151 W · 198 L-15.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-28.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Iowa Hawkeyes76c1,294$986 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$986.385,55347.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L+26.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9b7a…bc22backed Penn State Nittany Lions18c1,139$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$933.614325.9%37 W · 106 L-8.7wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-28.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd5a1…0544backed Penn State Nittany Lions17c1,128$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$936.0825946.3%120 W · 139 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x903f…de5fbacked Penn State Nittany Lions27c1,095$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$797.361442.9%6 W · 8 L+1.8wins+0.13per pick30cpaid+46.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Penn State Nittany Lions31c771.71$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$529.172,01250%1,006 W · 1,006 L+22.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa4a…0502backed Penn State Nittany Lions17c765.39$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$635.279444.7%42 W · 52 L+0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0eca…6a15backed Penn State Nittany Lions17c737.54$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$612.161442.9%6 W · 8 L+2.6wins+0.19per pick24cpaid+96.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Penn State Nittany Lions17c708.2$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$590.0442934.3%147 W · 282 L+21.3wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Penn State Nittany Lions37c675.69$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$428.452,12450.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L+40.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Penn State Nittany Lions14c630.23$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541.785,94649.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L+163.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Penn State Nittany Lions43c619.43$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$355.3777142.3%326 W · 445 L+2.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-17%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Penn State Nittany Lions17c584.7$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$485.1925130.7%77 W · 174 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-16.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b70…3102backed Iowa Hawkeyes52c423.19$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.089256.5%52 W · 40 L+4.8wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+8.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9d70…fdd9backed Iowa Hawkeyes65c366.9$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.7693247.3%441 W · 491 L-22.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa005…6646backed Iowa Hawkeyes23c355$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.8512540.8%51 W · 74 L+10.2wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+17.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x755a…6da6backed Penn State Nittany Lions25c317.9$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.4253635.6%191 W · 345 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+8.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Penn State Nittany Lions17c300$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2492,19433.4%733 W · 1,461 L+19.2wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb51…d2f5backed Iowa Hawkeyes73c263.93$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.665556.4%31 W · 24 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+9.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Penn State Nittany Lions15c250$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.593941.6%391 W · 548 L+25.4wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Penn State Nittany Lions76c248.04$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.91,53150.1%767 W · 764 L+34.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Iowa Hawkeyes72c229.03$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.944,84852.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L+139.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Iowa Hawkeyes75c228$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.683,90558.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L+165.3wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+4.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Penn State Nittany Lions27c217.63$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.473,68442.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L+32.6wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0a1…b711backed Penn State Nittany Lions23c213.58$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.46862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.8wins+0.36per pick27cpaid+128.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x24ca…5829backed Penn State Nittany Lions22c211.97$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16515551.6%80 W · 75 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+11.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c76…477abacked Iowa Hawkeyes48c200$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$965644.6%25 W · 31 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba86…9ab0backed Iowa Hawkeyes52c191.39$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.1320%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x223f…2050backed Penn State Nittany Lions21c176.87$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.370936.1%256 W · 453 L-27.3wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-16.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2246…e958backed Penn State Nittany Lions43c163.73$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.54560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x47cb…dfdabacked Iowa Hawkeyes65c157.92$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.0136535.9%131 W · 234 L+1.4wins0.00per pick36cpaid-18.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Iowa Hawkeyes78c154.12$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.923,38049.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L+30.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0370…d000backed Penn State Nittany Lions24c153.98$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.5794036.9%347 W · 593 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ec4…defabacked Penn State Nittany Lions17c139.31$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.6331537.8%119 W · 196 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1813…4dfebacked Iowa Hawkeyes78c134.87$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.9130054%162 W · 138 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80ff…82c2backed Penn State Nittany Lions16c125.29$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.54250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+217.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc383…c054backed Iowa Hawkeyes79c123.36$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.4519057.4%109 W · 81 L-10.0wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-7.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x37a3…2784backed Penn State Nittany Lions17c111.51$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.55650%3 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+121.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xda60…595cbacked Penn State Nittany Lions18c108.33$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.837045.7%32 W · 38 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+8.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xacbc…f6bfbacked Penn State Nittany Lions17c103.02$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.511030%3 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick25cpaid+38%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Penn State Nittany Lions17c99.7$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.751,31733.6%443 W · 874 L+14.9wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x217f…5301backed Penn State Nittany Lions17c99.51$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.591100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.83per pick17cpaid+488.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x39dc…fc23backed Iowa Hawkeyes75c99.34$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.5127358.6%160 W · 113 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Penn State Nittany Lions21c98.29$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.571,66736.4%607 W · 1,060 L-4.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Penn State Nittany Lions51c96.22$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.2969142.8%296 W · 395 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f1f…4a48backed Penn State Nittany Lions17c95.53$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.295520%11 W · 44 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick19cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff75…b615backed Iowa Hawkeyes52c95.31$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.563542.9%15 W · 20 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x004e…90f8backed Iowa Hawkeyes49c91.03$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.6119237%71 W · 121 L+0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid-7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf43c…d7c3backed Penn State Nittany Lions15c85.07$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.3149157.2%281 W · 210 L+18.9wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf8fd…d641backed Penn State Nittany Lions51c74.81$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.667663.2%48 W · 28 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed Penn State Nittany Lions49c74.35$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.135852%186 W · 172 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed Penn State Nittany Lions52c71.37$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.261,00355.3%555 W · 448 L+46.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+1.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe496…4d8bbacked Penn State Nittany Lions17c69.65$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.8117945.8%82 W · 97 L-0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe795…d019backed Penn State Nittany Lions24c69.55$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.86450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+45.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Penn State Nittany Lions22c65.98$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.564647.5%307 W · 339 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5581…c029backed Penn State Nittany Lions28c60.78$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.954035%14 W · 26 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6fa…88eabacked Penn State Nittany Lions28c59.88$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+77.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Penn State Nittany Lions50c58.15$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.112,00353.7%1,076 W · 927 L+101.7wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x551c…fe91backed Penn State Nittany Lions49c55.88$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.458372.3%60 W · 23 L+14.6wins+0.18per pick55cpaid+31.9%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x6c10…4e76backed Penn State Nittany Lions27c55.17$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.2820024%48 W · 152 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6436…aa37backed Penn State Nittany Lions45c52.08$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.645433.3%18 W · 36 L-5.9wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-28.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Penn State Nittany Lions22c50.43$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.531,24916.4%205 W · 1,044 L-189.4wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-51.1%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xa559…6dbbbacked Penn State Nittany Lions64c40$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.471655.3%396 W · 320 L+26.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+0.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Iowa Hawkeyes78c38.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.4119522.1%43 W · 152 L-36.3wins-0.19per pick41cpaid-53.7%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0xc036…7df5backed Iowa Hawkeyes73c34.01$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.831735.3%6 W · 11 L-2.9wins-0.17per pick52cpaid-11.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5c2c…0d72backed Iowa Hawkeyes66c28.72$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.931020%2 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.23per pick43cpaid-65.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8510…57e6backed Iowa Hawkeyes66c15.68$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.355056%28 W · 22 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+14.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2a4f…e1ffbacked Iowa Hawkeyes77c14.71$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3330%0 W · 3 L-2.1wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.