Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Iowa Hawkeyes (-9.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a80e62178f735fd82acaeb39468a93c6e5f8f4261c9faf88d1c4094306f5aa7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Penn State Nittany Lionsof Iowa Hawkeyes, Penn State Nittany Lions
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,944
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,188
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,944 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcb14…bd17backed Iowa Hawkeyes | 52c | 1,094$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568.7 | 163 | 50.9%83 W · 80 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Penn State Nittany Lions | 48c | 1,038$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.76 | 2,687 | 48.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Iowa Hawkeyes | 49c | 826$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.78 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked Penn State Nittany Lions | 52c | 414.85$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.13 | 488 | 55.1%269 W · 219 L | +17.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 51c | 407.26$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.56 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Penn State Nittany Lions | 53c | 165.54$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.23 | 349 | 52.1%182 W · 167 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56fc…733ebacked Penn State Nittany Lions | 52c | 150$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Iowa Hawkeyes | 47c | 109.49$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.46 | 1,296 | 45.1%584 W · 712 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Iowa Hawkeyes | 37c | 95$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.15 | 848 | 54.5%462 W · 386 L | +32.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 63c | 94.38$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.87 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6e…b1a7backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 53c | 94.19$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.63 | 144 | 48.6%70 W · 74 L | -12.5wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9405…c071backed Iowa Hawkeyes | 50c | 64.09$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.01 | 445 | 49.4%220 W · 225 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00d2…fe64backed Iowa Hawkeyes | 46c | 51.55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.71 | 80 | 55%44 W · 36 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Penn State Nittany Lions | 52c | 38.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.28 | 248 | 57.3%142 W · 106 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Iowa Hawkeyes (-9.5)this page
- Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Penn State Nittany LionsPenn State Nittany Lions won
- Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Penn State Nittany Lions: O/U 145.5Under won
- Spread: Iowa Hawkeyes (-10.5)Penn State Nittany Lions won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.