Golf · resolved market

Will Akshay Bhatia win the 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x17d4a44f40b32f0bbfea8bf6eefc2fb2facd5e74cdddc7f0c45f6b13f03cd750

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Mar 8, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Golfevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $58,978

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,978 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Golf is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Golf
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x3257…2f3bbacked Yes	26c	7,000$1,827 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,172.54	17	58.8%10 W · 7 L	+1.3wins	+0.08per pick	51cpaid	+10.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e1d…0c53backed Yes	25c	4,000$1,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,000	27	29.6%8 W · 19 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	29cpaid	-33.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x033f…618ebacked Yes	19c	3,234$605 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,629.52	225	46.7%105 W · 120 L	+5.6wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c57…5b16backed Yes	28c	1,962$555 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,406.5	20	25%5 W · 15 L	-1.4wins	-0.07per pick	32cpaid	-23.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8e33…5825backed No	70c	1,439$1,001 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,001.42	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.2wins	-0.24per pick	44cpaid	-73.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc16…40a5backed Yes	30c	1,316$400 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$915.78	20	20%4 W · 16 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	19cpaid	-41.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked No	76c	1,290$976 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$976.01	19	47.4%9 W · 10 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-25%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3bc7…3210backed Yes	32c	957.1$303 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$653.64	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.09per pick	41cpaid	+57.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd839…8fc8backed Yes	33c	915.11$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$615.11	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+1.3wins	+0.18per pick	25cpaid	+109.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x498b…52f6backed Yes	17c	861.86$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$711.86	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.2wins	+0.07per pick	27cpaid	+91.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd2a4…3ee9backed Yes	1c	800$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$789.4	172	26.7%46 W · 126 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	+19.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed No	62c	781.28$482 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$482.14	50	44%22 W · 28 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff75…b615backed Yes	31c	669.94$205 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$464.98	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-49.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40a7…ecb7backed Yes	40c	550$220 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$329.55	55	65.5%36 W · 19 L	+10.8wins	+0.20per pick	46cpaid	+123.7%equal weight	65+0.13 edge/pick
0x0a6f…72f2backed Yes	9c	546.9$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$496.9	22	27.3%6 W · 16 L	+1.8wins	+0.08per pick	19cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5661…5921backed Yes	18c	424.55$77 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$347.72	54	9.3%5 W · 49 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-76.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66df…9811backed Yes	47c	412.07$195 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$216.85	81	18.5%15 W · 66 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-37%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe046…5ea7backed Yes	17c	400$68 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$332	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.3wins	+0.06per pick	19cpaid	+47.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7eda…4bb7backed Yes	30c	311.9$95 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$216.89	49	18.4%9 W · 40 L	-3.1wins	-0.06per pick	25cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1344…e722backed Yes	9c	291.3$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$266.3	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+1.3wins	+0.27per pick	13cpaid	+314.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd263…54a7backed No	35c	250$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.25	19	57.9%11 W · 8 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	56cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9676…8349backed Yes	9c	223.85$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$203.85	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	-0.7wins	-0.05per pick	19cpaid	+51.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed No	59c	208.1$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122.77	34	11.8%4 W · 30 L	-4.0wins	-0.12per pick	24cpaid	-80.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x597a…5df0backed Yes	41c	192.71$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$112.75	18	22.2%4 W · 14 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-36.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7112…99dcbacked Yes	70c	177.81$125 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.81	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.19per pick	69cpaid	-28.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No	79c	161.47$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128.3	15	80%12 W · 3 L	+3.3wins	+0.22per pick	58cpaid	+43.8%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2375…691fbacked No	80c	157$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125.43	27	55.6%15 W · 12 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	56cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x38b2…0b43backed Yes	30c	143.33$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100.33	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.9wins	+0.17per pick	23cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe3da…0088backed Yes	26c	141.77$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$104.77	26	23.1%6 W · 20 L	+1.2wins	+0.05per pick	18cpaid	+9.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa0ac…1649backed Yes	71c	140.95$101 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.38	5	60%3 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	65cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67e3…e5b3backed Yes	20c	140$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$112.19	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+1.0wins	+0.20per pick	20cpaid	+69.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c0b…4d31backed No	45c	136.36$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.33	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.16per pick	49cpaid	-40.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x689d…b768backed No	69c	135.66$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.82	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.5wins	-0.30per pick	50cpaid	-63.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed No	75c	129.09$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.29	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-2.4wins	-0.35per pick	35cpaid	-100%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes	15c	124.06$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$105.84	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.6wins	+0.12per pick	8cpaid	+36.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9868…907ebacked Yes	34c	112.52$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$73.87	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	+0.3wins	+0.04per pick	11cpaid	-58.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b1e…e465backed No	25c	100$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	24	54.2%13 W · 11 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9f4…6534backed Yes	38c	82.8$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.26	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.4wins	+0.08per pick	32cpaid	-22.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa34d…b57fbacked No	44c	74.17$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.87	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-0.7wins	-0.09per pick	46cpaid	-33%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1eb9…af3cbacked Yes	34c	69.68$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.99	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.7wins	+0.66per pick	34cpaid	+194.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed Yes	60c	56.33$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.52	23	43.5%10 W · 13 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc253…5800backed Yes	46c	56.3$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.46	36	11.1%4 W · 32 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-44.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8975…ffe6backed No	76c	50.8$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.66	16	62.5%10 W · 6 L	-2.0wins	-0.13per pick	75cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed No	25c	45.49$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.27	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	+0.7wins	+0.08per pick	14cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x59fe…14fdbacked No	66c	44.99$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.49	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-1.1wins	-0.38per pick	72cpaid	-56.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Golf and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Akshay Bhatia win the 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event